Clued-in
16 Jan 2018
Berenberg still has a 920p price target (15% above current price) even though they cut today their target from 1120p !! Plastics of RPC standards will still be needed in very large quantities. We're not going back to the glass milk bottle !!
72_fastback
11 Jan 2018
Re: No idea I heard it on the radio, so it must be true...Jeremy Vine had the head of UK recycling association or somesuch on the other day.I think it's that it's difficult to recycle because it is either too small to be sorted by the machines and is low quality - I gather there's a lot more to plastic than the man in the street might think.I agree that local use of things like food containers is likely to be locally produced, but it's all the small nicknacks and excess packaging on everything made in China - toys, gadgets, household goods, tools etc etc that comes from China. They supply the world with this sort of stuff, we just buy our chicken pieces etc in supermarket packaging rather than loose from the butcher. (I know that's a generalisation.)We should all use less packaging - except that made by RPC obviously.Amcor, a Swiss-based Australian (and Aus listed) rigid plastics manufacturer, doesn't seem to have anything much over RPC but the share price hasn't taken a pasting, so perhaps it's just UK stocks being beaten up over the issue. SMDS (recycled paper packaging) is slightly down in the dumps, but not as much as RPC.
r21442
11 Jan 2018
Re: No idea Take your word on the low quality stuff fastback. Ergo it costs too much to recycle?Not sure either the balance of what China sends versus takes? Strikes me vast majority of packaging is local produce & use? Even if it is the case it will be specified by the consumer so still the West's issue.Anyway, digress. Are RPC doing any less well than the competition?
Hardboy
11 Jan 2018
Re: No idea I very much appreciate all the excellent comments on this subject. I think I've convinced my self that the bad press will see some changes to the world of plastic packaging, and in the short term will affect the RPC share price, but should not affect their business too greatly in deed it may create additional opportunities, so I am looking to add to my holding, but I will wait till this share price weakness had bottomed out.
72_fastback
11 Jan 2018
Re: No idea Plastic is a hot topic and getting a bad press - some of which is deserved, but not all.China won't accept our plastic for recycling anymore because what we sent there was the stuff that's difficult to recycle. But they sent most of it to us in the first place as packaging - and it is this low quality rubbish that is the problem.RPC doesn't make most of the 'problem plastic' - it makes lots of durable, reusable, recyclable or even biodegradable products (the coffee pods). Water bottle caps are probably their 'naughtiest' product.I can't see the world going back to metal toothpaste tubes and glass containers in a big way. They are even more energy intensive (I think - correct me if wrong) to manufacture than plastics.Are politicians really going to ban single use bottles? Water bottles get all the flak, but can you see a return to glass milk/squash bottles etc being a vote winner?As consumers we need to take more responsibility for our waste and as a nation we should ensure we minimise waste and recycle as much as possible - but that isn't going to stop the developing world from dumping lots of plastic in the sea.I am not adding more RPC as I already have a full allocation (although I am re-investing the divs) and as things stand am not planning on selling either.
r21442
11 Jan 2018
No idea Seems China has been stockpiling the waste that the West exports to them for recycling? Suggests to me that making from new may be / becoming cheaper than recycling?Really no idea but maybe there are some experts on here?
Hardboy
11 Jan 2018
Re: Confused CI: "Why would the electorate vote for an effective abolition of such packaging, they can't be that stupid ?"Given that the electorate vote for candidates (theoretically - more often parties) on a range of issues, this is unlikely to be the most important at any election. However it seems they already have. [link] Beach combing at Margate is more important than sorting out the defence budget. What they are suggesting is probably sensible, and long overdue, but the question for this discussion is how will this affect RPC's business?
Passive Investor
10 Jan 2018
Re: Confused "..need to be abolished and we'll all go back to the horse and cart."I have to point out that horses caused enormous pollution in London and was the main reason why motor vehicles were welcomed 
.
Hardboy
10 Jan 2018
Re: Confused H2 & Dutch, many thanks for your replies - I think we're thinking along the same lines. This is a good business, undervalued at the moment; but it could be undermined very quickly by ill informed politicians in response to a media circus. Every broker has it as but or strong buy, and when someone like David Buik singles it out as his share for the year, it really does have things going for it. I'm tempted to buy more at the current prices, but think I'll hold off to see if the share price descent shows some sign of levelling off. And if I was panicking, CI, I wouldn't have bothered posting, I'd just have pressed the sell button.
Hydrogen Economy
10 Jan 2018
Re: Confused I am also a little concerned by the continued fall, it seems likely that the current focus on plastics in the sea is contributing to the worry, whether any Government measures would have a big effect on RPC or not. The issue is broader than sea pollution, given the issues of landfill and exporting waste (to China in particular which the Chinese Govt are taking steps to stop). Looking at the 5yr chart (hopefully attached below), it is maybe not so surprising that there is such a fall following the recovery from the lows of early 2017 in the wake of the RI. If the SP drops through the resistance around 775p it would be a big concern. I would think it will turn before then based on the forecast earnings which suggest a valuation of 1000-1100. That could change is forecasts start to be revised down to reflect worries about growth and regulations, although the mean EPS estimates for 2017 and 18 were actually slightly raised in December.I'll hold and hopefully see a turnaround.H2
The Dutchman
10 Jan 2018
Re: Confused The public see pictures of all the plastic in the sea, and today's article in the D Tel showing a large increase in plastic washed up in Cornwall following the recent storms just adds to the overall picture. Yet If you walk along by the Thames or any other river you don't see tons of plastic waste. The UK is good at re-cycling or burying for good....... or, and here's the rub, exporting the contents of your re-cycling bin to China or India where they aren't so good at re-cycling or burying it. So maybe the stats showing that Europe is only responsible for 2% of the plastic waste in the sea is a tad misleading.As for the effect on RPC, I'm sure that the uncertain atmosphere all this has created is causing manufacturers of drinks, juices, foodstuffs, toiletries etc to hold back on redesigning their plastic packaging when they may have to move towards other packaging --- which I doubt is even possible in many cases.If I didn't already have a significant part of my portfolio invested in RPC I would be thinking of buying now, but as it is I'm thinking "how much pain can I take?"
Clued-in
10 Jan 2018
Re: Confused You seem to be panicking. People need plastic packaging - what else will they use ? Paper ? Cardboard ?, Glass ? Metal ? Plastic packaging is the most efficient. Why would the electorate vote for an effective abolition of such packaging, they can't be that stupid ? If politicians want to really sort out the pollution, etc..then motor vehicles / planes / trains, etc..need to be abolished and we'll all go back to the horse and cart. RPC and other plastic packaging manufacturers have a strong input into solutions also. They employ a lot of people. How are the cigarette manufacturers doing after years and years of cancer warnings ?!!
Hardboy
10 Jan 2018
Confused As the price has continued its general weakness I have been getting concerned about the plastic pollution problem; especially in the sea with all the recent publicity after the Attenborough documentaries. Looking on the RPC website is very reassuring they have a whole area devoted to sustainability with all sorts of statistics and details about what RPC are doing. This is very reassuring as far as they are on top of the problem, as much as anyone is, and they are not causing too much of it. I think they said the plastics in the sea problem is about 2% attributable to Europe which is where over 85% of the RPC business is; so on the face of it there should not be too much to worry about; and they are working as hard as anyone on trying to find solutions. (Much bigger problems in the UK is chewing gum - I'm all for banning that!) However the problem is Politicians who want to garner public opinion without really knowing what they are doing. (They'd rather spend a lot of time talking about the merits of putting 5p on a cup of take away coffee than sorting out national defence budget; or let 2 huge businesses know one way or another if an agreed take over can go ahead.) Ed Milliband effectively destroyed the UK coal industry when he was Secretary of State for energy and environment; without knowing how far the industry had got on reducing emissions from coal fired power stations; and this recent clamp down on diesel cars without giving the engine makers time to develop less particulate & nitrous compound emitting engines. I gather CO2 levels in London have already increased as drivers switch from diesel back to petrol. These political decisions are popular vote winners, not necessarily the right thing to do; and I fear this could happen with plastic packaging. So my brain says RPC is a good investment. They are well managed, have a successful growth record and are predicting further successful growth; and any threat to the business caused by legislation to reduce plastic pollution can be dealt with by RPC and the recent price weakness is a buying opportunity. However the threat of politicians (in all countries - I envisage a domino effect) introducing legislation which will be popular with the electorate, but may not achieve any difference in reality, could almost destroy the business. So I'm torn between buying more or selling the lot.
II Editor
05 Jan 2018
NEW ARTICLE: City legend names his top sector for 2018 "A year ago, you correctly called Trump an opportunity for markets. Still feel that way?Probably not because we've seen the three main indices make huge gains this year based on very little expectation and hope. The tax cuts have only just been ..."[link]
The Dutchman
03 Jan 2018
Re: Today's fall The chinese plastic waste ban has highlighted what's really happenning to our re-cycling efforts. Did I read that as much as 50% of our re-cycled waste ends up being shipped to China, well I suppose the real cost of shipping it is very low indeed as the ships and containers need to get back there in order to ship over the next consignments of manufactured goods.I'm sure it will have an impact on investment plans in this country, but what's the alternative ? In theory plastic milk bottles can be re-cycled into new ones, but it clearly hasn't been happening on anything like the scale required. What's the alternative for most of the plastic containers made by RPC? Metal, is that really any better? Cardboard? it's compostible but I cant see many cosmetics tubes or oil being in cardboard unless plastic coated which makes the problem even worse.
