IOMINVESTCOM
05 Jun 2018
More headwinds for Royal Mail, says Liberum More headwinds for Royal Mail, says LiberumLiberum is predicting further headwinds for Royal Mail (RMG) and the productivity improvements are a stretch.Analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘sell’ recommendation and lowered the target price from 450p to 415p on the stock on a ‘more cautious outlook for letters revenue on GDPR’. The shares rose 3p to 499.4p yesterday.He said ‘general business uncertainty adds short-term headwinds to our longer-term bear case’ and that Royal Mail would struggle to ‘fully offset declining letters revenue with parcels growth, some of which is driving higher costs and adverse productivity’.‘The latter remains a key challenge, with the combination of pay rises, non-wage inflation, and working week reductions requiring productivity improvements well in excess of the historic achieved rate,’ said Khoo[link]
Fat Paul
04 Jun 2018
GDPR Judging by the amount of cr#p I am getting through my door about GDPR, I’d say Royal Mail are going to have a good couple of months on letters!
II Editor
03 Jun 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 4/06/2018 " THE FTSE, and talk of GOLD too. (FTSE:UKX) We do not often discuss GOLD in our headline section, other than the odd Big Picture update due to the price doing something stupid or confusing. Well guess what, it's proving stupid, confusing, and ..."[link]
onewayticket
25 May 2018
Bought for my income portfolio. I think there are a few playing games with the share price to increase the appeal of what will still be a very healthy dividend for any income portfolio. The last RMG update also mentioned progressive dividend which displays confidence. I've decided to pick up some up on the present weakness for that very purpose and to add to an income portfolio.Whereas I appreciate that RMG trade in many countries most of the goods that I order online is being delivered to my door by Royal Mail and the parcels division is faring well. This online trend seems to be behind high street store closures and looks set to continue as Marks and Spencers only in the last few days have become the most recent announcee of store closures over the next few years.Will add the same again on any consequent 10% falls."The Board is recommending a final dividend of 16.3 pence per ordinary share, payable on 31 August 2018 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 27 July 2018, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM on 19 July 2018. This gives a total dividend for the year of 24.0 pence."Own due diligence
IOMINVESTCOM
23 May 2018
JPMorgan Cazenove downgraded (Sharecast News) - JPMorgan Cazenove downgraded Royal Mail to 'neutral' from 'overweight' due to the recent re-rating in the share price, the lack of positive catalysts ahead and a more operationally challenging period.JPM, which upped its price target on the stock to 561p from 530p, said the revenue outlook for the company is broadly unchanged, with UKPIL revenue likely to remain around flat over time.It expects a stronger parcels environment - possibly due to temporary Amazon trends - to broadly offset a weaker letters market. In addition, it argued that incremental parcel revenue growth has a higher variable cost component, such that its ability to fall-through to profitability is more limited.As far as the cost outlook is concerned, JPM expects the rate of per-hour wage inflation at UKPIL to accelerate from 2.5% in FY18 to around 4.5% in the medium term. UKPIL cost inflation, meanwhile, is expected to accelerate by around 1% as a result of this, requiring approximately £70m of additional annual cost avoidance to hold profits flat over time."Combined with the revenue outlook...we believe this is likely to put downward pressure on profitability over the medium term," it said.JPM said that on its forecasts, Royal Mail trades on a free cash flow yield of about 7%, which is a similar level to peers.
IOMINVESTCOM
18 May 2018
Bigger push needed at Royal Mail, says Liberum Royal Mail (RMG) management is pushing for more productivity but Liberum believes more is needed to stop it missing target like last year.Analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘sell’ recommendation with a target price of 450p on the shares, which fell 6.1% to 561.4p yesterday.Full-year results were at the top end of the range, driven by better-than-expected performance in the parcels division and strong growth in its logistics arm.‘A mixed outlook has uncertain implications for consensus estimates,’ said Khoo. ‘Management expects parcels volume and revenue growth to at least match the previous year, but there is clear caution on letters, where the volume decline is seen at the worse end of the long-term range, with downside risk if business uncertainty persists.’He added that although ‘management is aiming at the upper end of its productivity improvement range’ after missing last year ‘we believe more is needed’.[link]
presneill31
17 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss B... Decided to sell my last 1000 that I bought on the market today only @554, but did sell yesterday @600 Short term its too risky to watch my profits disappear. Could recover to 575 but bigger risk of falling back to 500 imo. Still a good long term bet but I still have my free shares and share save which I will keep for the dividends. Will watch closely in the mean time.
rhino666
17 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss B... As a holder this is annoying but look at the chart - was trading below £4 about 6 months ago.Unfortunately I also hold Centrica and BT, so the relative situation requires deep breathing exercises.
presneill31
17 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss B... I have learnt from previous mistakes. Take profits and don't get greedy, be patient. As for the falling knife, done that one !!!
IOMINVESTCOM
17 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss B... Well played / traded Presneill31,Agree, that is a good plan of action which I usually follow but made a large paper loss and mistake buying SDRY to earlier on the 1st day of their drop and continued lower.Normally, I try to wait 3 days for the selling pressure to ease then to see where the SP finds support. So that would be my stance on RMG for you.Two reminders to myself 1) School boy error trying to catch a falling knife 2) Not waiting 3 days of declines to get attractive re-purchase price.atb
presneill31
17 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss B... Will wait for the turmoil to die down a bit before buying back. So many investors have big profits on RM that its not surprising there's been a bit of a sell off.Good results, forecasts pretty good for 2018. Good dividend too. It is hard to judge what is the fair value for RM is though, so will watch for now.
presneill31
16 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss B... Here we are about to find out if the heady rise will last. Sold 1000 today @600 to be on the safe side. Will be watching closely tomorrow with 2 recent sales if required. Quite happy to buy in higher if the outlook justifies it. Good luck all holders.
Lupo di mare
13 May 2018
Re: Royal Mail to deliver parcels boss Back ... Interesting news, we'll see. As a matter of interest, I learned, today, that in Finland, post is delivered on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.Not invested here, but looking at it.
deshulme
11 May 2018
Re: Mystery Buyers Pushing RM Stock High... "Perhaps a bit toppy now? " Not really even at todays price rise."That being the appointment of the GLS chairman Rico Back as chief executive. He is a hatchet man who slashed GLS to the bone with his business practice. There is always a price to pay. It is obvious the city has got wind of something that is going to make Royal Mail lots of money. Why do you think the so-called legal protections in the Agenda For Growth were not secured in the latest agreement??. They did not want to bind Moya Greens successor into any legal contract." KHFEDEX couple of years ago bought TNT express and said in a interview they would be looking at more companies in Europe to Expand there operation. Now Rico Beck has left the helm of GLS he may look at selling it and use the money to increase the technology base in UK and look at new ways to increase the work load.
Lensl
11 May 2018
Share price Why sell? The price has been strong for the last few weeks
