tornadotony
01 Jul 2015
Re: RSI now 20 I also just bought at 4205.75 Two lots. It was an average down move which I rarely do.
wannabe idiot
01 Jul 2015
Re: RSI now 20 I bought some just over 4200. I still do believe it's going into the 4100 (for a trendline meet) but meant to buy some around 4250 anyway (which I missed thanks to a little shopping trip)... so I bought 1 lot at 4200 just in case this unexpectedly bounces and will now buy two lots around 4100. Then its wait and see .. I have a few lots which can go in here ... but I'm saving some for HSBA and MRW which frustratingly hasn't done anywhere near as bad as the miners ... drat..
tornadotony
01 Jul 2015
RSI now 20 How oversold do they want this to go on next to no volume.
tornadotony
01 Jul 2015
Second longest downtrend in RRS The longest downtrend was in 2013 and closed after 9 months. The on-going downtrend which allows for some lower highs from last January is the second longest in time in the entire history of this stock.
tornadotony
01 Jul 2015
biggest retreat since the spring 2013 March June drop 2013 =1630pAutumn drop 2013 = 1425pSpring 2014 drop= 650pAutumn drop= 1325pDrop in 2015 is now 1450p.
tornadotony
30 Jun 2015
Randgold H2 The earnings profile in H2 is 50% higher than in H1 for Randgold. Q4 is 33% of annual production with Q3 some 10% higher than Q2. A lot of measures bear fruit during Q3 as improvements and increased production comes on line. USA close was 4261 so no respite as we end the second quarter. Current PE rate at 30x but forward PE is now 21x. A lot of Randgold stats mirror those of Centamin. Differences are higher capex spending and less dividend from Randgold. The cost profile per ounce is nearly identical. Centamin has a bit more cash than Randgold but they are likely to be similar by year end. Despite a lower gold price this year so far, increased production arising in H2 is likely to mean revenues near to those seen last year. Increased ore grade is a likely source of future growth in 2016 and 2017. The one thing the company can do little is a crashing gold price as markets in USA in particular aggressively short gold with ETF puts.
tornadotony
30 Jun 2015
Legal Cases Two involve Mali Government. The first litigation involves non-repayment of VAT of $116M. At least its down $7M from previous year. Roughly twice the scale of CEY litigation over fuel subsidy that goes on forever.The second case is trumped up by Mali over capital gains tax due. The same gimmick was used against Acacia by Tanzanian Government. This case is likely to go into International Court if Mali pursue it. The company solicitors say it has no legal foundation. I am sure RRS pays its taxes as a lot of taxes come off the accounts each year.The main source to increase production to 1.26M ounces might involve the new 4th underground mine. I calculate output at 145,000 ounces per year. RRS has no debt but only $82M in the bank as it spends $330M on capex and exploration. I think the figure was a lot lower for CEY. It implies more resource surprise for RRS.Tony
wannabe idiot
30 Jun 2015
Re: Gap of 18 June Cheers tony, I'm going to try and get clued up on the fundamentals soon as anticipating to put in a few lots here if I get the chance. There was some sort of a court case not too long ago, does that ring a bell... any update on this?
wannabe idiot
30 Jun 2015
Re: Gap of 18 June If I get 4250, I'll take a lot today. I think it is en route towards 4100s but it could gain some support on one of the trendlines in the meantime and perhaps a little bounce in the short-term...
tornadotony
30 Jun 2015
Has to turn at some point Since 2006 whenever a spring low was produced, randgold has changed trend before 6 july. In fact all other reversals arose before 30 June. In 2010 Randgold rose in the spring and slipped back in July to recover higher in September. Randgold has followed the same pattern in 2015 as all of the other years for a summer trend reversal.I have botched up the depth of this pull back but with so many gaps in the chart above to 4700 it should reverse soon. Income value is up 8%, the pound has declined since last summer by 4% and oil and other producing costs (such as 16% currency drop in Congo) can only work through to the bottom line price here.)AISC appears to be $791 per ounce with core costs below $698 per ounce. Tony
tornadotony
26 Jun 2015
4390 Buy Followed on from earlier 4403 Buy. (Both rebuys from 4478 ad 4462).
tornadotony
26 Jun 2015
In 2010 In 2010 Randgold was earning 1/3 of what it earns today and the SP was over 4700. Time to stop falling for goodness sake.
tornadotony
23 Jun 2015
Re: Gap of 18 June On the fundamentals the company has missed targets 5 quarters in a row. Several brokers are anticipating and have upgraded the current quarter output slightly as a time when the company will finally deliver against expectations. In fairness to the company they have been hit with an array of different issues which they have bar one put right. That one issue is power grid supply to one of its mines and it may in my opinion need to spend $10M or so and get its own generators. 2015-16 is a time of lower head grades to 3.6g/t that goes higher in later years. So they are saving good gold mine areas for higher future prices. Price of production overall is around $708 mark the AISC in the past was around $870. This may be the low going through we have a huge gap above us to 4502 to fill. Tony
wannabe idiot
19 Jun 2015
Gap of 18 June There's a small gap to 4436 and it is in the dangerous territory of getting sucked in. I have only two lots here which I'm just going to hold but will now hesitate to buy further until this gap is filled. From the bounce it had from 4424 to 4569, it failed to bounce on the 1st fib ... failed to bounce on 2nd fib and it will now be interesting to see if there's any remorse on the 3rd fib. This view though is very short term. The chart itself looks weak short-term, especially the move yesterday which seems to have put a spanner in the supporting trend line. Next supports are in the 4100s, 3900s and 3600s. I don't expect it to go there unless gold remains weak .. but if it does, these will probably be my next buy targets here .. Although I'll need to revisit the fundamentals before putting more money in ..
tornadotony
19 Jun 2015
4507, 4509 re-buys Re buying stock sold higher price at 4635. Do not want to be in whip saw out of play as eventually the trend will change sharply up and it may happen soon for Randgold.
