Mr Hacked off
23 Jan 2018
Re: Mid 50's to low 60's? Could be because Nestle look to be in pole position to take Mercks Pharma unit.With that out of the way R&B can get back to integrating baby milk.
gamesinvestor
23 Jan 2018
Re: Mid 50's to low 60's? ""I'm likely to exit at 685X (it seems to want to cycle up and down to that level at the moment) and then sit and wait.""Well due to fortunate lethargy I obviously sat and waited without selling and the stocks now hitting 7000 -- is there something afoot here perhaps?Games
valuemanbuyer
11 Jan 2018
Re: Musings ...... AmazonImterestingly most people assume Amazon isntrsdimg on a crazy high multiple . The reality is that their R&D expenses are 9-10% of revenues . If you adjust for those expenses which are used for sup/ normal growth you will findThat Amazon has been making 9-10% margins for years. That’s the worry for everyone who has to compete !
gamesinvestor
11 Jan 2018
Re: Mid 50's to low 60's? Bill -- I agree -- I'm likely to exit at 685X (it seems to want to cycle up and down to that level at the moment) and then sit and wait.There's not a lot of money to made here in the short to medium term (wild guess of course) but it doesn't look or smell like a bargain, it also still carries the litigation risk in Korea and the debt load with Mead Johnson, even after the food sale isn't insignificant.I'm not sure RB is a bid target either -- although anything could come out of the blue, and I see sterling strengthening from here.Quite a few headwinds it seems is eminently possible.Games
Bill1703
11 Jan 2018
Re: Mid 50's to low 60's? A not unreasonable article, games - thanks.Interesting that it points to fair value of £62-66, on his methodology. I am prepared to be a tad more generous, as previously outlined.That said, you cannot forget that these have been distinctly favourable conditions, in terms of investor sentiment and favour, for such globally diversified, "stable growth" consumer blue-chips, and it will not always be so - anyone investing for the long term must be prepared to look through such cycles of sentiment, rather than hope to dip in and out successfully.All in all, I would need to see it back down to something at least near the bottom of this range (ie. £62-66) to get on board in any reasonable size.
gamesinvestor
11 Jan 2018
Mid 50's to low 60's? seems to be the conclusion from this simple analysis :-[link] believe if the shift in strategy can be implemented successfully then going forward they can return to strong revenue growth. Despite the longer term potential I believe there will be better entry points in the low £60's to mid £50's."""""Games
gamesinvestor
11 Jan 2018
Speaking of earning's yield.... I read Greenblatt's book over Christmas - bah humbug he spouts - what right does Christmas have to pick a man's pocket there Bob me old China !!Anyhow the little margic formula is replicated in a portfolio for 2018 put together by Phil Oakley and it's worth having a gander at if you have time :-[link] that in the Simple Magic Formula list first descibed for 2018 I happen to have 4 of the 20 (not too many then).These 4 are NEXT; IMB; WPP and ITV - the rest, rightly or wrongly, I can't get excited about.Games
gamesinvestor
11 Jan 2018
Re: Musings ...... "No, still to take the plunge"Yep - probably a good move - the earnings yield is poor on this one.I'm just at break even at the moment having bought in September and October last year.If it rears it's head above 6850 I'm tempted to offload and wait for a long time.Games
Bill1703
11 Jan 2018
Re: Musings ...... "... I'll probably never be a holder of Amazon. Whether this is because I don't understand the reality of Amazon's significance is another story, but I'll be missing what ever future party it enjoys."Me too, Games, me too... ultimately I need to be able to "see" 20x P/E, even if it's some way off. History tells us why. And I simply can't with Amazon - they are the ultimate disrupter who themselves will continually face disruption from elsewhere. They have created the environment which will dictate their own longer term fate."Are you still holding, or not, RB?"No, still to take the plunge - maybe I will get the opportunity, maybe not. But £68 is probably 'fair value' for me - more or less - so I don't see the value opportunity. I do see the ongoing growth opportunity, but this will likely be steady rather than stellar - they're not going to get another big windfall from GBP collapsing again IMHO, indeed, this is more likely to go the other way.And I fear the picture that could emerge on the MJ deal shortly, one year on...
gamesinvestor
11 Jan 2018
Re: Musings ...... "" but it will one day. Emperor's new clothes? I have no idea when it will be, or how much higher up, but you don't want to be holding Amazon stock when that particular emperor's nakedness is finally conceded....""Bill, On a P/E of 149 - I'll probably never be a holder of Amazon. Whether this is because I don't understand the reality of Amazon's significance is another story, but I'll be missing what ever future party it enjoys.Are you still holding, or not, RB?Games - Bond yields are still rising !!
gamesinvestor
27 Dec 2017
Re: Musings ...... "But interesting you didn't include Facebook in your list... the most likely of all the current internet giants to come crashing down to earth IMHO (albeit my opinion here is humble indeed, for good reason....)"Bill - It is interesting, in that it's born out of my lack of interest and perhaps belief in social media - it tends to drown out thought, so I use it sparingly.Facebook - Instagram - Snapchat - bla bla I like PayPal because it grows very profitably (as does Facebook some would argue) and yet 85% of the world still uses cash -- I think 95% of the world is already on facebook (and it's free).Microsoft -- probably grossly misunderstood by many as an ageing dinosaur that is past it's sell by date -- I love Dinosaurs, it's eaten it's way from my $10 entry to now $86 and my third largest holding on a monster yield from my entry point.Games
sage in the hills
22 Dec 2017
Re: Downtrend ....Absolutely agree H2 Econ, my chart lines concur.....( proof of the Christmas pudding ...etc ...)bottomed, and established fresh fledgling uptrendSAGE
Hydrogen Economy
22 Dec 2017
Downtrend After some strong moves up by RB, looks like downtrend could be broken?
Hydrogen Economy
15 Dec 2017
RB bid Merck Consumer health unit? Bloomberg TV reporting RB to be among the companies working on a bid for the Merck consumer health unit. Not a huge surprise as RB buying this unit has been subject of speculation for some years. Price was estimated at $4bn, it has 60% revenues in emerging market which makes it of interest to RB. 4B is not massive in RB terms, but not sure they need to be taking the eye off the MJ integration and fixing some of the other issues of last few months.Merck consumer healthcare business, which offers vitamins brands such as Seven Seas alongside nasal decongestants. Merck kicked off the disposal process in Oct, inviting interested parties to view confidential data room.Pfizer Consumer health also in playIn Oct FT said In December 2015, Rakesh Kapoor, chief executive of Reckitt, said he would be “very interested” in Pfizer’s consumer unit if it came up for sale. However, Reckitt has since paid $16.7bn for Mead Johnson, the baby formula maker, and analysts have questioned whether it can afford a second big deal.H2
gamesinvestor
27 Nov 2017
Re: China cuts tarriffs on baby formula impo... maybe the timing of the Mead Johnson acquisition was just right?The cuts in the Chinese imports are quite large and should allow Mead and Nestle and P&G to gain a much larger market share in China.Games
