old_punter
03 Jun 2018
IC says buy This week's IC says Arden Partners, the company broker, forecast 4.8p eps for 2018/19 and reckon the shares at 26p "now trade 50% below their implied share price based on their historic PE rating relative to the sector". A bit garbled but I suppose they are saying the shares should be 52p.
nk1999
31 May 2018
Re: Director buying More Director buying today - See the RNS this morning (in News link above).Looking positive.nk
old_punter
31 May 2018
Director buying Just noticed the FD bought after the results were announced and paid 26p for 190k shares, the only director deal for a year per the HL website. A positive sign.Would this share look expensive at say 10 times historic earnings given an improving story per management, operational gearing and well within borrowing covenants. If so, that would be a price of 45p. The shares were 40-55p previous 12 months up to February so perhaps not so unlikely. So, talking my book admittedly, despite a good rise following the results on Tuesday from 23p to 29p, I think much further to go.
old_punter
29 May 2018
Results 29th May Look a tad better than expected, basically an improving picture and well within borrowing covenants. No dividend because they say better to invest the money in the biz. Adjusted eps given as 4.5p, similar to previous year, so at 23.5p a p/e of 5.2 .I reckon a p/e of at least 7 is merited so my TP would be at least 31.5p. But WDIK and DYOR
old_punter
23 May 2018
Results 29th May These should be per the recent statement,so hopefully no unpleasant surprises. At 23p after such a big drop, the odds could be on some recovery in the price, a contrarian punt perhaps. But WDIK, we shall see.What do others think, if anybody is following this one at the moment. Its also a potential target for a bid as happened to Fenner.
nk1999
11 Mar 2018
Profit warning SP down 24% at 34p. View from Share Pro-phets:"The company argues “this is masking the positive effects of our strategic actions” - and its house broker, Arden Partners, reduces earnings per share forecasts by approaching 11%, to 4.4p, for the company’s year ending at the end of this month and approaching 20% for next year, to 4.8p. Noting a still sub 10x P/E, it though states “we remain positive” and “believe there is upside to FY19 if the group makes progress passing on pricing through the next 12 months”.However, it also admitted “there is limited visibility at this time. Net debt increases to £28m”. That equates to approaching 12.5p per share – and the half-year balance sheet also showed a still more than £100 million pension liability. As such, I currently remain cautious and continue to avoid."
wisechoiceguy
03 May 2017
Volume & Price Volume up big time in recent trading and price creeping up to not far off broker revised targets of 65 & 70p. Question now is will the price over-shoot the target price and if it does, is it an over-shoot of true price/value.....or just an over-shoot of broker 'plucked out of the air' target price?!I haven't set myself any targets yet, but watching closely to see if we get near 80's in which case I will probably consider selling some, but not all.WCG
Chiles
15 Feb 2017
Closure of Halifax couplings factory The closure was forecast in the November half-year report. Having checked but found nothing on the Company website, I checked elsewhere. Machinery Market magazine of 16 January, discloses that the decision has been confirmed with the loss of forty plus jobs. Some work still to do, I appreciate, but the planned consolidation at their Cardiff factory would follow. So another site released for sale or rent, to add to their Mulgrave Australian location. Beginning to seem that these managers can make things happen. I'm encouraged and the share price seems responsive.
Sinbab
15 Jan 2017
Re: IC View Whats not to like? Sentiment and price action still look good to me as does 68p (Numis is now calling for 70p) but wouldn't be surprised if we first see 44-46p on a backtest of breakout, not that I'll be holding my breadth. Monthly chart looks like a rounded bottom not that I'm calling for 180+. Time and patience! ATB @SinbSinbadweekly chart: [link] chart: [link]
nk1999
11 Dec 2016
IC View [link] in Renold (RNO) were marked up on the release of the group's half-year results, which may seem odd when you look at the past comparatives. But the supplier of industrial chains and power transmission products is undertaking a range of measures designed to lower its break-even point, and the numbers suggest that stability could be returning. Underlying revenues of £88m may have been down on the £92m generated in the first half of last year, but showed improvement over the second half (£87m), while adjusted operating profits were broadly flat. More encouraging is the order outlook for the chain division, due in part to the January acquisition of the tooth chain division of Aventics. The business, which is located in Gronau, Lower Saxony, provides niche industrial applications typically seen in bottling plants and other manufacturing facilities. The integration process has progressed smoothly, with improvements noticeable both in terms of sales and cost synergies. Renold remains one of the world's biggest producers of transmission, conveyor and leaf chains, yet its share of the global market is relatively small, reflecting industry-wide fragmentation. This presents opportunities to expand through acquisition, which now forms part of the group's re-jigged corporate strategy, as highlighted by the Aventics deal.Arden Partners expects adjusted profits of £13.2m for the year ending March 2017, leading to EPS of 4.8p, rising to £15.9m and 5.8p in 2018 (from £12.7m and 4.7p in FY2016). RENOLD (RNO)ORD PRICE:39.3pMARKET VALUE:£88.5mTOUCH:38.5p-40p12-MONTH HIGH:60pLOW: 29pDIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:23NET ASSET VALUE:*NET DEBT:£26.2mHalf-year to 30 SepTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)201584.54.61.6nil201688.32.70.9nil% change+4-41-44-Ex-div: -Payment: -*Negative shareholder funds, including intangible assets of £35m, or 16p a shareIC VIEW:There's a discernible improvement in corporate sentiment since the release of a somewhat downcast trading update in September that focused on cost-cutting initiatives. Management is confident it can meet current market expectations for the full year, but Renold remains a work in progress. Hold. Last IC view: Hold, 37p, 17 Feb 2016 "
Sinbab
09 Sep 2016
Re: Nice company - as an investment? Bill1703, I would add in the past 12 months management de-risked their pension liabilities with a buy in or longevity swap and this was done for all those individuals (50%) who had accrued a pension pot greater than £100k. But whether the remaining assets after dumping all their gilt holdings to pay for the insurance is sufficient to meet pension payments iover the long term remains to be seen!
Bill1703
09 Sep 2016
Re: Nice company - as an investment? "...perhaps there is a deeper story here -- anyone know what will change? "Games, I do have some of these - from a long time ago, and quite a bit higher up, sadly. Was a different trading - and pension scheme - environment then!There has been ongoing restructuring, a bit of a long haul obviously, and operationally I think they are in a much better place than they were maybe 2-3 years ago. But I suppose the key investment question then is twofold - is the pension deficit problem fully reflected in the SP? And even then, is it worth the ongoing uncertainty?The answer to the first part, for me, is yes - I would say the equity is currently worth more than the market cap plus pension liability. But perhaps not by much... and the answer to the second part is more difficult.It probably hinges on your view on pension deficits in general. Yes, they are long term cash liabilities - but the actual long term liability could be very different from the current valuation, and deficits are currently seriously inflated by abnormally low rates / bond yields. There is every chance this normalises over time, which could have a big positive impact on valuation, discounted back to today. But who knows when, by how much... and life expectancy could continue to surprise on the upside and put further upward pressure on DB schemes.I am generally more relaxed than some on deficits - as long as the underlying business is sound. People get spooked by situations like BHS, but that business was in terminal decline. I would probably be looking at RNO, if I didn't already have plenty - and indeed, I am currently looking at a couple of similar situations, where I would argue pension concerns weigh too heavily on the equity valuation.But equally, I see the argument that there are plenty more stocks to invest it, so why take on the long term uncertainty.
gamesinvestor
08 Sep 2016
Nice company - as an investment? Like what they do, but as an investment it looks impossible.The underlying debt and pension size/obligations make it almost impossible for the company to progress in what seems a pretty mature industry.Borrowings at £36M against an average of 5 years net after tax profit £4M (some 9 years) and that excludes the pension obligations which are huge compared to the size of the company, a legacy of an older company no doubt.Borrowings have risen sharply in 5 years from £14M to £36M -- that's 157% and the business has gone from revenue £210M to £165M -- a decline of some 26%What are they doing with all the money?Games -- perhaps there is a deeper story here -- anyone know what will change?
Sinbab
29 Aug 2016
Re: RNO vs BOY comparison Well that sees me back into both now. Just picked up a decent contract by GTC for RNO at 42.5 the other day. I reckon it has a good economic moat and following restructuring should have a bright and if not steady outlook FWIW. Looking for 80p but happy to see 68p again.ATB @SinbSinbad
rob1kenobe
15 Feb 2016
Re: Telegraph- Questor Renold at 71.25p+2.75p. Questor Says “Buy”. "...........you wish !!!!
