Ripley94
29 Jan 2020
Share prophets like it on market coronavirus sell off drop PZC… XXXX Why value investors should buy PZ Cussons and not Crest Nicholson BY CHRIS BAILEY It is always striking to me that even experienced investors feel the burn when the market goes down a little bit more than on any day in the last four or six months. I know that pension values, spread bet positions, public tipster perception and much more rest on the fluctuations of the world’s financial markets, but the real money is being a thoughtful weighing machine investor and not a finger-on-the-trigger voting machine one. Well that is my perception at least and why I included this wonderful quote from James Lovelock (‘An inefficient virus kills its host. A clever virus stays with it’) in some musings I had to send over the other side of the Pond. In short, if you are worried about the coronavirus, then you should be petrified about the alternative financial disease that packages itself up as personal, corporate or government debt burdens. Talking about debt…
Gamesinvestor1
23 Dec 2019
So Far So Good Well somebody things it is or was undervalued, because it is up 8.75% at close. Kerrchuuung!! Games - OK I’m now getting carried away – well it is Christmas and I’ve been to the pub.
Gamesinvestor1
23 Dec 2019
So Far So Good Opened up 5.26% 196 Not bad ai in a down market – maybe it should have been 2% of my wad. Games – OK don’t get carried away now!
Gamesinvestor1
22 Dec 2019
3rd Tranche Bill you might be right on PZC, I’ve been in and out of this twice. First time selling out at 3xx and quite profitable. Sold because of Nigeria. Then a second time with a low 2xx exit and 10% modest profit. I feel this is now oversold after the acknowledgement of the mistakes and the actions already taken to return to sensible allocation. Sure the old CEO whilst well respected, didn’t cover himself with glory. However, the brands that matter are pretty solid and the new burst products are flying off the shelves as is St Tropez. I’m quietly confident this is at a reasonable value for a good 2-3 year hold at this yield. I could well eat my words Bill, but I don’t think so. Ok back to my pasta dish and a nice glass of Rioja. Games - Merry Christmas guys.
NewBill1703
22 Dec 2019
3rd Tranche NewBill1703: I am not entirely sure what rating I’d put on this one - and even then, my fear would be the “E†will continue to disappoint faster than the “P/Eâ€. Could be heading towards 150p rather than back above 200p? I should add - rating looks more like just over 15x current year consensus earnings, with only modest pick-up in earnings pencilled in for the following year. A new CEO may be able to reinvigorate the business - but they have to find one first, and in the meantime the risks to earnings must be weighted to the downside. The quality of a few of the brands notwithstanding, not sure I’d be paying more than 12x for this - and a forecast divi yield of c.4.4% is no better than the UK market average.
NewBill1703
22 Dec 2019
3rd Tranche paddingtonbear: Board and assume new CEO when appointed intend to focus on fewer things and do them better. Good start selling one Greek brand for £41million, more to come. New debt target of 2 x EBITDA. P/E 13. They are aware and dealing with online selling, plastic packaging and sustainable palm oil. 2020 will be a transition year, hope to see solid progress towards profitable expansion thereafter. I agree that Nick T getting involved is worthy of comment - but I fear he may be barking up the wrong tree here (or at least, too early). The long-standing CEO fired, the CFO walking out in a state of disillusionment… it badly needs an activist approach to restructure the business, yet the dominant family holding probably cushions against this, which third-party shareholders will probably come to regret. Problem in Nigeria are deep-set, they have a long tail of mediocre brands and only a few decent ones, and even those have the distinct whiff of yesterday about them. I agree it is no longer that expensive, but hardly cheap - in a market still abounding with “cheap†stocks. They need to streamline the business, but that’ll likely be a multi-year and painful process - selling mediocre brands will likely attract at best mediocre prices and will probably be dilutive to earnings, selling the top brands could realise decent prices, but would leave them with no business, or at least an even more ramshackle, mediocre one. I am not entirely sure what rating I’d put on this one - and even then, my fear would be the “E†will continue to disappoint faster than the “P/Eâ€. Could be heading towards 150p rather than back above 200p?
paddingtonbear
22 Dec 2019
3rd Tranche In greater depth…ten year low, CFO and CEO going within a few months of each other. Profits and turnover plateaued and now dropping but importantly still exist in sufficient quantities to pay flat and covered dividend, which Board hope to keep. Founded 1879 so have survived many setbacks. Debt easing down from 2016 peak. Conceivable comfy existence now being disturbed by setbacks in major African market of Nigeria and general lack of forward progress. (Too) Diverse set of brands, markets and activities which span home care, electrical, food/nutrition and also beauty plus personal care. Combinations sold in 25 countries. Board and assume new CEO when appointed intend to focus on fewer things and do them better. Good start selling one Greek brand for £41million, more to come. New debt target of 2 x EBITDA. P/E 13. They are aware and dealing with online selling, plastic packaging and sustainable palm oil. 2020 will be a transition year, hope to see solid progress towards profitable expansion thereafter. Thank you Games, I intend to dip in a paw soon. PB.
paddingtonbear
22 Dec 2019
3rd Tranche Hi Games, your sleuthing skills seem on a roll at the moment! Another one to check out, off to great start with a Nick Train approval and a five year low. Usual dumping of CEO, although remarkably polite Board comments. All of Sunday to investigate …Last individual share I bought was Sainsbury, nudged up 10% + a divi so far but not one you liked and early days yet. Instead of Stobart I bought some Enquest Oil 2022 bond paying 8% on (bizarre?) logic lot of debt dropping away , assets building and at over $55 barrel the company increasingly likely to survive. PB.
Gamesinvestor1
20 Dec 2019
3rd Tranche Bought third tranche of this today to take it close to 1% of my wad. Interesting that Nick Train has made this his only UK investment in the last 9 years. [link] Games
NewBill1703
16 Jun 2019
Oohps the FD out the door Gamesinvestor1: Perhaps he’s been caught with his hand in the till? I suspect not, here - merely a guy who has been there a long time and been worn down by the pressure of challenges to the business largely out of their hands. I suspect things get worse before they get better here, notwithstanding the value story that is threatening to emerge.
Gamesinvestor1
13 Jun 2019
Oohps the FD out the door Sudden and immediate departure. Perhaps he’s been caught with his hand in the till? [link] It’s also this kind of gobbledygook that makes one suspicious of management ““The expected outturn for the year reflects a resilient performanceâ€â€ Games
Gamesinvestor1
13 Jun 2019
Difficult one to fathom this one given the continued decline of Nigeria. Sold out again at 202 at the end of May and the negativity today has hit the stock again, although the numbers seem pretty much as expected. Not much information in this message other than inline and debt reduced. [link] Games
Gamesinvestor1
08 Feb 2019
Doubled up Yesterday on the dip. Despite it’s many struggles, this company is worth a bit more than 170-190 methinks. Games - Sock drawer for now!
newtonukequities
02 Feb 2019
Massive sell off I’ve taken a look at the company and uploaded a short video on youtube. Good luck
Gamesinvestor1
01 Feb 2019
Massive sell off So far so good, seems to be creeping up from 176 to 185.6 in less than a week. Games
