Hydrogen Economy
29 Nov 2017
Re: H1 Results Well that didn't last long did it.I managed to slice a few at 1011p and have now bought back more shares at same cost-maybe the fastest re-buy I've made.As they mention in the link below, "The market was not sure what to make of the results"Hard to see any big issues, I think one difficulty the market has is as with all acquisitive companies, the EPS may be rising fast, but are the purchases really adding value and maintaining ROI or just driving up debt. RPC stated "ROCE, at 15.1%, grew 30 bps compared with the same period last year and remains well ahead of the Group's weighted average cost of capital." 15.1% not bad but not fantastic.Net debt slightly up £1,070m (March 2017: £1,049m) representing a pro forma 1.8x EBITDA multiple (March 2017:1.8x).The other big issue not mentioned in the report is the environmental concern- maybe that is worrying the market, but it didn't just come to light today, so who knows. HoldingH2 [link]
The Dutchman
29 Nov 2017
Re: H1 Results yes, down 5%, what's happenning - or what have they seen in the numbers?
Hardboy
29 Nov 2017
Re: H1 Results Agreed, yet now the price has slipped back down.
Hydrogen Economy
29 Nov 2017
H1 Results Look excellent, market opening well up.EPS statutory/Adj numbers look high relative to the FY (53%-56% of FY forecasts), last year the H1 numbers were 40-45% of FY so I would say this is significant outperform, Reporting good increase in FCF and Int Div up 28%, Market must have made an inspired guess yesterday that results would be good !H2.
Hardboy
24 Nov 2017
Re: Does anyone think Let's see what the interims bring next week.
swiftbird
24 Nov 2017
Re: Does anyone think I think the market makers are taking the piss
evenlongershot
21 Nov 2017
Re: Does anyone think Sold out today with some gain (bought in earlier in the year just below 800) - for me it’s not so much how quickly these changes will come into effect but the inevitable negative sentiment that talk of change or regulation brings too. Packaging has had a fantastic fun over the last few years but there’s no doubt that the wasteful coffee cup culture will come under greater scrutiny. Once the market gets a whiff that it’s going to happen share price reacts accordingly. I’m out for now and put into SOLI on this morning’s share price dip presumably as a result of the lacklustre results. But I’m encouraged by the size of the future order book and the share price has been a lot higher.
swiftbird
20 Nov 2017
Re: Does anyone think H2 Thanks for your considered and helpful reply which I very much agree with. I noted that Sir David Attenborough was putting some rather alarming statistics forward about plastics in our oceans during his excellent Blue Planet 2 series last evening. Lots of negative vibes at the moment.
Hydrogen Economy
20 Nov 2017
Re: Does anyone think Swift"The proposed tax on single use plastic containers, about which the government are entering into a consultation process, will have an immediate detrimental effect upon our investment here"I wondered that when reading about the possible tax, looking at the geographic split of sales I think the answer is not so much short term.UK external sales were 736.1 GBP out of total 2742 as reported in FY March 17, just over 25%. The tax is mooted as a UK thing so should only affect that market. That might change if other parts of the world start to take similar measures. (Europe is over 85% of sales, I guess are more likely to follow suit than Trump's US or rest of world).Unclear if tax will be introduced and how dramatic the impact would be if it was introduced, the plastic bags charge did what it was supposed to. There would no doubt be significant reduction in the superfluous plastic packaging often used on products, but RPC has moved into more specialized, value adding aspects which is where the future and the profit no doubt lies. There may be some pressure on the industry and some may succumb to failure or consolidation, but in any event, the best performing businesses will always win out. RPC have been doing that and I think are well placed to take advantage whatever the outcome on tax in UK or elsewhere. H2
swiftbird
19 Nov 2017
Does anyone think that the proposed tax on single use plastic containers, about which the government are entering into a consultation process, will have an immediate detrimental effect upon our investment here. I guess we will find out soon enough.
Hydrogen Economy
15 Nov 2017
Capital Markets Presentation Capital Market Days held in London and NY over last couple of days, the main presentation is worth a read, acquisitions and industry consolidation are a key part of their strategy, the presentation gives good insight to RPCs aims and approach. They seems to have good discipline and criteria in making purchases, in 5 years out of 360 opportunities presented they studied 97 in detail and acquired 17. Purchases appear all with EV/EBITDA in range 6- 8. From 2013 after launch of Vision 2020 strategy, CAGR has been 29% on sales and 35% adjusted operating profit. (Although with significant acquisition costs and amortization)RPC has been drifting down for a couple of months after good recovery from a dip to 720p in July. I was starting to get concerned and considered reducing my holding, but hopefully yesterday's rise reflected some enthusiasm from funds after the CMD and the start of the next leg up. I'll wait and watch a little longer. H2[link]
Hydrogen Economy
28 Sep 2017
Pre-close statement Seemed very positive, I had planned to add so was surprised to see a dip at the open and happy to buy into it, now at 3.2% here. Market has since come to its senses and showing healthy rise, nice to have that happen after so many times achieving the opposite. RPC looks very good value to me, the consensus EPS forecasts suggest good growth. Analyst SP targets are 1120-1180p, mean 1146p which is pretty similar to what I get on DCF basis. Some currency risk (both sides) and subject to global growth but seems a good buy to me. Year Adjusted Reported2017 62.2p 37.1p (last results)2018 68.81p 52.4p 2019 75.05p 70.3pH2
The Dutchman
12 Sep 2017
Getting close to the TERP price With the shares at 943 today we are close back to the Theoretical ex Right Price of 980. In other words back to the price ( as adjusted) the day before the last rights issue and therefore have recovered almost all the losses caused by worries over the acquisition strategy, Leticia in particular and underlying trading performance. (share buybacks and significant divi increase will have helped !)
sharegardener
13 Aug 2017
Recent analysis RPC overview here from Phil Oakley. www.sharescope.co.uk/philoakley_article160.jspInteresting comments about earnings quality, ROCE and the effects of the 'Exceptionals'. This came out before the Q1 trading update on 19th July which has given some reassurance about the accounts. The sharebuyback will tend to flatter Earnings per Share which will have the effect of increasing the directors bonuses!.The Beneish M Score is something Im not familiar with but it is linked to work by Michael Jensen on accounting methods. Interesting topic but a lot of detail to grapple with. Overall, I still think RPC has competitive advantages particularly with their patented designs. They are also developing recyclable and biodegradable materials. The enlarged group needs to demonstrate organic growth and progressive debt reduction along with stronger cash flow and more clarity in the accounts - then I'll be happier!The FT also did a recent piece on company earnings:www.ft.com/content/5d56ce34-7932-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71and another by Terry Smith on AZN accountswww.ft.com/content/50319614-75d9-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71Looks like a lot of companies are trying to pull the wool over our eyes!SG
swiftbird
04 Aug 2017
Div Ex date Div Ex date is 10 August, record date is 11 August and payment is 1 September.
