Ripley94
15 Dec 2018
LSE:RTHM RTHM… XXXXXX Bounced back on share buy back at recent highs .
gerihatric
15 Dec 2018
H1 results I was at the AGM in London on July 13th and had the opportunity to listen to Mark Bonney on his assessment in inheriting RTHM with its recent acquisitions and his conclusions. I have just listened to the podcast of the interims and am encouraged by the summary. He is doing exactly what he said he would do. He has consolidated the businesses into one; he has reduced the head count considerably; he has promoted the talent from within; he has closed non viable countries and non profitable functions; he has worked hard on the integration of the acquisitions into one entity, and this process is all consolidated on the platform -which has top rating on the seller trust index. He is about half way on his cost reduction process and hopes to achieve near 80% by year end. The gross margin is up; the EBIDTA is greatly improved and they are getting closer to profitability. Cash will improve as costs are stable and receivables paid. As the SP rises he may well be looking for further acquisitions as part of the process of consolidation in the market place. Looks promising to me so I hold.
tptp
14 Dec 2018
H1 results Any thoughts here? Holder here. Seems they are making gradual but steady progress. The core business is likely already profitable and will generate cash as the integration process finalises, but we really need to see significant YOY growth to be assured of this companies future. Seeing the focus on quality and their new clients gives me hope. The market hasn’t reacted too well to it though and volume is back down to low levels. I’m grateful for the buy back as it might at least act as a deterrent to short selling. In the next financial year you would expect dividends and surely by then this SP will be £4-5. Seems sensible to hold. The current quarter is almost finished and normally an update is issued in January. Seeing as we did £86m in Q1, £89m in Q2 if we can do a nice round £100m in this strongest quarter it will further reassure the market of this companies progress, and put us well on track for consensus. I also hope they provide bottom line profit estimates like YUME used to do
Ripley94
04 Dec 2018
LSE:RTHM RTHM… XXXXXX Sheer luck there , and to think i was a little dissapionted it lifted . Was told chart indicated a good move after the sale.
Ripley94
30 Nov 2018
LSE:RTHM RTHM… XXXXXX This has been down below my little flutter entry many times since October ( my poor friend with a fortune in it keeps letting me know lol ) Saw it rise today and put a cheeky sale limit in 4.27 pm @ 180 which lifted @ 4.35 pm . I was a bit disappointed . He thinks i have made a mistake i hope so for his sake .
Ripley94
21 Oct 2018
LSE:RTHM RTHM… XXXXX Back to April lows of 174p its a wonder Share Prophets are not boasting .
Lostchord
21 Oct 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board In answer to your question Fillmyb, it’s basically down to supply and demand. On Friday someone wanted to sell a lot and marketmakers found a price at which other parties were prepared to buy. Demand is so low, it’s a buyers market. So, why sell a few weeks before we’re expecting the best results for years? There’s a question. Answer, a thousand reasons. I remember about a year ago, a contributor to one of these boards with the moniker ‘old timer’, decided to sell at 30p or so, old money, pre takeover. His explanation that the price would fall by a 1/3 post merger was totally illogical but he was proved to be right. Well done to him.
Lostchord
20 Oct 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board All of the regular contributors here have given up. I suspect that the revamp of the site coinciding with total frustration on the part of R1 PIs, drove them all away. I for one am massively disappointed with the lack of progress over the last six months. Back in April time, I was optimistic that FY19 would be the year. Management were very comfortable with market consensus numbers of 450m ish revenue and 50-60m ebitda. From that we could have expected free cash of 40-50m, PBT of 30m plus, and a realistic share price of £6 or more. Unfortunately that optimism has evaporated. The investor community has lost patience. Top line growth is king and it has to be organic and sustainable. It’s the best predictor of future profitability and without it the big players are not interested. Also, it’s a tough sector for tier two players. Google and Facebook will continue to dominate with other big players likely to emerge. Therefore it’s looking like crumbs off the table for the rest. Of those tier two players, some of the high profile ones such as Appnexus and Dataxu have thrown in the towel. Criteo are not in a great place and are looking to reinvent themselves. The only tier two player continuing to excite the market is TTD. With strong and profitable organic growth, successive quarters exceeding expectations and a CEO who is a wall st hero, TTD has achieved a P/E of 100 plus and a marcap of 5Billion. So what next for R1? Singer has brought in a couple of old dinasaurs with questionable track records and no sector expertise. Only one goal in mind, strip out as much cost as possible and as quickly as possible and find a buyer. Question is, how attractive a proposition will it be if the bottom line improvement is not clearly sustainable. Also, there are so many stagnating adtech businesses available, it’s a buyers market. I’m sure shareholders, including Tosca would take four quid right now and move on but that’s almost two and a half times the current price. The only way that management can recover some credibility in the short term and possibly move the price forward is with a share buy back. It’s the obvious move but only possible if they’re not bluffing about the numbers. If anyone has a more optimistic (but realistic) view, I’d love to hear it.
fillmyboots
19 Oct 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board So no discussion on why the price dropped today. Over on LSE there’s some but nothing useful.
Lostchord
15 Oct 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board So little belief left in R1 and it’s management. Only one way forward and that’s for management to prove we are genuinely generating cash by buying back the shares. If they are confident of adding 50m to the cash pile in FY19 then buying back 10m shares shouldn’t be an issue. One things for sure, another acquisition will kill us.
Lostchord
03 Oct 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board BB, have you had a chance to digest the latest TU? Looks like we’ve been misinformed by management. They seem to switch from consensus in the market to management expectations at will, without explanation. Management expectations always fall short of course. They are also quite happy to brazenly claim 50% revenue growth when in reality if we compare the Q2 revenue with the combined Yume and R1 revenues from the same period last year, we’ve actually shrunk. Evidence of organic growth is everything in this business and and the markets are not easily fooled. It looks like your 2+2=7 is looking more like 2+2=3 and your expectation of a 500m annual revenue run rate by the end of FY19 is wildly optimistic. All we can hope for now is that the cash position reflects the strong EBITDA forecast. With a total lack of Adtech expertise on the board, it looks like a repeat of Eric Singers window dressing exercise at Yume before we acquired them. Make the best of the bottom line, take a dividend and ask Deutsche Bank to find a buyer. Not the outcome that long term holders were hoping for but let’s hope they can find a cash buyer willing to pay a fiver and bring this saga to a conclusion.
Big_Bear
20 Aug 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board Reading these bulletin boards, it’s as if the recent July 13 Trading Update and AGM had never happened. To remind people, the first quarter trading update (TU) on July 13th showed a 41% increase in quarter-on-quarter top-line sales revenues (viz; $87m vs $61.5m). Yes, that really is a 41% increase in quarter-on-quarter sales revenue growth. (Note: Here I’m comparing Q12019 (April/May/June 2018) vs Q42018 (Jan/Feb/March 2018. As per the KPIs table shown in the July 13 TU, weblink below)}. [link] {As you know, the revenue figures for the successive quarters are calculated from the KPIs table given in the TU. Simply multiply Volume X Fill Rate X Price (CPM). So Q42018 (Jan/Feb/March 2018) = 7630.60 Billions X 0.24 X $3.36 avge price = $61.5 million revenue for Q42018. A similar calculation for the next quarter, Q12019, gives you $87 million revenues, which is a 41% increase over the previous March quarter}. What’s particularly good is that, on my calculations, we have an estimated 22% quarter-on-quarter increase EVEN AFTER we adjust for the effect of the June Quarter (April/May/June 2018) benefiting from having ONE extra month of revenues from Yume, {i.e. since the previous March quarter did not include YuMe’s January revenues, as we did not own YuMe until February 1st 2018}. So we’re still looking at an adjusted quarter-on-quarter sales revenues increase comfortably exceeding 20% {To elaborate, I’ve guessed $10 million or so of YuMe revenues in January 2018, see appendix note below. Which boosts the pro forma sales revenues comparative for the first quarter (Jan/Feb/March 2018) to $71.5 million. That gives us an adjusted 22% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, i.e. $87m vs $71.5m}. So it looks to me that we’re well on track with the FY2019 $430m revenue target……We’ve started the FY2019 ‘strong’ - just as the TU said. An adjusted 22% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth suggests considerable forward momentum, for the next 3 quarters. Indeed, starting with a base $87 million of sales revenues, a sustained 15% quarter-on-quarter sales growth over 3 quarters would take us to $247 million sales revenues for the second half, i.e. trending towards almost $500 million sales revenues annually, Of course, you would be right to point out that revenue growth without profit growth is pointless….Well, over the last year, the other story is that our gross margins have increased substantially, even as pricing has also jumped upwards. This ‘double positive’ effect (i.e. increased pricing and increased gross margin within that pricing) is further good news. The TU clearly shows that average pricing increased by over 50% in the year, including a 28% increase in the most recent quarter (i.e. $4.32 vs $3.36). And, no, that isn’t ‘hidden fees’ (as one basher keeps repeating), it’s because we’re adding in a lot of higher value mobile video and rich media inventory to the product offering. With a full year of YuMe to be included in the FY2019 result, I expect this margin growth to continue its upward trajectory. That’s because YuMe’s offering is even more focused on ‘premium’ higher value mobile video, rich media and Advanced TV – plus its direct selling strengths augment our PMP private marketplace offering (‘programmatic direct’). Historically, YuMe’s gross margins have been higher too, trending in the 42-50% range, (as you will see if you go back through YuMe’s quarterly 10Q reports for the last few years (these YuMe filings are still available on the SEC website)). The most recent annual results showed that gross margin in RhythmOne went up from an average 34% in FY 2017 to almost 41% in FY2018 (i.e. that’s an absolute increase of around 20% in absolute terms). With a full-year of YuMe now to be included in FY2019, and beyond, that’s a trend I would expect to continue (ref Ed Reginelli’s comment about future expected gross margin to settle down in the 42-43% range in June’s conference call, fast forward to 37 mins in). {I recommend you listen to this audio conference call (45 mins) on the RhythmOne investor relations website – Results Webcast - at: [link] {Note: As you know, gross margin is the difference between sales revenue and the direct costs of acquiring those revenues (i.e. the traffic acquisition costs (TAC) in the jargon). So it represents the cash contribution left after we give our publisher/content partners their share of the revenues from invoicing our agency/advertiser partners on the demand side. This cash contribution is used to cover our business overheads (operating expenses), with the surplus remaining (if any) representing our free cash flow to cover capital expenditure and shareholder profit (and possible dividends}. And another positive: Statements made in the June 14 conference call and Annual Report also told us to expect a reduction of 20% or so in annualised operating expenses on the combined business going forwards (Annual Report, page 67; see also the positive comments about future taxable profits in Deferred Tax note 20, pages 71-72, AR). All that together with annual revenues expected to be comfortably in excess of $400 million for FY2019 (i.e. for the 12 months to end-March, 2019). I look forward to the half-year results. I think the share price will re-rate sharply upwards as we continue to execute against the 2019 plan. Postscript: About the $10million assumed revenues for YuMe in January 2018, (being the month immediately before its acquisition by RhythmOne). As I stated, this is my best guess. We’ve not been given the specific January number. But we can work out (from the published numbers) that Yume’s revenues for the 4 months October 2017 to January 2018 inclusive were $40 million, so I reckon that $10 million or so is a reasonable guess for the January 2018 number….}.
Ripley94
13 Aug 2018
LSE:RTHM RTHM… XXXXX This has dropped back a little mid point in bbs
Ripley94
18 Jul 2018
LSE:RTHM RTHM… XXXXX Nice recent rise here past few days taking it back to 28 May level .
steve.duckett22
17 Jul 2018
Big Bear and this discussion board Hi Jon, nice to know someone is still active on this site. But does anyone know where Big Bear is? Last on here in March. As for today’s rise perhaps there is a realisation amongst investors that despite a slight lowering of future income forecasts, that KPI’s are being met and there is a definite upward trend in all key metrics and most importantly a significant increase in pricing. I think Q2 will also see a huge jump in volumes and higher pricing due to more CTV partners coming into play and the initial uncertainty of GDPR somewhat negated. I await the half yearly update in Oct/Nov with interest and a lot more confidence than I have felt for quite a while.
