Eadwig
20 Sep 2017
Re: Wow! (NB. Shorts) 30,50,20,I haven't done such an analysis because its entirely dependent on the 'disruptive' nature of the business. I really can't see any barrier to existing agents doing exactly the same thing, and possibly doing it better. The only protection PURP has is buying out any opposition as it becomes competition. Meanwhile, I've been amazed to see well known bricks and mortar brands reporting downturns, only for it to become evident tht a good prt of the downturn was them actully losing market share to PURP.Its also worth taking note that PURP have blossomed over the last 2 years AFTER the peak of the current UK housing cycle (according to how you read it, but general feeling it was Summer 2015) AND at a time when the stock in the second hand market is at about 50% of 'normal' levels.It is entirely possible that the UK housing market is about to shift from one of the highest home ownerships in the developed world to one much more leaning towards rents and leases. Last figures I saw, ownership was already down from a peak of close to 70% into the high 50%s.So, such a backdrop going on, i find it impossible to come up with anything meaningful for PURP, especially as most figures are heavily weighted towards the UK. Ask me gain in 8-11 yers when I can be certain where was are in the housing cycle.Unfortunately, by then, if PURP are still going well, they'll be so global, no housing cycle patterns form any country is going to help you analyse how well they've done because each market is different (hence the importance of getting locals on board).These are some of the reasons why I've underlined the speculative nature of any punt. A lot depends on management going forward. I think they're good. If they stay in the back office, planning growth.They need to fine a spokesperson to get on the board and who will be out front answering questions about the company. The current management aren't so great at that as we have seen in recent times. Poor performance there so far. Its all part of the package once you are public, especially a high profile sales company - they need a high profile, high competence sales-person up front as a single point for media contact.In my opinion. EadwigEadwig.
thirty fifty twenty
20 Sep 2017
Re: SELL 384p:links to websites / legal ... hi KiamaI agree that it is a big of an assumption re marketing costs but in presentations before they were challenged why they did not need to increases spend as it is budgetted to be the same year on year. their response was that the trustpilot score was getting stronger and their word of mouth reputation was gathering momentum and thus only needed marketing to 'top up' the brand.no one bad customer experience takes a lot to counterand since those presenations there has been the BBC watchdog programme, and allagents where PURP have gone very heavy on legal action. so either they are very sensitive to 71 reviews.... why care about 71 reviews which they choose not to reply to when you have 26,000 5* reviews. That to me seems overly sensitive and a waste of money , time and effort.So what is allagents has your average rating at 1.2 - you know it to be fake and you have 26,000 5* reviews. why not persurade your customers to put some positive reviews on allagents , and why not respond saying you believe these are untrue? It seems an egotistical rather than a business response to me.if they care about the rating on allagents it must mean that they are worried about people seeing allagents when they do a google search..this means their only advertising is not being as effective as they would like. i.e. despite the advertising customers are still googling for 'online agents' rather than going straight to PURP.anyway, my guess from the characters involved and the facts are that they will chose to spend a bit more on advertising..... i'm not talking much but going from 14m to 18m is a difference in the profit forecasts for the city. it is immaterial to those that believe PURP is going to get 16% market share of the UK market but it is fuel to stop the momentum trend .....my trade is not per se based on a business slowdown at PURP - just that the mega rating (25times sales) being applied to PURP will reduce. all IMHO, DYOR + BoL
thirty fifty twenty
20 Sep 2017
Re: Wow! (NB. Shorts) good post and thanks for the information.can I ask as a holder what do you see the profit growth to be over the coming years - I do like specifics! broken down by UK, OZ, USAwhen I assessed PURP first of all at 1.3bn valuation I modelled that the market was attributing as followsUK 500mOz 300mUS 500m(would love to her other views as long as it reconciles to correct total)re UK - I modelled that they might make 60m operating profit in 5 years time so that 500m is reasonable value todayre Oz - yes they should be able to replicate UK but there are risksre US - all the bull arguments except that PURP have no real protection against competition but that they have 'first mover advantage'. to me this logic does not stack up in the US whne they have only just started and everyone knows their business model. They have trained 25 LPE in the US with 10 days of training - that's not too hard to copy!!! I also didn't agree with the market that if you can spend 50m setting up a business - it could be valued at 500m a few months later. Again if that's possible it will bring in more players with a similar biz model - there already are similar in the US.So it seems to be as if the market was extrapolating and not allowing for any bumps in straight line, and very rapid, corporate growth over 3 continents, never mind the broader economic risks outside their control.The valuation however was being helped by a huge momentum trade following evident in countless stocks in the UKAt this point I opened a small short.Since then many factors I feel have developed in my favour.....1 - UK housing market slowed2 - BBC watchdog programme3 - Tom Winniforth is on the warpath (you may not like him but he gets listened to and was right about many over valuations in the recent past)4 - allagents ban on PURP b/c of heavy handed legal actions shows that PURP are not as clear and transparent as they tout.5 - endless momentum stocks have started to fall for the first time in 18 months - average price fall of the 15-20 I monitor is c.25%6 - most significantly the chart formations are now very clearly a head and shoulders top, as well as a negative golden cross which implies a fall to c.300pAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLPURP is in my top5 hldgs (short)
Eadwig
20 Sep 2017
Wow! (NB. Shorts) Just looked at Santa Monica, a very small enclave of LA, and not the most expensive by any means, although certainly above average. Not strictly speaking a part of LA, actually, but a city in its own right. There are lots of them that make up what we generally refer to as Los Angeles, all of which I assume PURP are covering with this launch. A market of 20 million plus. (I'll check parameters of how far out into 'the valley' they've got when I get time).Over 200 properties listed in Santa Monica, 100 or so listed for 1 month or less (30 days is the average turnover time in CA), average price, I would guestimate around $2.5 million. I wouldn't want to be paying an agent 5% of that.The site had some speed issues when I checked yesterday, but it was early morning LA time and I think it was being updated because there are dozens of additional properties added today and no speed issues at the moment . It is middle of the night there, of course.It could be easier to search (I never really looked at the Purplebricks interface before), but on the other hand I can't remember my old zip code except it started with 91 - and that would make it much more simple in USA for searches.No feedback on any sales or anything specific to USA so far (its only been officially opened a few days), but they've hit the ground running AND are already attracting new listings.Early days, but with the share price @380p, and the Fed possibly going to reverse recent USD weakness later today, you'd be really daft to short this or not have a speculative punt if you're into that sort of thing.I say the above about shorts because someone mentioned below that they are doing so. I don't have any problem with shorting at all, to be clear, but do watch yourself for this reason: I know LA very well and its a strange city (strange choice for PURP to launch in too, I think). Not at all typical, and very, very faddish. PURP could make a very modest impact or fall flat on its face - but it could equally well become THE NEXT BIG THING - of which there are about one every other week in LA.If it catches the imagination on local news etc, it'll take off like a mad thing and the hype will be beyond anything you've ever seen. For about a week or two, then it'll be onto the next, next big thing.If PURP are lucky enough to catch such a wave, it'll establish them in USA in no time at all. You just can't buy that sort of publicity but you can create it if you're very clever, even in the most sophisticated local media market in the world, which is LA.Good luck,Eadwig (long in PURP and looking to add if it drops to below @370p again).
kiama42
20 Sep 2017
Re: SELL 384p:links to websites / legal ... Generally speaking, website reviews are heavily weighted towards negative reviews. People are more likely to want to have a moan about something if they feel hard done by, than write a review about a positive experience.Very broad assumptions Thirty linking that to increase marketing and legal fees...Trading update at the end of this month will be interesting, will go one of 2 ways at current valuation.I have been a holder of PURP since January 2016.
thirty fifty twenty
19 Sep 2017
Re: SELL 384p:links to websites / legal ... it may or may not affect business,i think it will as PURP will nee to spend more on marketing than they had planned, plus legal fees more than planned, anyway that is my opinion...but the stock market rating will take a pounding - there is just too much uncertainty regarding the directors, the marketplace and the company's actions.it is priced for perfection and flaxs and cracks coming from differetn angles
The Oil Boiler
19 Sep 2017
Re: SELL 384p:links to websites / legal acti... On the face of it, this doesn't look great. Plenty of decent reviews on Trustpilot where they rate as 5* and "Excellent".Find me an agent with 100% positive reviews and I'll gladly use them...
thirty fifty twenty
19 Sep 2017
SELL 384p:links to websites / legal action all agents took an unprecendentd step due to legal action threats from PURP[link] suspect that watchdog and others will be all over this again....this shows some the reviews that PURP didnt want us to see. [link] dont know the fact behind any of this but that from the investmetns perspective is not the point. PURP claim they are transparent. If these reviews are true then clearly PURP is manipulating its trsutpilot statistics.if these reviews are posted by competitors why not then tell the world that competitors are posting false reviews. it would be great publicity to say that competitors are posting false claims...so logically I infer the reviews are true but regardless it is a big big bad mark for PURPand with a share price at 30 times sales and no profits.. it can fall a long way if this turns out to affect the business as well as jus the rating.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLPURP is in my top5 (short)
thirty fifty twenty
19 Sep 2017
wow - I cant believe the price held up so well this afternoon despite the revelations.surely it is disastrous for a company that is built on openness and integrity to have its reviews banned from the market leader. not to mention that there are dozens of reviews which have been threatened with legal action ..... this is beginning to look like a couple of irish lads in Birmingham (with 2 failed estate agency businesses) hit upon a disruptive sector but now are showing a little fractures in their business acumen.What must be remembered of course if that there is no question they have done well from a standing start to generate 50m of sales.the point is that it does not warrant a 1.2bn stock market valuation!!I started to shrot when I saw the presentation and the trim and better looking CEO , in an analyst presentation, refers to his brother (who is well above average weight) and who is 'only' a regional sales director, as the "better looking brother..... " - why, at an analyst presentation, would you make such a remark??? but to me it told a thousand words about the character and ability of the CEO - I shorted the next day!!Amazing to be valued at 4 times sales (this is till a premium tech valuation) given that they have no profits and negative CASH flow would still allow the share price to fall 80% from the peak and 70% from today. That is very tempting!!! with little chance of breaking above resistance at 400p again.When I looked at PURP first I was amazed that they intended to grow the business and not imcrease marketing spend.... that suddenly meant that if one extrapolated sales growth with little cost growth you got HUGE profits.... after the bad publicity that is about to hit the newspapers and social media in the coming weeks - I think this CEO will want to increase the marketing budget to counterbalance the negatives coming out. ironically even if the negative reviews are spun from competitors they still need to counter-act them.As I said before - lots of smoke around this one... very probably a fire brewing under neath and its about to become visible!!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLPURP is in my top 5 (SHORT)
Eadwig
15 Sep 2017
Re: 'Buy' the way "Purplebricks announced that it is formally launching its business in the US today.In line with the region by region rollout successfully adopted for entry in the UK and Australian markets, the US launch will commence in Los Angeles, before extending across the state of California and other targeted key states thereafter.As the 6th largest economy in the world by GDP [California] and the leading US state in terms of both number of annual real estate transactions (442,320, source: California Association of Realtors) and an estimated commission income of $12bn p.a, California is seen as the natural launching point for US expansion."Although California, at 12.6m households has less than half the UK equivalent, the level of commission income in California is more than double that of the UK."Purplebricks has successfully adapted its technology and customer offering previously with its launch into Australia in 2016. CEO Michael Bruce said, "We have planned accordingly [for the USA move], adapting both our technology platform and customer proposition, while building out an infrastructure and local team, with decades of experience."As we rollout across California and beyond we will closely monitor progress and have the capability to further quickly and efficiently refine our model, if and where necessary."For the LREEs we recruit, Purplebricks presents an exciting new platform to build scalable, profitable businesses in their own dedicated regions, supported by our strong technology infrastructure and the benefits of our extensive TV and radio led marketing."He also said, "Purplebricks is now in three continents in just over three years. We are confident that we are leading irreversible change in the industry and that we are best placed to realise the future global opportunity."So, Hong Kong and Singapore next, maybe? Eastern China, Bombay, Taipei? If you're investing in a growth company, its always good to see the management looking at the next step, even as the latest one is hitting the ground, and they're not slow to go for the hottest regional markets.
Eadwig
14 Sep 2017
'Buy' the way Excuse the pun, but I forgot to disclose that I am holding PURP and added today @369p. I think the drop overdone. For now at least.A great trading share recently, if very hard to gauge optimum entry and exit prices.Isn't there a trading update due some time soon? I think they gave an update just prior to the AGM last year - which is scheduled for 29th Sept this year - even if there is nothing on their web site financial calendar re: AGM. Sloppy that.Weak Buy only due to pattern of lower lows and lower highs maybe establishing itself.Eadwig
Eadwig
14 Sep 2017
Re: Negative admiralty12, 22 Aug Posted, "The story is there but I think the shorters have a grip now"7Numeric Investors LLC 0.70% 0.08% 27 Jul 2017Total Purplebricks shorts = 0.70%Tables are always tricky on ii, but hopefully you'll see that PURP is barely on the shorters radar. These figures slightly out of date, by a day or two. From FCA: Funds that have never had more than 0.5% of the company shorted are not included (inc. the PURP figure)Hardly shorters having a grip, is it? Just to give some context in think you case it is:Company Name + + + + + % short + +(# of funds short)---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------CARILLION PLC . . . . . . . . .23.3% . . . . .16OCADO GROUP PLC . . . . 17.0% . . . . . .11WM MORRISON . . . . . . . . 14.7%. . . . . . 13WOOD GROUP (JOHN) . . .14.2%. . . . . . .7TELIT COMMS PLC . . . . . .13.8% . . . . . . 6DEBENHAMS PLC . . . . . . .12.9% . . . . . . 8MARKS & SPENCER . . . . .10.0% . . . . . .10TULLOW OIL PLC. . . . . . . .10.0% . . . . . ..7SAINSBURY (J) PLC . . . . . . 9.8% . . . . . .10AGGREKO PLC . . . . . . . . . . 9.3% . . . . . .. 6PETS AT HOME GROUP . . . 8.8% . . . . . . 6PETROFAC LTD . . . . . . . . . . 8.3% . . . . . . 6ULTRA ELECTRONICS . . . . 8.0% . . . . . . . 8FOXTONS GROUP PLC . . . .7.9% . . . . . . 6 <---- [ Interesting! Eadwig]COUNTRYWIDE PLC . . . . . . .7.8% . . . . . . 7MITIE GROUP PLC . . . . . . . . .7.5% . . . . . . 7PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC 7.5% . . . . . . 7PREMIER OIL PLC . . . . . . . . . .7% . . . . . . . 6DOMINO'S PIZZA GRP PLC . . 6.8% . . . . . . 9NEW MELROSE IND PLC . . . ..6.3% . . . . . .4NEXT PLC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1% . . . . . . 7IMAGINATION TECH GRP PLC 5.9% . . . . . 5ANGLO AMERICAN PLC . . . . . 5.7%. . . . . . 5GW PHARMACEUTICALS PLC.5.6% . . . . . .5J.D. WETHERSPOON PLC . . . .5.6% . . . . . .5
thirty fifty twenty
14 Sep 2017
*ignore previous* error in the RNS Ah he has not sold all, in fact he's sold about 2000 shares!!!but there was an error in the RNS which was also the reported by a couple of news agancies.wow imagine if that had happened in market hours!!!#always read the RNS yourself!
thirty fifty twenty
13 Sep 2017
at 390p woodford sells out of PURP! I thought he might have to sell some to fund liquidations in his unit fundsbut am very surprised he has sold out nearly all the sharestomorrow could be interesting!!!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLPURP is in my top5 hldgs (short)
Stratocastor79
13 Sep 2017
Where next I think they they have the high street on the back foot and I feel certain they had a hand in the tv and radio neg publicity. However, they are gaining momentum. If they can keep rattling the competition and deliver an alternative offer they will deliver!
