II Editor
20 Sep 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Why Rolls-Royce is a 'sell' "Half-year results at the end of July put a rocket under LSE:RR.:Rolls-Royce's share price, which surged by as much as 18% in one trading session. A massive transformation programme is underway designed to slash costs and simplify an impossibly ..."[link]
Hydrogen Economy
19 Sep 2016
RR to lose 200 Managers Part of the ongoing cost-cutting, I doubt it will be the last. I hope they don't throw out the baby with the bathwater, big Companies are pretty bad at understanding who really delivers in the organization, too often the image polishers inherit the earth whilst the quiet, effective hard working types the Company depends on are seen as without value.H2 (Note to self- Stop calling boss a dumb ....)[link]
nk1999
31 Aug 2016
Times- Tempus "Rolls-RoyceTwo more bits of conflicting news for Rolls-Royce, the aero-engine maker whose share price graph if replicated at altitude would be sure to induce airsickness.In one part of the Far East, Thai Airways has begun taking deliveries of the Airbus A350 for which Rolls, with its Trent XWB engines, is the exclusive provider. In another, All Nippon Airways is complaining that it could take years to mend its fleet of Boeing 787s with their Trent 1000 engines that Rolls supplies.---------- ---------- ------Even the company’s stockbroker, Morgan Stanley, admits that the argument is finely weighted. Recent research indicated a base valuation of 780p a share, with a bull case of £10.75 and a bear scenario of 440p. At last night’s close of 767½p, down 17p on the session, the stock is trading almost slap bang in the middle.If you believe in its long-term recovery, then Rolls is surely one of those stocks you accumulate on short-term share price weakness.MY ADVICE Buy on weaknessWHY The Rolls-Royce recovery will be a long haul"
Eadwig
26 Aug 2016
Re: Engine problems Heorot, "All responsible airlines will schedule these inspections as per the manufacturers recommendations. "They wouldn't get a license to operate in most countries if they didn't do scheduled maintenance on engines after so many hours of use ... or cycles if that's how they measure it now. Certainly not in Japan.Oh, hang on, if they're running the engines differently on short haul, then that might change the maintenance periods if measured in 'cycles' rather than hours. And if that extends the period, that could result in more corrosion than design specs. allowed for. Potentially, anyway, I suppose. Certain oils and other protections may degrade and need replacing or something.Dunno, it is hard to see that it would matter very much, given the safety margins built in to these things. Also, is it RR's fault if ANA are not using the correct product for the circumstances? Boeing will state the specs for their own aircraft, surely, and RR presumably meet their requirements and Boeing have signed off on that, and sold the planes to the customers, knowing how they are intended to be used? Odd story, altogether.
Heorot
26 Aug 2016
Re: Engine problems Gamesinvestor. The engine manufacturers determine how many cycles between engine inspections/maintenance. It doesn't matter if the flights are long or short, it's the number of cycles that matter. All responsible airlines will schedule these inspections as per the manufacturers recommendations. It doesn't matter if the engines are fine, the inspections/maintenance will still need to be done. Each time an aircraft is pulled for this, it costs the airline tens of thousands in lost revenue.
gamesinvestor
25 Aug 2016
Engine problems [link] problems are understood to relate to the way ANA uses the aircraft, with their airline using its 787s for shorter routes. This means that the engines go through more "cycles" than other operators, so the engines effectively age faster than if they were used on longer routes. This accelerates the amount of servicing they need. """Sounds like total tosh to me. Long Haul, or Short Haul, I can't see how that relates to the amount of corrosion build up on the blades. Looks like they need some new materials from the get go.Games -- yep this is going back to 600 ish at a rough guess
Eadwig
24 Aug 2016
Re: C919 Chinese Airliner Games, "Jose, Good input thx, but I've deployed all the RR cash already.!"No cash on hand, Games? I've been around 20% since prior to Brexit. I keep buying but taking profits too, and cash as a percentage of portfolio seems to stand still.I'll be having a look at Safran, Jose, thanks for the tip, because I also finally bailed from RR @860, relieved to get that extraordinary chance to get out at a small profit on that particular tranche. Thing is, I still am a big believer in civil aviation as one of the great growth stories of our generation, and I would like to be involved somewhere. RR was never very satisfactory, because there is too much else going on, though, I did make plenty from my investments over the last few years, so can't complain too much.
gamesinvestor
23 Aug 2016
Re: C919 Chinese Airliner "f you're bailing out of RR take a look at Safran. The company hasn't put a foot wrong for years now."Jose, Good input thx, but I've deployed all the RR cash already.Games
JoseFrio
23 Aug 2016
Re: C919 Chinese Airliner Hi Games,that "French outfit" is Safran. They and GE are 50% shareholders in CFM International, which supplies all the engines for the 737MAX and half the engines for the 320Neo. These plane types between them have an order pipeline of 8000.If you're bailing out of RR take a look at Safran. The company hasn't put a foot wrong for years now.
gamesinvestor
23 Aug 2016
Re: C919 Chinese Airliner "Something doesn't add up."EW - Probably right, I dunno, not really analysed it in depth, but the narrow body growth is a sickener for RR.I bailed out the cockpit at 860 and took some profit for the 2nd time now. Happy never to have lost on it so far. I'll probably wake up one morning and RR will be over 1000 but I'm not sure this is anytime soon, and possibly it will dip back below 700 before then.Games
Eadwig
22 Aug 2016
Re: C919 Chinese Airliner Games,RR doesn't do narrow body jets. What a disasterous strategic decision that is turning out to be - and always looked like it would be too to the most casual off on-lookers.I think the Airbus figures you quote are well off in their estimates - they are assigning only one eighth of the value of new jets to over one third of the global market share generated from around two thirds of the global population. Something doesn't add up.
gamesinvestor
22 Aug 2016
C919 Chinese Airliner GKN are building up to service the big growth projection in China, and in particular the Chinese homegrown aircraft like the C919[link] doesn't look great for RR, considering the engines for the C919 are built by a GE/French outfit."""According to forecasts from Airbus, the Asia-Pacific region will be worth almost $650bn - out of a global total of $5.2 trillion - and require about 13,000 new jets out worldwide market of 33,000. The bulk of these are smaller single-aisle airliners, with the greatest demand expected to come from China."""Games -- Unless RR. has a strategy to service over a third of the world market requiring smaller planes and much of the growth.
nk1999
11 Aug 2016
Morgan Stanley From ADVFN:"Rolls-Royce got a boost on Wednesday as Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to 'equalweight' from 'underweight' due to increased confidence on cash, and lifted the price target to 780p from 655p.In its note on the company back in June, MS had pointed out that there wasn't much room to manoeuvre before Rolls might be at risk of a further credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor's.However, the bank said that following better-than-expected first-half results, underpinned by XWB engines sold as spares at a cash profit, it sees an improved outlook for free cash and is no longer as concerned."Further, having spent a reasonable amount of time with the company post H1, it is clear management has a better handle on the levers that can be pulled for cash to improve going forward."Morgan Stanley said the trading cash outflow from Civil Aerospace in 2016 now seems unlikely to be as severe as it previously expected."The main change for us comes on the XWB programme where we hadn't appreciated the proportion of engines that will be sold as spares at a cash profit in the early years of the ramp-up, thus part offsetting the impact from engines sold on wing at a cash loss."As a result, the bank now expects Civil trading cash outflow of £87m versus a previous estimate of £180m, followed by an £11m inflow in 2017, versus a previous estimate of a £20m outflow."
MoleMan99
02 Aug 2016
Re: Dropping like a stone today In theory the weak sterling should help, but this whole debacle has highlighted the unfavourable hedging book they have built up.The whole time Sterling remains weak, they won't profit as they unwind hedges. the time they unwind it, sterling may be up and they'll get punished in the reverse direction.Staying out above 600p I think.
John_S
02 Aug 2016
Re: Dropping like a stone today I've always liked RR. having served my apprentiship there in the 60's. I've held stock since privitisation. However I thought last weeks price rise was too good to miss and sold 30% of my holding at £8.40. Deutsche Bank are giving a target price of £4.74 probably a bit too low in my opinion. I will probably be tempted back in at £6.50 ish.Technologically they are a world leading company, and the weakness of sterling must act in their favour.
