atlanticshore
20 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation Any view on Avalon Jim....
nigerian delight
20 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation Jimmy,Amen to that!
jimmy24
20 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation At last Pvr have got the message out that the drilling on Barry roe in 2019 is to gain the detailed information necessary to optimally place the production wells.As I have said for over five years the key to Barry roe is to be able to map the reservoir directly on seismic so that small intra reservoir faults can be identified in advance so that production wells can be optimally placed to drain the field.The new seismic last year is a complete game changer to do this . With six wells drilled to date on Barry roe that gives a strong data points to validate the seismic interpretation. With another six well ( 3 wells and three sidetracks) this will give a total of 12 well data points to be able to confidently place the production wells . On this basis PVR is massively undervalued and should be many multiples of to days price.So we have 340 million bbl of certified 2c resources undeveloped and pvr have 40% after the farm out , should be worth at least $5 per bbl to pvr based on an oil price of $ 70 per bbl.What I find very interesting is the potential of the Jurassic below Barry roe which may also be drilled as part of the 2019 drilling program, now I am not aware of any published prospective resources for the Jurassic but based on the field illustration map it appears to be a four way dip anticline with source rock directly below which has also sourced the barryroe field above. So the question arises what are the reservoir thickness and flow rates in the Jurassic . Actually elsewhere in the Celtic sea flow rates in the Jurassic have ranged 2500 to 10,000 bels per day. Now this is exploration but and you have to drill to confirm it but it seems reasonable to me that we could be looking at least at a doubling of reserves from 340 to 680 million bbl. it’s definitely worth a look at very little extra cost.I expect the Jurassic to be a thicker reservoir that can be mapped directly on the seismic and a higher quality reservoir with very much higher flow rate potential. Now the source rock is the same so it’s highly likely to be high wax content oil but the last well on Barry roe proved that this can be dealt with with vacuumed tube technology.The new seismic technology that handles the removal of seismic multiples is key to all this as the reservoirs can be mapped directly on seismic and small faults identified with confidence. This technology can now be applied to the rest of the Celtic sea and fields like Hellvick and dunmore can now be re examined with this technology and potentially made commercial. The farm out to the Chinese has validated the new technology . The Irish magazine The Phoenix has the first decent review of Barry roe and the farm out, can be read over on the Lse website.Low hanging investment fruit here at pvr after all these years.JimmyThe extra information in the presentation
nigerian delight
19 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation Charlie, I know it was a long evening but do you remember what TOR said about developing Helvick/Dunmore?
LondonCharlie1
19 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation The other thing I forgot to mention was that the LOGP CEO was there too - there seemed to be a very good relationship between the two, which was reassuring given I'm a LOGP holder too
LondonCharlie1
19 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation I don't recall, although he started talking about Dunquin after Barryroe and indicated they'd be looking for a farm out (cryptically mentioning with one of the partners listed in the box on the presentation). that stage I started to zone out a bit though, having had to listen to three boring presentations beforehand lol
atlanticshore
19 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation Well done Charlie ... all sounds good ....No mention of Total etc ...?
nigerian delight
19 Apr 2018
Re: This evening's presentation Charlie, Many thanks. Good to hear confirm PVR not a production company so either company or Barryroe stake will be sold once Barryroe proven up in 2019.
LondonCharlie1
19 Apr 2018
This evening's presentation HiI attended the presentation this evening. My main focus was Barryroe, here are some notes based on TOR's talk:- Barryroe described as low risk appraisal programme with a focus on deeper exploration- Admission by TOR that there had been a lot of criticism for not having farmed out earlier- On farm out, APEC described as a significant operational and financial partner with the capacity to move Barryroe from appraisal through to production. JIC Capital Management has AUM of $160bn (finance capability) and China Oilfield Services will provide ops capability - TOR noted that no-one is paying cash upfront nowadays, but there is no risk to PVR/LOGP or upfront drilling costs payable. I think TOR said in any case he'd prefer the cash to be put to the wells - Negotiation took 5 months both here and in Beijing (generally I got the impression they were tough). - Farm out deal IS signed, but is subject to closing conditions (Gov approval and ancillary docs). Both an Irish and Chinese Govt approval required, Chinese takes longer hence the Q3 leeway- In terms of the non-recourse loan, TOR was surprised there was any confusion on this as RNS was clear. It is secured against Barryroe production cashflow ONLY (point reiterated - cashflow subject to a waterfall). The finance covers planning, consents, drills, testing and side track.- Warrants can only be exercised once full drilling program has been completed. Likewise APEC can only take operatorship once the programme is finished.- 6 new take points in drilling program. Will give a 'huge amount' of new data towards first oil. TOR stated when they start drilling they will be drilling for a long time in Barryroe- APEC's investment $100m to $120m - at current oil price will be repaid by 1.5m net barrels. Operation cost reconfirmed in $25/30 range, so significant upside at current price- When asked about production TOR was honest, years away - its all about turning 2C to 2P reserves and getting the valuation uplift. Elsewhere I think TOR made clear that PVR not a production company- Asked about placings in forseeable future- no current plans, accounts should reveal a healthy cash position.I hope my notes of the above were accurate, if anyone else present has additional comment then please share.Thanks!
nigerian delight
19 Apr 2018
Re: Proactive presentation Mamms, Plenty of interest in Newgrange.Jimmy, What do you think of drill objectives for Barryroe?
Mamms
19 Apr 2018
Proactive presentation Is online. I may be missing it but I don't see anything earth shattering in it. They suggest Newgrange might also be drilled next year which suggests a deal must be close (hopefully on better terms than the BROE deal) and it suggests that 2021 is when Avalon might happen...
atlanticshore
19 Apr 2018
Re: Trade everything is a sign for those who need to find ....!
Hypnotoad1
19 Apr 2018
Share Price It seems that the whole O&G industry is being overlooked by the market. Falcon, for example, had extremely good news this week but it went largely overlooked. I think the market still believes that the world is awash with cheap oil and everyone is driving an electric car. One good geopolitical upset, however, will change all of that. In the meantime, it is just to sit tight and wait.
padre2000
19 Apr 2018
Hopefully small trades are start of fomo
Rawmaterials are king
19 Apr 2018
Trade strange small trades today - a sign...?
