cakeslicer
15 Jan 2018
Re: Results, trading update due out today I believe it is out 8.30am Sydney time which is 9.30pm tonight.
Rhigos
15 Jan 2018
Results, trading update due out today According to Telegraph and StockMarketWire.com there is a a trading update due out today. Does not seem to have materialised.
cakeslicer
15 Jan 2018
Re: back of an envelope Trueblog,you've been spot on with the Rio valuation.what's your view on BHP? currently at 16.50, are we close to correct valuation?Cake
The Dutchman
11 Jan 2018
Re: Today's rise All the big miners (Rio, Anglo, BHP) have been doing well since before Christmas. I'm up 18-23% on my initial forays into this sector in October. My trading approach is to buy more once the SP has gone up 5%, so I've now bought 3 tranches of each one. Originally I was buying for the high yield, but who's to complain!
Lupo di mare
11 Jan 2018
Today's rise "Rio Tinto gained 1.87% after receiving a binding offer from Liberty House for its Aluminum Dunkerque smelter in northern France."Plus, of course, global growth prospects.
Lupo di mare
03 Jan 2018
Re: back of an envelope Been struggling with this for some time - should I add. Seems as if I'm not the only one struggling with it.Certainly, China is moving towards using higher grade IO in their attempts to curb polution (less energy required), but countering that is, as said, miners increasing production of HGs - including Vale. Thankfully, they're further from China than BLT and RIO. It's a long haul from Brazil to Shanghai, or wherever. Twice took phosphates from Morocco to China, and ran out of domestic water on the way - bucket a day per person. I digress.But there's so much going on atm: Copper is expected to go into deficit in a couple of years, and Mongolia should come into some sort of production around 2020 - maybe. Good timing. That's going to be a real game-changer (copper). I can just see all those juicy car-charging cables being sought after by unpleasant types.Anyway, there's a nice dividend to be going on with. It might not make it in 2019, but you never know cash-flow might provide a SD to ease the temporary pain. Personally, I prefer this to BLT, of which I have some, purely as BLT has some 20% in oil/gas, and I'm way over invested in oilies right now - and have been for some time.
trueblog
03 Jan 2018
Re: back of an envelope Thanks. I'm not up on the CBB so no view I'm afraid.What the short term will bring is anybodies guess, I've given up trying to forecast the market as simply too hard IMO. What I do see is the underlying fundamental value in Rio (and BHP) which barring any 'Black Swan' events, and if the demand and supply hold up as I think they might, should be reflected in the sp at some point. In the meantime, dividends are your friend and counsel to remain patient!All Imo DYOR of course.I've learned that focussing on value rather than trying to trade the short term moves works much better for me at least.ATBTB
cakeslicer
30 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope Trueblog,Good to see your posts and your bullish forecasts. What's your view on the recent report back from China Beige Book on evidence CBB but seem like a credible outfit with a good track record on reporting?Interesting commentary in link below: [link] has moved nearly 16% in just 3 weeks and I wasn't expecting this move so quickly. Massive jump on last trading day of the year, wondering if it was some window dressing . The trend is definitely up but wonder if there will be a pullback before venturing above £40. 200 day MA at about £34 - tested it 3 weeks ago and then bounced off it .I'm still long but feels toppy at these levels. CheersCake
trueblog
29 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope Waiting for 4300 as I saidGLATB
trueblog
21 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope Isn't confirmation bias a lovely thing!Seriously though folks, have a peaceful Xmas and look forward to more drama in the New Year!ATB
trueblog
09 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope [link] bit volatile lately, but I still think that structurally the outlook is better than the market is pricing for?All IMO DYOR!
trueblog
05 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope Both Citibank and Rio’s Iron Ore head are now saying this openly, ie that there has been a structural shift.The Chinese are now forecasting a slight uptick in steel production next yearNotwithstanding the short term volatility this is looking good medium term for Rio and BHP imo[link]
trueblog
02 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope Thanks HE.I think the other thing is that there is growing evidence of a structural shift in the IO market.Rio and BHP have been saying it for some time, but I guess the market has been considering this as them talking up their own book.But listen to Robert Rennie from Westpac, who seems to have some decent credentials behind him.[link] the pollution curbs over winter are seen as successful in that they reduce pollution while still allowing mills to function by using largely high grade ore to maintain reasonable total output, then it could become a regular and predictable feature of the already very seasonal market.This would have a number of effects. It would make low grade domestic chinese producers deeply uneconomic, and make life very difficult for the marginal low grade producers (e.g. FMG) Maybe this is why FMG are now taking about increasing their target grade. OF course increasing their grade will reduce their total output, increase costs and reduce mine life. All of this increases the cost curve for IO. In addition the planned winter slowdown would have an effect of magnifying the normal rush to re-stock that normally happens early in the new year in China and this would also keep steel margins high and therefore encourage mills to use high grade to increase output.All of this potentially points to a structural change favouring a long term higher price for high grade IO even at current total demand, and with a likely reduction in total IO production largely because low grade and high cost miners are forced out.If we get to Jan/Feb with still a reasonably steady IOP, and historically low steel inventories then we could be in for a massive squeeze on the IOP when Chinese production ramps up again. Ignore the port inventories because they are not reflective of the availability of high grade ore which is what the mills want/ need.I'm confident enough of this premise to sit tight, with the comfort of a likely 6% dividend to cushion any short term volatility. Difficult to see where else to park funds with this risk/ benefit ratio and a reasonable dividend stream (perhaps Lloyds if the Brexit talks don't fall apart, or HSBC? Would like to get back into house builders but they never fall far enough for me to have an attractive entry point. I sold out of Apple after a 40% gain and don't want to exit Rio too soon!)All IMO BWTB
Hydrogen Economy
01 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope TrueblogGood to hear a view on the stock supported by reasoned arguments. The big positive for RIO is that they have production cost leadership on IO and good assts in other metals, so should perform relatively well even if IOP falls, long term that will be rewarded.GLH2
trueblog
01 Dec 2017
Re: back of an envelope Thanks HEYes I realise that markets are forward looking while dividends are historic, and furthermore the forecasting of div's is highly speculative.But it seems to me that a lot of downside is priced in to the current sp (i.e. a fall in IOP, currency etc.) while there is at least a reasonable indiction that there has been a structural change in the IO market favouring higher grades. As such I wonder if most of the risk is actually now to the upside, while at the same time the current SP is supported by at least a medium term prospect of very healthy 5%+ dividends and a return of 2-2.7B from the asset disposals.It seems to me the current sp is factoring in an IOP of around $55-$60I must be fairly unusual to have this sort of asymmetric risk in a high yield (albeit cyclical) stock?all IMOBWTB
