sage in the hills
17 Nov 2017
Re: Musings ...... Because the sp has dropped 20% approx.This must be all the bad news / difficulty out there now ?The MJ project has been debated / put in place etc ?Life goes on ? .....people buy products ?(.....to be honest i am a bit fed up with this RB. low sp , thats all Bill )SAGE
sage in the hills
17 Nov 2017
Re: New members to BoDs...... This relates to the well- voiced announcement of 4 Board Directors resigning in approx August/ Sept.Replacements were to be in place between then and DecemberSAGE
Bill1703
17 Nov 2017
Re: Musings ...... "....this has surely got to be 'turn-around time' for RB. ....hasnt it ? ......."SITH - simple question is response....Why?
Bill1703
17 Nov 2017
Re: New members to BoDs...... "... presumably , they will all, or most that are in position anyway, now be up to speed with RB.."SITH - which new members are these? I haven't seen any recent announcement.
sage in the hills
17 Nov 2017
Musings ...... ....this has surely got to be 'turn-around time' for RB. ....hasnt it ? .......SAGE
sage in the hills
17 Nov 2017
New members to BoDs...... .....presumably , they will all, or most that are in position anyway, now be up to speed with RB. structures, systems, dynamics, and numbers .....to be effective in adding value ?? ....SAGE
sage in the hills
14 Nov 2017
Charts.... .... for what they are worth .....I guess i am expecting to see hovering around 6400p for approx 3 weeks .....SAGE
sage in the hills
13 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? Finally through £6... we are 20 % off the high now ......SAGE
Bill1703
13 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? Finally through £65 Having threatened to break though £65 on the downside a few times now, but managing to bounce back each time, looks like the resistance is broken - and possibly decisively?I am not sure what a chartist would make of it - nothing positive I would imagine? But just as likely, IMHO, to be a buying opportunity as anything more negative - though there does seem to be a distinct lack of buying interest here, particularly as other global consumer peers (eg. DGE, ULVR) are continuing to hold up pretty well.
sage in the hills
10 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? ...... pointers ? Thank you Bill for your full and graphic answer; a great read....(and useful debate generated too.....but it was a simple question needing your full answer. Thanks.)SAGE
Bill1703
09 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? ...... pointers ? "Actually the rot had firmly set in before H1. The MJ FY 2016 results showed a yoy volume decline of -6%, revenue -7% reported -3% constamt Fx. I read that Q3 result of +1% LFL as encouraging given the previous history..."HE - yes, I did acknowledge this in an earlier post... but the collapse in margins, and hence profits, in H1 was a big incremental "surprise" - margins were holding up well as of FY16.And I also agree on the better Q3 performance for MJ... but this was only a revenue data point, there was no update on margins/profits - for that we will have to wait, as you say. "... you seem to be suggesting that RB don’t improve MJ... RB are a world class Business who have the highest margins in their sector globally. They are experts at improving brands while increasing margins... I think, with their excellent record , they they should be given time to prove their strategy is right..."VMB - I don't really disagree with any of what you say, nor was there anything in my post fundamentally at odds with this - I was merely addressing the question of why does RB face the charge of seriously overpaying for MJ, as things stand today. And it is not (just) my charge, it is the one reflected in a SP of £65-66 rather than the £81 only recently reached.Nor is there any suggestion that RB are in any way to blame for the deterioration in MJ performance... I actually agree with you, I think RB will be able to deliver progressively better performance from MJ - which should be good for the SP, given the reset of expectations implicit in the current price. But the precise timing and quantum of this is less certain, and in the meantime, I think the charge will remain.
Hydrogen Economy
09 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? ...... pointers ? Bill"Maybe MJ's recent woes are really down to management lassitude - and I get that the H1 slump could partly reflect an eye taken off the ball with the takeover underway. In which case, RB should be able to sharpen it up reasonably quickly and deliver a steady stream of good news from here. But maybe not... maybe the higher raw material costs will not quickly reverse, maybe the end markets will indeed remain tougher, and the competition fiercer?"Actually the rot had firmly set in before H1. The MJ FY 2016 results showed a yoy volume decline of -6%, revenue -7% reported -3% constamt Fx. I read that Q3 result of +1% LFL as encouraging given the previous history, Of course Fx and other factors may be flattering the results, but noting that the RB Base business was -1% LFL Q3 it does suggest some strength in MJ. All will become clear in fullness of time.H2
valuemanbuyer
08 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? ...... pointers ? A bit of balance is needed methinks.You seem to be suggesting that RB don’t improve MJ. I think that’s fundamentally wrong. RB are a world class Business who have the highest margins in their sector globally. They are experts at improving brands while increasing margins or current and acquired assets.It gets them into Markets they are under-represented in . I think , with their excellent record , they they should be given time to prove their strategy is right. After all one of the worlds most successful families ( the Reimanns) continue to hold s v large stake ( albeit reduced - probably due to capital requirements for their other businesses).
Bill1703
08 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? ...... pointers ? "....so Bill, why did they seriously overpay ? ...."SITH - it remains a charge at this stage, rather than a guilty verdict and conviction. And they may well eventually be cleared and vindicated - but they're very much in the dock, as of now.Why? Because they paid a big premium for a business already struggling, revenues and profits stalling, and the SP underperforming... so often portents of worse to come. And so it was, with H1 figures revealing sales stuttering further, and a massive drop of margins and profits.Maybe RB was just unlucky... or maybe they saw it coming, and judged the weak MJ SP as the perfect opportunity to take it on board for the longer term growth story. But I don't really buy this... it's hard not to conclude that if MJ were still an independent quoted business, the H1 profits debacle would have seen its SP slump much further - and so it is inescapable, had they waited 6 months RB would have been able to pay the same big premium but still secure the acquisition at a significantly lower price.Thus far, RB have shrugged it off - they say there is no change to their medium/longer term sales and margin projections for the business. And doubtless there will be big savings and synergies to realise, very possibly bigger than their published targets to date. Maybe MJ's recent woes are really down to management lassitude - and I get that the H1 slump could partly reflect an eye taken off the ball with the takeover underway. In which case, RB should be able to sharpen it up reasonably quickly and deliver a steady stream of good news from here. But maybe not... maybe the higher raw material costs will not quickly reverse, maybe the end markets will indeed remain tougher, and the competition fiercer?Either way, there's no denying that RB now have to work pretty hard just to get the MJ biz back to where it was when they effectively bought it (rather than actually completed the transaction). And maybe this will take time - we know that MJ sales performance was somewhat better in Q3, but as for margins and profits, we'll have to wait for the FY next year.As I said before, none of this might be bad news for the RB SP - from here. If indeed it has already rebased to reflect the downturn in MJ... incremental good news from here should be easier to deliver, incremental upside in the SP (from £65-66) easier to realise. But for now, the "seriously overpaid" charge remains, and that can weigh on management credibility for a long time, even after signs of improved performance... and can often prove fatal. And that is before they announce ANOTHER $17bn deal (for the Pfizer business) - if indeed that is what lies in store?
sage in the hills
07 Nov 2017
Re: Direction ? ...... pointers ? "and with mounting weight behind the charge that they seriously overpaid for MJ."....so Bill, why did they seriously overpay ? ....SAGE
