II Editor
03 Apr 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Chart of the week: An upside surprise " Randgold tests significant supportThe precious metals have been on a tear since making lows mid-December and, of course, the big miners have been following suit. In particular, LSE:RSS:Randgold has rallied from £54 to £76 since then - a tidy ..."[link]
Wynford2
30 May 2016
The end for RSS Amazing now that this was 150p eight years ago. Just down, more down, and now down and out.Liquidation awaits[link]
Bruski 11
24 May 2016
Re: Gold Good to see the old names pop up on this thread. A number of my holdings of juniors, FOGL being a good example, RSS arguably another, are in the "too far gone but speculative" category for me. if I sold them today the recovery would be negligible. Sure you could place the recovery £ somewhere else but at the moment - doing so would be buying into the false dawn of credit / QE lead gains elsewhere in the market.......so the paper loss is part fundamentals and part nasty commod's bear - that hasn't really changed my conviction on the majority......so they stay in the portfolio. All it takes is a sharp turn of events in any one of EMEA countries for oil to recover, ditto gold etc etc.
BobbyC
20 Apr 2016
Re: Gold I have around 20 juniors but not that much in each one, the first of which I bought very end of February and then in March. The best performing is well over 50% up and there are a couple that have yet to join the party. Together, the portfolio is up around 20% so I am delighted but cannot take the credit as the stock picker was the service I linked in a previous post.As for market psychology, this is a nice post from the Gold Tent TA site which sums it up neatly:"Note the comment about sitting tight: “its extremely difficult to do”. You know I know the old Jesse Livermore quote better than anyone as I keep it under my pillow each night and hey my name is Plunger after all. But I have to say frankly , holding over the past 3 months has been about the easiest thing I have ever done.I have been cool as a cucumber sitting on my positions taken in early February. I haven’t felt rattled in the least. There has been no nail biting at all. I haven’t sat debating if I should go to cash to protect my gains. I have actually been somewhat amused reading the contrary opinion written by the sceptics and the bears. It has been interesting so see them become increasingly more shrill and militant the higher price has gone up. We have been called lemmings for remaining bullish and then within days witnessed said poster get crushed under his short position.The bearish group has scrambled to find data and arguments to support their position. Recently the data de jour has been the COT series. It has been infallible in the past right, after all the banks always win don’t they?However from the beginning, I recognized the essential difference this time was the role of market psychology. If this was indeed the first leg of a bull market the historical model would have most players who were burned in the previous bear to greet the new trend with scepticism. The model showed the market would never look back and correct, and allow this tortured group an entry they could be comfortable with. They would like to get in, but only at the old bear market price. They have become prisoners of the past bear market, through their damaged psyche. In other market bottoms of the past price action eventually forces this group to shed its bearishness and scepticism one at a time. Eventually they succumb to the reality and buy into the market and embrace its bullishness. This of course results in the boat getting one sided and triggers the first secondary reaction or even a cyclical bear market in the new established uptrend.So that’s the process I have recognized from the beginning. Their is no certainty that it continues to play out according to script, however, so far so good. When bears read this missive certainly the reaction will be violent ridicule and not reasoned discourse. That should tell you that we are on the right track.Now regarding to the above posters comments of selling the positions he has, what strikes me as the most significant, and he is starting to understand this himself, is what can really happen here. The concept of multiple baggers has alluded him. Folks, I suggest two books for you, 100 to 1 written in 1974 and Chris Mayer’s 100 baggers. One of the major takeaways is to get this type of return one has to stay in the stock….(duh)This is what is going to happen here ladies and gents. There are going to be multiple times return to a lot of these and you are going to have to turn off the bearish chorus and not let it bother you!"
Malkovich
12 Apr 2016
Re: Gold Yes, investor psychology is often (always?) key to success I think. It's always fascinating to talk to other investors who experienced the same set of circumstances and see very different outcomes - due solely to their 'animal spirits'.I think that the saviour for me is the fact that I trade within my SIPP so I am forced to have a long term view and I have been quite comfortable with sitting on paper losses. I have always chosen to invest in companies with a margin a safety (low debt, large cash balances, large director shareholdings etc) and have been prepared to wait (as it turned out, years) for the value, I know to be there, to be realised. I also have physical gold holdings through BullionVault and have added to those on the dips but have never sold into any strength.Fortunately, I only have one stock holding where the price absolutely collapsed, but I added to that in the lows of last year and am still confident it will come right this year.How many juniors are you currently holding?
BobbyC
12 Apr 2016
Re: Gold Interesting difference in psychology, probably due to our own experiences. I remained fully invested in physical gold & silver during the bear correction and bought a little more on dips but avoided the shares completely. I have therefore not had to live the extreme pain of any investor who lost a significant % (north of 50% for most, often higher) because they held on through thick and thin and did not buy on dips. Perhaps this makes one less fearful (and more objective?) because one sees incredible value. For someone who bought a share at 250p which is now worth 25p, it is of little consolation if the share moves 12.5p in a month. But, if you bought at 25p...!I subscribed to Spock Matrix in Mid-February, a couple of weeks after it came out. To get a free look at this guy's style and a selection of his picks, look here: [link]
Malkovich
12 Apr 2016
Re: Gold Hello BobbyUnlike you I have been very much invested over this long bear period. I have, however, bought into weakness and sold into strength and this has enabled me to build up quite big steaks in the likes of McEwen mining, Pretium and Premier Gold. Most of these positions are now in the black for me and looking good for the future.I'm not sure if I was totally uninvested I would have the confidence to go in to the same extent now, so on balance I am happy with the way it's gone.I'll have a look at Spock Matrix. Thanks.M
BobbyC
12 Apr 2016
Re: Gold Malkovich: having had the immense good fortune to have had zero gold shares during the long bear period, I am very excited to be in at the beginning of this bull. Here is my strong recommendation: [link] which has so far paid back multiples of the subscription fee.
Malkovich
11 Apr 2016
Re: Gold Hello BobbyLong time! Yes, it would appear that gold is once again the asset of choice. I am probably way over invested in junior gold miners, despite selling some into the recent strength, so am just sitting back waiting to enjoy the ride.I'm currently waiting for the time to get into oil - buying soon will give good rewards in a few years time I think.Good luck.M
BobbyC
24 Feb 2016
Re: Gold Hi, the gold bull seems to have begun again. Very exciting times ahead. Bought HMY at 2.50 and AU at 11.40, and now looking to invest in some choice juniors.
Dark Helmet
19 Mar 2015
RAB Interesting if not much cheer.Is RSS a cheap way into FOGL?[link]
