marktime1231
23 May 2019
Is it time to buy? Eeeek! That was why not, did not see another steep drop coming today. No place safe to hide right now. Added a final tranche of RMG at 202p and that is as brave as I intend to be.
marktime1231
22 May 2019
Is it time to buy? Added a tranche at 222p for the yummy dividend. Also added SSE at 1010p, caught me out by releasing results today as bad as expected and daring to blame not just Brexit but the threat of renationalisation. Despite which asset sales more than made up for declining revenues (actually mostly a £285M loss in something called Energy Portfolio Management … no, me neither). A final dividend of 68.2p ex-div 25 Jul to pay on 2 Sep. Future dividend rebased to 80p on a five year plan … so er um … at 1010p nearly an 8% foreward yield every year for the next 5 years. As that chap on tv used to say and why not?
marktime1231
22 May 2019
Is it time to buy? Boom. And phew. An incomprehensible reports of final results, you can pick what you want in terms of basic/adjusted/underlying/operating profit and eps. The headline I think is “as expected†so the decline as forecast and priced in. The surprise … a “rebase†of the dividend from 25p to 15p per year is part of a future 5 year plan. So the final dividend actually increased to 17p per share, ex-div 25 Jul to be paid 4 Sep. Marvellous. Except this appears to be funded by the emergence of a £300M net debt position. Bribing investors ahead of a rocky AGM and presumably eye-watering packages for the executive. Are staff happy, what about the renationalisation lobby, let’s get Alan Johnson to say a few words … restless no doubt, but distracted by British Steel. The future dividend policy is a basic 6.5% yield on a sp of 230p, more if cashflow exceeds targets. Investment in productivity and cost saving, expanding parcels business to offset the inevitable decline in letters. That actually sounds sensible and achievable to me, wonder if one or two analysts will be saying something similar in the coming weeks. A strong candidate for an add below 230p just as soon as my cash pot replenishes, vying with IAG or SSE. Or all three, meaning I will have to dump some existing stock parked in IUKD.
marktime1231
21 May 2019
Is it time to buy? A bit suspicious lots of quite small trades working the share price down before results day, to the point where the sell off has surely been overdone. If there was really realky bad news on the way RMG would have been obliged to tell us. This is speculator manipulation so someone can grab themselves a bargain, if I had the cash to hand I would have added again below 230p, and if the divi only gets trimmed by a third or so I might yet do so unless the sp recovers the 10% which it now owes us. A similar game being played with the sp of SSE ahead of its results on Friday. The stock market a big boy’s playground sometimes.
picstIoup
21 May 2019
Is it time to buy? Down 7% the day before results. Odd, not to say slightly suspicious. I’m tempted to dip my toe in, especially if they cut the divi tomorrow to a more sensible level and use some of the savings to reduce the debt. The land bank remains and must surely underpin the price at ~£2+? Will look at the results and may buy tomorrow if revenue decline is under 70% and the final divi is reduced to c8p.
marktime1231
14 Apr 2019
Is it time to buy? Just a note to say that while the sp has thankfully gathered to 260p it remains very volatile, we could quickly see 240p or 280p again. However, a recent report in the press about a hedge fund Exodus taking a 0.5% short position may be misleading … according to shorttracker Exodus and two other firms have unwound their short positions recently. Total short has closed from over 7% to under 5.5% this month if shorttracker is reporting this correctly. So maybe RMG has indeed been oversold, and recent stuttering improvements in sp as shorts close indicates that some big hedge traders agree. We will find out 22 May, but it does fell more and more like the dip into the 230’s last month was a bottom. Mind you if we do nip up past 280p I might be tempted to trim.
marktime1231
01 Apr 2019
Is it time to buy? Sorry UD but I am in today at 241p, because if we spend a week edging back up to 260p I would be kicking myself that I have missed an opportunity. I agree with the broker view that a dividend cut is on the cards, but is priced in at 240p. How deep the cut we will find out on 22 May. Fingers crossed for a nice surprise.
marktime1231
22 Mar 2019
Is it time to buy? OK I will take that as a Not Yet then! There will come a price when it will be too hard to ignore.
Uncle_Doug
22 Mar 2019
Is it time to buy? No. Stay well away. RMG are not competitively priced for their parcel business and will therefore lose out proportionately to the other companies. In addition the universal service they have to provide is holding them back. Banks, Utility companies and Councils are increasingly going online so less paper bills. People text and whassap these days rather than send letters. The Millennials don’t even bother with Christmas cards It’s a dying business and they also have legacy unions demanding high wages to contend with. Look at the SP decline. Just coz they’re cheap doesn’t make it a sound investment. It wasn’t a good idea to buy 4 yrs ago or 3 or 2 or 1 … so why do you think it is a good buy or “bargain basement†right now? Even their largely Sterling cash inflow is being hit by Brexit and the £ devaluing. Invest in companies that have an ability to grow and protect themselves from competition. Must admit I’m sorely tempted too - but so many reasons to say No.
marktime1231
21 Mar 2019
Is it time to buy? In other places the comment has been that RMG slipped back the last couple of days as a read across from a disappointing FedEx quarterly update with analyst focus on its poor European performance. Including the former TNT which has been difficult to integrate. Which is a bit daft, because as those commentators point out the volume of parcel and delivery business over Christmas is not shrinking is it, online ordering continuing to surge (NEXT announced today it does nearly as much business online as it does in its smart shops, where if anyone remembers you had to pay £2 just for a catalogue). FedEx were therefore losing out to what were described as better managed outfits exspecially DPD, UPS perhaps … and why not RMG? OK, lots of reasons why not RMG, but we are in serious bargain basement territory again below 250p. Even if they did have to trim the next dividend, even if they had to lop a third off, it would still be yielding over 6%. Sorely tempted.
marktime1231
14 Mar 2019
Is it time to buy? This has not been on my watchlist until alerted by a sudden upswing in RMG price today, a broker view that it was too cheap at 245p and could be valued conservatively at 270-280p. All sorts of potential problems including an underlying down trend in physical mail, but opportunities to cut costs and grow other business areas remain. Reduced earnings forecasts before exceptionals for the next couple of years at about £500M could still cover the current yield of 9%, and even a defensive 20% cut in payout would mean it is still an attractive income. A chance of a return to floatation level 330p would be a terrific reward. Or does the outlook without a successful cost savings programme outweigh the opportunity?
Gamesinvestor1
09 Oct 2018
Below float price Could be range bound for a long time, whilst there is doubt about the dividend being cut or frozen. Games
tynewalks
09 Oct 2018
Below float price RMG gapped down below 330 but has recovered slightly. The FTSE100 has closed down markedly for the last 3 sessions and the S&P500 has broken below a minor trendline, so not a positive background. There is also a gap above 351 which will be strong resistance.
Gamesinvestor1
09 Oct 2018
Below float price So apart from the divi, RMG is below it’s float price 5 years ago. Games
PXS_crazy
06 Oct 2018
Bought Back in! After 14 October, up to 10% RMG employee free shares will be flooded the market. MM and firms, like GLG partners, Eminence capital and etc, know that by selling now they can buy the shares back at a relatively lower price with a profit.
