Rainbow Rare Earths Live Discussion

Eadwig 13 Nov 2019

Buying Eadwig: Very early Jan, 2017 I think it must have been and was 10pps if I remember correctly. That is correct above, but I don’t think I did buy at the IPO now I’ve thought about it some more, I watched a little while then bought in a few weeks later. I’ve been in and out ever since. There is a possible catalyst due early next year if they are signed off as a JORC resource after test drilling and I’m waiting for that as USA/China seems to be more friendly again. No point in hanging around, imo, as once the drill testing is complete they’re going to come back to the market for a load more cash for a different mining approach and I’m not really interested. As I said, I’m only here for the potential 100%-200% or more rise on the back of a china/USA trade negotiation break down. Just a little bit invested here hedges my much larger positions in GLEN and any loss here if that doesn’t play out will be minor in terms of overall portfolio.

Eadwig 13 Nov 2019

Buying Ripley94: What was the IPO price ? from a little look on here was it in 2017 Very early Jan, 2017 I think it must have been and was 10pps if I remember correctly.

Ripley94 13 Nov 2019

Buying Hi Eadwig. What was the IPO price ? from a little look on here was it in 2017

Eadwig 03 Nov 2019

Buying Ripley94: 2.65p now. Part of a post I made elsewhere on Friday … basically expect them to come back for a lot more cash next year … probably … They’ve certainly admitted that the original plan to use mostly manual labour and evaluating a possible JORC compliance as they go, essentially prospecting as they mine, has not worked out for various reasons. Mainly a) the ‘unique’ seams or veins of high grade ore they expected to be there were, but are more eroded than expected and b) logistics of hauling pay dirt to the plant on bad roads in a region that gets heavy rains at various parts of the year has just not worked out to be efficient (difficult to know why they didn’t foresee that, frankly). So, they are now looking at the potential for mining the whole site in a completely different way requiring a lot of machinery. Essentially I read that as picking up all the earth around the veins to collect the eroded material from the original veins. That means a lot more dirt to be moved, much of which will be at a lot lower grade. That in turn means the ‘wash plant’ (it doesn’t actually use water) is likely to not have the capacity required either. That wash plant was a major purchase out of the original IPO raise. Buying all the machinery required is VERY expensive and it has to be delivered to the middle of nowhere. The same goes for fuel to run that machinery. They are laying off some workers, but frankly the costs ‘savings’ mentioned must be negligible at Burundi wages, plus they are still obliged to support certain social schemes locally anyway. Remember this whole project was based on funding of just a handful of millions of dollars. I watch an excellent reality show/documentary called ‘Gold Rush’ that follows the fortunes of some small gold mining operations in Alaska. This season one of the companies was forced to open up a bigger than normal ‘cut’ at the beginning of the mining season and they used $500,000 in fuel in just 2-3 weeks. Last year the company had total revenues of about $9m. A couple of D10 dozers, a couple of excavators, a loader, a wash plant and 4 or 5 ‘rock trucks’, a water pump or two; these things burn diesel like there is no tomorrow (maybe there wont be the amount of pollution they put out!) and fuel in Alaska, no doubt like Burundi, is very expensive because of the cost of transporting it to the back of beyond. A CAT D10 dozer costs about $1.5m new, a Volvo rock truck is about $600,000 … RBW started with one ‘back-hoe’ (a kind of small combination of an excavator and loader like you might see on road works in the UK), about 50 manual workers doing bench cuts following relatively thin veins (so not much material to transport) and a wash plant that had to be made in, and shipped from, South Africa and was designed to process very high grade ore. "As previously indicated, production levels are expected to be reduced whilst the Company performs the work necessary to achieve higher production target levels as it moves its focus from high-grade vein mining to a more broad, mechanised operation … " “In order to achieve the transformation to a mechanised operation, the Company is undertaking detailed geological work to establish a drill area that will support this strategy.” A core sample drilling rig is very expensive to hire and run also - as was detailed in the IPO and was the main reason for rejecting such an approach and instead going for the production/prospecting-as-they-mine model, as I outline above, which at that time seemed more sensible given the scattered, thin, but very high grade veins they expected to find. “This exploration programme will be supervised by Malcolm Titley, the former head of mining consultant CSA Global (“CSA”) in the UK, and by CSA Global itself, with the immediate aim of generating a prioritised ranking of exploration targets in order to complete a JORC-compliant Resource in early 2020, that will support the targeted production levels.” So, this is an admission that the first approach hasn’t worked (we knew that from the last RNS). It is also possible that if they can’t prove a JORC compliant resource, the whole project may fold. Mr Titley isn’t going to come cheap (Lynas also used him on their 3% grade mine). Along with his expenses, he probably is being paid as much as half the local workers put together. If they prove a JORC compliant resource and decide it is a commercial prospect to mine in the way I suggest they are now thinking of (and you wouldn’t drill like this if you weren’t thinking of that kind of large scale open-cast approach) then there is no way they can proceed without coming back to the markets for a LOT more cash - or raising the money in some other manner. Nothing particularly wrong with that and they have a little revenue coming in meantime, but they are no longer ahead of many other, now similar, larger projects which was one of their selling points initially. They do still have the take-off agreement with Thyssenkrup (however you spell it) for 5000 tonnes a year plus first refusal on the next 5000 tonnes. That agreement still has about 7 or 8 years to run, but does require a guaranteed grade of ore which I don’t think the current ‘wash plant’ can achieve if they are putting all the pay dirt through it, the high grade stuff and the lower grade surrounding material which the new plan appears to call for. I did some calculations on the wash plant capacity which I’ll try and dig up on the old ii boards if I can, but I suspect they may be looking at two plants, a new one for the much greater bulk of lower grade material they have to process and the old one for perhaps finishing off what comes from the new one, or possibly they still plan to pull out the high grade vein material separately and just put that through the old plant, which is what it was designed for. Bottom line, I think this is still a play on USA/China trade talks breaking down and rare earths being used as leverage … and the most recent noises from that arena appear to be indicating the possibility of a deal and less hostile relations. So, it could be time to exit right now and take any losses before they become too great (I’m about 20% down I think, but only have a small amount invested) or stick with it and very possibly see it triple overnight as it did when rare earths were mentioned in the talks previously. I think I will hold on for the latter, as it works as a hedge for me (on any major further breakdown in USA/China trading relations), but I don’t think I’ll be throwing cash at it when the time comes … they really will need to do a whole new prospectus I think, so perhaps there will be time to look at it and decide based on any successful JORC compliance details, but I’ve never been involved with RBW based on the mining prospects - its always been about the chances of such a small company involved with rare earths being hyped in the media and my taking advantage of the price fluctuations that causes in a microcap listed company. Lastly, the release of the JORC compliance details (expected early 2020) might be a catalyst in itself depending on what they find. I would expect Mr. Titley, the ‘competent person’ required to sign off on the results, will be blown away by the grades compared to everything else he’s ever worked on, so he might help us there (with the hype), especially if his drill holes luckily hit a number of the actual high grade veins rather than just sampling the rest of the earth around them!

Ripley94 03 Nov 2019

Buying News from proactive invester to phone.

Eadwig 09 Sep 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) Buying in Euros or ASD has the same risk for me which is that my money is mostly GBP and it is that which is volatile and unpredictable, not the Euro or Australian dollar.

Ripley94 31 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) Do you think its better price wise dealing on the “home market” Eadwig. I guess with this one if you buy on LYC. on Frankfurt it would be buying when asx market is closed. Dealing costs for me are about two thirds cheaper on Frankfurt then Australia .

Eadwig 29 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) Ripley94: " fc rate into Australian dollars is nasty " I think they have a Frankfurt listing as well we not buy there ? fx rate to ANY currency, including Euros , is bad at the moment - although we may have to get used to it.

Ripley94 28 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) Hi Eadwig " fc rate into Australian dollars is nasty " I think they have a Frankfurt listing as well we not buy there ?

Ripley94 28 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) My question was about rbw … it is that board

Eadwig 28 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) Ripley94: 2.7p did you buy ? I’m not holding any lyc.ac. They’ve been dropping since the extension was given to their malaysian processing plant but with what appear to be unliked obligations they have to fill, according to what the share price has done anyway. Looks like it has maybe bottomed now, in which case I may have a dabble, although the fc rate into Australian dollars is nasty image.png647x660 21.9 KB I did buy some RBW @3.3p just in case the trade war gets even uglier, which I think there is every chance of. I’m buying purely on the strength of that catalyst, I wouldn’t be bothering with RBW otherwise as all the news recently has been disappointing.

Ripley94 28 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) 16% down early Eadwig ? 2.7p did you buy ?

Eadwig 27 Aug 2019

LYC.AX Lynas Corp (rare earths) image.png937x547 23 KB

Ripley94 02 Aug 2019

Buying RBW… XXXX Been looking to cash in on the two mistakes buys glad they did not lift @ 3.1p. Top gainer today offering 3.5p hung out for 3.6p and got it just after 10am . I will have to make more mistakes seem to do better then when i consider

Ripley94 30 Jul 2019

Buying RBW… XXXX One week on looks like like it is going to work for me now near 3.1p