RichardLY
10 Jul 2017
Re: Worth a punt? No brokers updates since May... on H Lansdown at least. Strangely?Where are you seeing these?ThanksR
Blanketstacker
09 Jul 2017
Worth a punt? There was a disappointing update here on 19 May. Since then there have been four analysts' reports. Together they have an consensus EPS of 12p and a yield at present prices of 4.9%. Two give 'hold', one 'add' and another 'buy'. Artemis have been steadily buying and are now over 13%. The figures look decent enough
ER = 8Price to book = 1.22Div cover = x2.4Gearing = -5.5The update really marked a shift from rapid to steady growth, and the roll out of bars in city centres continues. This seems to me to have potential growth of 20% in the price, perhaps a little more.
Blanketstacker
15 Jun 2017
Re: Signs of a rally? There is possibly value here. The last update in May was a disappointment, and the highlighting of increased costs led some to see the management as previously being disingenuous. However in reality what we are seeing is just a shift from RBG being a rapid growth company to becoming a steady growth company. The figures are as followsER = 8.5Forecast EPS = 12.6pGearing = -5%Yield 4.2% (covered x2.4)Price to book = 1.3PEG = -0.97The roll out continues, primarily in low cost, town centre premises. Free cash flow remains strong. Bars come and go, so this may not be the company into which to dump the kids' college fund, but in the short to medium term RBG seems currently undervalued.
Disorder
26 May 2017
Signs of a rally? I think majority of folk consider the stock to represent good value at this point.Certainly all the bad news appears to be out and one would have thought so based on wanting to start with a clean sheet.The closing prices suggest to me a rally could ensue.There was certainly some demand for stock coming in.
JohnyCash
26 May 2017
O/T RTN Sold my balance of Restaurant Group just now following sales update and rise in SP this morning. Their menu remains expensive in comparison to their competitors and I still think they need to consolidate the choices.JC
JohnyCash
25 May 2017
Re: Top-Up "I have big holdings in Young & Co, Shepherd Neame, Fullers, Daniel Thwaites,Marstons & I must admit I didn't see the possible problems"............Hi TX2.........In which case, this is for you >>[link] me know how you get on ............JC
TX2
25 May 2017
Re: Top-Up I have great respect for Paul Scott whose comments you quote above & I have learnt a great deal from him regarding looking at potential investments.It is very easy to be wise after the event & put forward reasons which may or way not be correct for possible problems!I was & remain interested in Revolution as I have by my standards some quite big holdings in the pub/restaurant sector including Young & Co,Shepherd Neame,Fullers,Daniel Thwaites,Marstons & I must admit I did n't see the possible problems until after profits warning and began to think about the situation! It is correct that Revolution on the face of it has a good balance sheet with no book debt.It does however have around 60 long term property leases;if a significant number of outlets are not performing this could present a considerable problem as it cannot easily close them.Hopefully it may be quite simply be a case that it takes more time to build up trade from a standing start with new outlets than expected which is a perfectly plausible explanation.....
JohnyCash
24 May 2017
Re: Top-Up This is purely a speculative punt for me as I see it as currently oversold. I'm prepared to let it run for a while. I did dip my toe into the water with Restaurant Group but bailed out when the going got tough. I did take a haircut but have since more than recovered it on Purp.Interesting that Paul Scott thought the SP was a bargain at circa 210p and remained bullish at 139p post the profit warning. His comments as follows (fwiw) >>"Valuation - last year's results showed £15.6m adjusted EBITDA. So it sounds as if we're looking at ballpark £15.0m for this year. That's a very cash generative business, with a market cap of only £70m.Plus remember there's no net debt here, it has a terrific balance sheet.Overall then, disappointing, but at the current valuation, I think this share could end up looking very cheap indeed, once management has got the cost base under better control That looks an absolute bargain to me"JC
TX2
24 May 2017
Re: Top-Up Whilst I hope for the best for shareholders I have my doubts about the profitability of this type of business.Unlike with pub groups,which touch wood still seem to doing OK I feel there is a lack of flexibility in this type of outlet.You have no family trade,little in the way of daily lunch time offer,Sunday lunches etc to keep the tills busy during opening hours.You have large mainly rented premises which often seem to be filled Friday & Saturday nights,rest of the time you are running mostly empty racking up overheads.You are appealing to a very narrow & perhaps fickle consumer base in a competitive market,you may have to continue to update your offer to retain interest.Most of the assets here seem to be "fixtures & fittings";if you are under depreciating these to take account of the continual need to refresh your outlets you may find you are not actually making any money.
JohnyCash
24 May 2017
Top-Up At 111.93pCheap as chips........JC
long term hold
22 May 2017
Re: Board revolution needed The generated over 14 million pounds in cashflow from operations last year, spent only 13 million on investment and less than 2 on the dividend. They have zero net debt and no pension deficit. They could comfortably take on 20 million or more in debt, buy back shares and continue with their programme. I think they should. The current share price is pricing in more than a worse case scenario.
Muzzletoff
22 May 2017
Re: Board revolution needed I don't think the free cash position will cope with fitting out new bars and dividends and buy backs.Would probably agree it would be nice to see the CEO buying, though I suspect that will only occur if and when a full time FD is appointed.
long term hold
21 May 2017
Re: Board revolution needed If this share price move really is an 'over reaction' as the CEO has suggested, then I would expect him to be buying shares aggressively himself and I would suggest that the company divert some of the cash earmarked for the roll-out to buying back shares in order to maximise shareholder value. Let's see.
JohnyCash
19 May 2017
Re: Board revolution needed Newly hired board members will always kitchen sink bad news/issues both on the existing business and company forecasts. In that manner they can look really good and take the praise when things improve from a 'worst case scenario'I've been tracking this stock for many weeks and have been following the Paul Scott reviews with a view to an entry point. Sooo glad I didn't get in earlier, but in today at 127p.Interesting that there was some softening of the SP just before the announcement - one can't help thinking there might have been a leak.JC
Lavenonews
19 May 2017
Re: Board revolution needed Yep, I think what is clear is that there are serious deficiencies in financial forecasting, the cost pressures in the sector were clear months ago but management here have been caught napping. Interesting that Chairman Edelman excludes Goals from his CV on the Revolution website, probably hoping no one noticed or remembers the misguided decisions on capital expansion that happened there.
