blue_sky
05 Jan 2017
Re: charting jaytrader, old trout I think if we take price action alone your scenario looks the more likely.However Tshipi is a fantastic success story that really isn't reflected in share price at moment.Production to increase from 650,000 tonnes 1st half to double 1.3 million plus 2nd halfcosts slashed to under 3DMTU break-even.Manganese up from 1.69 DMTU to over 9DMTU at one stage over 50% margins at 6DMTU so large margin of safety.Contrast this with as we stand an increase in market cap from £1.8 million to £2.7 million RRR share price. Shaking head in disbelief to be honest. 0.6% Tshipi for me worth £10 million all day for me and then rest of assets in for nothing. Have seen shares with assets none profitable pipe dreams move to £10 million-£20 million and here we are £2.8 million and here we are both thinking £5.6 million best case over next few months now, incredible. Lets hope people wake up to value when dividend paid and tshipi next figures out.
the old trout
05 Jan 2017
Re: charting jaytrader, old trout I can see it getting to your price target in due course blue sky, provided that sector wide recovery continues and there is sufficient flow of good news to sustain it. I think we should get to my (shorter term) target on the basis of anticipated returns from Jupiter, Shoat's Creek, and Colombia (there has to be some movement on that loan note soon surely?) but I suspect that we will need news from left field e.g Kenya or Greenland to get to higher levels. You might get your five waves but I suspect they will take a lot longer to play out than your 60-100 days, especially since we are now well into that period.Just my humble opinion of course,T
blue_sky
05 Jan 2017
Re: charting jaytrader, old trout Yes I should spend more time posting here really as 3 of us genuinely trading investing RRR and wanting the best but giving honest opinions, which is why we all post. I haven't sold a single share and don't have any sell orders below 1.15p, but maybe worth selling portion at that level as hadn't seen the cup handle you mention. But RRR does seem to trade at discount to intrinsic value. I think this gap will undoubtedly close so profits from these levels but is question of how much this gap closes.I think this is a rerate though and not a spike. My own valuation of RRR all things considered is 1.63p taking into account dilution,options etc 2.5p without dilution.From November 21st I felt there may be a 5 wave rerate on day chart over 60-100 days that would take us to 1.63p. For that to occur we need a break of spot 75 before march dividend like you say maybe shoats creek if very good be catalyst for that. Think if we dont break spot 75 before March dividend then maybe cup and handle formation and your 1.15p may be more realistic within that timeframe and 1.63p take longer maybe before end of 2017.
the old trout
04 Jan 2017
Re: charting jaytrader, old trout Hi Blue sky,Good to see some interaction on here. Chart formation looks like a classic cup and handle to me:[link] so if we get the breakout above the lip of the cup that suggests a price target of around 1.15. I have a feeling that the first catalyst might be news on Shoat's Creek as there have been some very large buys on Mayan lately which has quite a bit of exposure to it. We are also due some news on CML, which could come pretty soon I would imagine.ATB,T
blue_sky
04 Jan 2017
charting jaytrader, old trout Looking good from a technical view to me at these levels. Any thoughts?Also do you have any price targets from a daily, 60-100 days perspective?and weekly chart perspective 1-2 years?
blue_sky
02 Jan 2017
Re: jaytrader jupiter asset value as pro... Your welcome jay trader.You wouldn't think I could be accused of being a ramper with a well laid out valuation and then halving it, but thats exactly what i am being accused of over on the LSE board. There a funny bunch over there about 20 of them working in a co ordinated way who hold no or very little in way of shares. It should be pointed out that I am proposing a 1.63p valuation over there, but this is conservative when you consider I have attributed no value to the following. Jupiter is cash rich we have mt ida asset as you previously mentioned, shoats creek revenues to come, El Limon royalties and promissory note, potential developments in Kenya, shares in Goldstone resources and elephant oil. If anything my posts are a deramp.
jaytrader
01 Jan 2017
Re: jaytrader jupiter asset value as promise... Thanks for that Blue_sky. I think your £10m valuation can not be deemed ramping by anyone. Even your £10m is 3.7 times the RRR current valuation. I think Jupiter is well run and will deliver for its shareholders.
blue_sky
01 Jan 2017
jaytrader jupiter asset value as promised Looking forward to 2017.My expectations would be production of 2.8 million tonnes based on first half 650,000 tonnes Jupiter mines June presentation and November 21st RNS saying production for year was going to comfortably exceed 2 million tonnes i.e. more than 1.35 million tonnes for second half, could be higher though as production being ramped up second half and capacity increased to 3.6 million tonnes. So based on Tshipi 37% ore and price of 6 DMTU, would give the following2.8 million tonnes x 37% x 6DMTU = $621 million turnover. Costs in November 21st RNS stated to be under 3DMTU means profits of 50% =$310 million49% Jupiter cut of profits =$151.9 millionRRR 1.2% = $1.82 million.As you say 60 year mine life 14 x earnings seems reasonable = $25.51 millionexchange rate of 1.23$ to £ = £20.73 million.Should also be pointed out this is a rough guestimate and value and feed back valued, but DMTU price is currently well north of 6DMTU, our stake to me at very least seems worth £10 million.
blue_sky
29 Dec 2016
Demand from china Chinese Manganese imports for November increased by over 12% month on month.This at a time when production from Tshipi is being ramped up.Tshipi one of lowest quartile cost producers.Manganese price up over 300% from lows of this year.All bodes well for 2017.
the old trout
16 Dec 2016
Mining Maven Video This seems to have been put out yesterday but took place the day before RRR's results were published. AB is on from 15:52 to about 23 minutes in, with Q&A after he speaks.[link] on El Limon and Shoats Creek now overdue, so maybe will have an update on both next week.T
poetles
14 Dec 2016
Us We are all porns in someone elses game.
seagull jim
13 Dec 2016
Re: GRL Sale "Actions speak louder than words!"
fish lips
13 Dec 2016
Re: GRL Sale Maybe they needed the funds to pay for the Christmas Party!I'm sure AB will put out a news letter soon to put the spin on it. Also, why don't you email him? He usually does respond.
balderick
13 Dec 2016
GRL Sale RRR sold 1,350,000 shares in GRL to raise circa £15,000. I think that generates a loss of around 50% on the purchase price...Are RRR desperate for cash? Really confused by this sale. It makes no sense to me in light of their remaining holding. No news on MYN, no news on Elephant Oil, no news on GRL directors claim, no news on El Limon royalty payment or promissory note, no real news on Kenya...Had started to feel slightly more positive with the Jupiter news but that positivity is quickly disappearing again.
blue_sky
12 Dec 2016
Royalty payment mt ida jaytrader Hi Jaytrader, that is good news re Mt Ida, take on board what you say re patience be required there. Like you say lovely bonus to have that in the bottom drawer... AB seems a bit of a maverick, but RRR is a very attractive proposition for me right now. I bought on Tshipi alone but I keep finding extra bonus assets here and extra assets there that I have attributed zero balance too so far, never seen anything quite like it, now Mt Ida what else is hidden I ask myself, bit like looking in santas sack. This is going to take quite some time for me to unravel. I also noted your post on valuation of Tshipi. I think I can add some info where that is concerned, bit more research to do there, let you know what I find, What I can say is I think the shares are a strong buy on Tshipi alone. Just wish I was a bit more bold in my conviction here, low earner and cautious type.
