TwoSporrans
27 May 2018
Re: OPEC+Russian Supply Apologies, a correction:''In which case....why is Trump hopping up and down shouting for OPEC+R to cut back?Looks a great scenario for America First to me if they don't.''For ''cut back'' read ''produce more''.The Americans should stand to gain to extent THEY rather than OPEC+Russia produce more to check or lower the POO, if that is indeed the desired objective.[Trump could double up on the play by negotiating a win-win deal [as he loves those] with Xi where American oil&gas [along with Agric. prods and whatever else the Chinese might want] achieve favourable terms of trade in return for relaxation of threatened US tariffs. Note the incredible gap between WTI and Brent [and other very globally traded premium crudes]; almost $8/barrel now!!!! Indicates the advantage to USA of mass supplying the Asian markets....be they India, China and any in-between.]On Lagav's point about CAPEX and lags to resultant new production.Aren't they typically 5-7 years in cases of exploration for entirely new fields?Guess they are much less if just extending 'next door' within same, well explored basin and moreso if on land and environmental etc negotiations already concluded favourably.Still, even then, it's years rather than months.As Lagav says, operating fields will deplete meanwhile.With e.g. Shale its very much a case of quickly come....quickly go.Also, it takes a lot of $$$$ to maintain oil/gas infrastructure; a lot of these states with falling production are strapped for them.It was obvious Venezuela would hit the buffers hard when [was it a year or so ago?] the American contractors they depended upon for much of the maintenance withdrew.Maybe a surprise just how soon the devastating impact happened.Wonder what stories are unfurling in the more pressured of the other declining producers, like Angola, Nigeria or a troubled one like Libya.....or indeed will do in Iran to extent the world follows the Trump lead.The Saudis and Russkies may just be being a tad disingenuous in 'conceding' the magnitude of production increases they are mooting, as they know the above declines will inexorably run further and in some cases ever faster.And that's before whatever the full Iranian impact to be is accounted for.
Lagav16
26 May 2018
Re: OPEC+Russian Supply Sound reasoning - we're in a world where we have 2-3 swing producers (if we include USA) and a handful of big producers running ageing fields, with a lack of new projects, courtesy of the investment cuts a few years ago; even if Angola/Nigeria/Algeria/Mexico were all to sanction further developments NOW, then the effect would not be seen for years, in which time their existing fields will further deplete.If KSA want $80 oil, they can probably have it.
TwoSporrans
26 May 2018
OPEC+Russian Supply Will global supply be increased a lot from Q3 onwards by OPEC+Russia relaxing quotas?They are mooting different amounts; the Russkies favouring maybe twice [800k/b/day?] the Saudis [pretty modest] increase proposals.Putin says he's OK with a POO of $60/b; the Sheik likes the look of $80/b better, not least with 2019 and the S. Aramco IPO in prospect.But consider also: How much of the eradication of the oil glut is down to VOLUNTARY production cuts by them the past year or so?.Here's link to Global Producers [Sorry, not in % terms]:[link] so for the Big 3 one can say they could all jack up production pretty quickly.The Saudi's certainly have plenty spare capacity.The Russkies less so but enough to meet mooted increase as above.Americans.....well its market forces and as ever an abundance of info. on that.If they would be rapidly increasing with $70-$80/b to achieve balance near to that, they'd be fulfilling their much trumpeted role as the Global Swing Producer right?In which case....why is Trump hopping up and down shouting for OPEC+R to cut back? Looks a great scenario for America First to me if they don't.Whatever....it's worth noting that for years now a fair number of what are [or were] the top 10 or top 20 or so Oil/Gas producers have been pumping out ever less.Some are simply running out of available capacity or new reserves too costly to exploit; others experienced cut backs after the POO collapsed 4 years ago. Lately, others have experienced political-economic turmoils.Venezuela is the stand out case here with a veritable production implosion accelerating over the past 2 years or so.Dramatic though the Venezualan collapse is, it's far from the only example where recent cuts in output by the OPEC-Russia club are voluntary.[link] Nigeria, Algeria and Quatar are all producing less, for 1 or more of typical reasons above.More than this, apart from the Saudis, none of the bigger OPEC producers have much in way of spare capacity; they're all pumping to their max. or pretty much.Check this out:[link] one wonder just how enthusiastically the rest of the OPEC guys are going to receive the Saudi proposals to pump more come their June get together, let alone the Russkie lead.Then there's a number of big Non OPEC producers to contemplate.It surprised me to find China has been producing less since 2015:[link] is in real trouble:5 years ago pumped out nearly 3-mn bar./day; now struggling to meet 2-mn.Many Nation Oil-Cos shied away from CAPEX post 2014 when the POO dived [along with the 'independents'], hence their nations dwindled capacities now is largely explained.Comes across to me that most of these State Producers just aren't up to the job anyway.Unlike Shell which is operating to a POO [or POO equivalent] of under $50/b and looking to get that down to maybe mid $30's /b a decade hence.But even the likes of Shell have cherry picked their new developments very selectively.Plus e.g. this month selling off those higher cost Canadian Oil sands assets for $3+-bn to pay down debt: Another case in point of a leaner, more efficient company, gearing to remain profitable in a sub $50/b POO environment - over the full explo/dev/Production cycle.Anyway, getting back to the POO.The current retrace [+ that in the Shell SP] may just be a hiccup, regardless of what OPEC/russia decide or indeed how the Iranian situation pans out.I don't think the short term movements matter hugely.While the futures prices remain decidedly in backwardation [lower going out] this is a bullish signal for longer POO trend [though maybe a tad counter-intuitive; basically it costs more $$
TwoSporrans
26 May 2018
Plastics - Rapid Growth Driver of Oil/Gas demand With the past few days focus upon the prospective Supply side of the Oil/Gas Demand v Supply equation, most especially what impact an OPEC-Russian relaxation of their quotas may amount to, a reminder that Demand continues to grow robustly, price rises notwithstanding.As we know, there are many uses for OIL/Gas, apart from as an energy source.Here's a little to read about Plastics and the rapidly rising production of them: one estimate, 4 percent of global oil production is consumed as raw materials for plastic and an additional 4 percent provides energy to run plastics factories. [Note a lot of Gas is also consumed]This isn't a staggering % but consider the growth rate and where it's heading, next few years...decades :[link] there's fertilisers, paints, other synthetic fabrics, lubricants.....and more.Plenty of demand growth there too.
Saint Michael
23 May 2018
Re: Search for the Super battery You can see the video on YouTube:[link]
Omaha man
23 May 2018
Re: Search for the Super battery London's buses too would have been electric from early in the 20th century if the people in charge of the company hadn't been fraudsters rather than business people. How many thousands of lives would that have saved?Story is available on the site below, but you can only read the start unless you are a subscriber:[link]
IOMINVESTCOM
23 May 2018
German solar battery maker sonnen has secured 60 million euros Shell aims to boost investment in renewables* Solar firm wants to expand in Germany, other markets* Company aims to be profitable in Germany in two yearsVera EckertFRANKFURT, May 23 (Reuters) - German solar battery maker sonnen has secured 60 million euros ($71 million) in funds from Shell Ventures and existing shareholders to expand at home and abroad.Shell Ventures, a unit of the Anglo-Dutch oil major that has been boosting its investments in solar and other renewables, was a lead investor in the latest funding round, sonnen Chief executive Christoph Ostermann told Reuters."With this money, we can get started on important investment plans, especially in the United States and Australia," he said, adding that existing shareholders also contributed extra cash."We also want to invest in broadening our sonnen community and our virtual power plant (VPP), and expand our offering of grid-related services," the sonnen CEO said, adding that the firm aimed to turn a profit in Germany in two years.The company provides battery storage systems to households with rooftop solar panels and links up home-produced electricity to other solar users in Germany, Europe's biggest solar market.The company -- which also operates in Italy, France, Australia, Austria, Britain and the United States -- provides hardware and software to customers seeking more independence from power markets dominated by big utilities generating most of their electricity from fossil fuels.So far, sonnen has sold 30,000 batteries worldwide with combined capacity for 210 megawatts. This only equates to a small fossil-fuel power plant but it has potential to expand as storage becomes cheaper and generation becomes less centralised.The company has teamed up with grid companies to help iron out imbalances in transmission networks by aggregating battery owners to operate as a single "virtual" power plant.In 2016, sonnen received 76 million euros from investors, including China's Envision. Ostermann said the 76 million euros plus the latest funding round would cover investment for the next two years."It is important for us to have leg room, as we are a growth company and need to develop," he said.Other sonnen investors include Germany's eCapital and MVP, Dutch firm SET Ventures, Czech company Inven Capital, and GE Ventures, a unit of U.S. firm General Electric.The investment from Shell, which operates in 140 countries, would help sonnen expand into new areas, Ostermann said.The company boosted turnover by 65 percent to 65 million euros in 2017, outpacing growth in German solar battery sales of 30 percent, Ostermann said, adding that a stock market listing (IPO) was a possibility but was not on the immediate horizon.($1 = 0.8480 euros) (Reporting by Vera Eckert Editing by Edmund Blair)
Hardboy
22 May 2018
Re: Search for the Super battery In the programme they actually took a 100+ year old electric car owned by Jay Leno out on to the roads. Looked immaculate.
J Westlock
22 May 2018
Re: Search for the Super battery Hardboy,Yes Hardboy, early electric cars were around in relatively small numbers for about 70 years before ICE vehicles became dominant... and it looks like ICE cars will have lasted 100 years before being replaced by electric... or maybe hydrogen... or both.PS. If you go to the Porsche Museum in Stuttgart you can see a 120 year old electric Porsche... looks more like a carriage though.
Hardboy
22 May 2018
Search for the Super battery I've just watched a documentary with the above title on PBS. A bit simplistic, but very good at showing the pitfalls of current technology and the range of options still being researched. It turns out things haven't changed that much since I knew the market 35 years ago. Trying to find a battery which offers greater power per weight than the traditional lead acid battery is easy enough; but finding one which is safe & stable is another matter. Things have improved a lot, but the old problems are still there. One thing they highlighted was someone who had developed a lithium ion battery with a solid electrolyte, which makes far safer and more stable. Of course the electrolyte is a kind of plastic which comes from a fossil fuel source. For anyone interested in the future options available for electricity production it is worth viewing. (Probably 60 minutes + adverts.)One thing I did not know was that in the early days of the motor car, battery power & petrol power were running pretty equal (till some guy called Ford won the contest for patrol) and there were recharging stations all over New York.
dronaig
21 May 2018
Re: DRIP Food for thoughtI think with high SPs across the 'portfolio' I'm going to opt out of auto re invest for time being.With the cash I might have looked for some high yielding Oil co - but will have to think elsewhere - got too much in Shell /BP
Joatmon
21 May 2018
Oil for plastics also There will always be a demand for oil because it is ubiquitous - not just a fuel:"2020, the average car will incorporate nearly 350 kg of plastics, up from 200 kg in 2014, according to analyst IHS Chemical (Englewood CO)."
shareordie
21 May 2018
Re: DRIP After the stock market crash when everything was cheap then I set everything to re invest dividends, but as time as gone on and things aren't so cheap I set to hold in account and let them accumulate until one of my holdings has a bad day and is looking good value.iii is good for this as you get trading credits.
Joatmon
21 May 2018
Re: DRIP I agree I prefer to take the cash and then take advantage of any price weakness to re-invest in Shell or other shares.
FRTEB
20 May 2018
Re: DRIP I never auto-reinvest dividends. I prefer to let them accumulate and then buy something when the price is favourable.
