Artji
08 Jun 2017
Re: update Quick change of heart. Read the latest update and not impressed, so took my 10% profit and sold. Now sitting on 55% cash so well placed if the market does tank.Artji
Artji
06 Jun 2017
Re: update Tending to agree with you re the market, although I haven't sold out of anything yet. Sitting on about 30% cash though, have been for quite a long while as I struggle to find companies worth investing in, in the areas that interest me.Hope I don't leave things too late re the market.Good luck with your future investments, Artji
catsick
06 Jun 2017
Re: update I'm out of these now , been a very nice ride but I have been selling out of a lot of stuff over the last couple weeks as really the market seems to have got a bit ahead of its self ... been nice to see the turn around here ...
Artji
22 Feb 2017
Re: update "I think this will grind up to 45 cents over the next 6 months."Congratulations catsick. I thought at the time you posted that your prediction made a refreshing & realistic change to the usual "this is going to fly in the next 5 minutes" or "this will be a 10 bagger by Christmas".You didn't get it spot-on, but it's ground up to 43 cents over 9 months, so I reckon it's also been the most accurate prediction I've ever seen.I wasn't over impressed with the investor update. Very slick but I would have liked to see a bit more detail. And silence since. I suppose they're not going to go out and buy anything until the outcome is decided, but I hope they're earning their money by scoping out some good opportunities for if the vote passes, and also getting the existing 100% owned plantations running profitably, and the ones they don't want sold off.Results released 22nd April last year, so we've got a bit off a wait before the next update.Artji
Artji
24 Aug 2016
Re: RESULTS I agree there's very little risk here with the buyback supporting the share price, but think there's still a lot of work to be done. Stafford have done well to get good prices on disposals, and cut costs, and there are more disposals planned - the rest of Pradera Roja and Eucateca's teak plantations, and winding up GTF, but then what? Cashing in assets isn't a long term strategy. And most of the NAV gain came from volatile & reversible currency gains, so I won't get too excited about that.As the portfolio shrinks I also think $2m admin costs in 6m may start to look a bit on the high side, for overseeing 3 (planned to become 2) 100% owned plantations and 3 (planned to become 2) minority investments in Matariki, Aurora Forestal & GTF (I'm not counting NTP, it's such a small investment).The 100% owned plantations are performing poorly, $1m loss in 6m, so I feel much more focus needs to be put on these. I think the most important news for the rest of the year will be the release of the 5 year plan, then we can get an idea of where the Fund thinks it's going. You could say they've cut the fat, now it's time to start getting what's left working much harder, including the cash.All IMHO, Artji
catsick
24 Aug 2016
RESULTS all very nice indeed , nice boost to nav and 50$ million in the bank , they now have plenty of cash to keep buying with nav at 54 cents and the price at 40 they are still getting the buyback done at a good discount, they really is very little risk buying these here as the company have a rock solid bid at these levels so its a low risk trade, with NAV 5 cents higher I wonder if they will also up the price they will pay a little
Artji
01 Jun 2016
Re: update I've since realised, after looking deeper into things, that the vote this year is for a 12 month extension, then next year it's for a 5 year extension i.e. if the company & fund managers prove themselves over the next 12 months then we give them a longer term remit.If things continue to improve then I see no problem with either of these votes. This years is 17th June so we'll know it soon. FWIW my piddlin little holding has been voted in favour.
Bob the Lurker
01 Jun 2016
Re: update Thanks for the info, very much appreciate it.Yeah, I think the continuation vote was what I had in mind, I just hadn't realised it was a yearly vote. Continued buybacks will be a very nice slow burning plus to the price. Wish I hadn't exhausted my doubling down patience with this lot many years ago..
catsick
20 May 2016
update The update was all in line with expectations , the stafford guys are doing a good job and the company is now in safe hands, looks like they are going to spend the cash on hand supporting the shares and closing the gap to NAV , given how much cash they have there is little risk to the share price here as they can support it with a huge pile of cash and every buy slightly increases the nav. I think this will grind up to 45 cents over the next 6 months The continuation vote should now pass easily, if they keep going for another year they and then request a further extension I don't see a problem if they keep closing the nav gap Feeling happy to get in at the bottom of this one after slagging the previous crooks off for a long time .....
Artji
19 May 2016
Re: Turned the corner Liked the update, changed my mind, and bought some more.Fingers crossed.Artji
Artji
12 May 2016
Re: Turned the corner Hello BobI guess you may well know the answer to your question by now, but is it:17th June AGMSPECIAL BUSINESSOrdinary Resolution7. The Company shall continue in being until its 2017 Annual General Meeting.This is an annual thing though, so maybe not.I've held some of these for years, and am about 43% down, but like catsick have been much encouraged by the changes over the last 12 months. Unlike catsick I haven't put my money where my mouth is yet. At the moment it feels a bit like a play on the referendum result, cos if we vote to stay in I expect the £ to strengthen against the $ and so the shares will become relatively cheaper. At the moment I think that's the most likely outcome.Definitely now a company worth watching though.Artji
Bob the Lurker
29 Apr 2016
Re: Turned the corner Hi Catsick,Nice to see some optimistic views from you. I have held these for many years and am showing roughly a 50% loss but have always kept them because of the huge discount to NAV and the belief that surely any fool can grow trees and the demand for trees is unlikely to entirely collapse.I don't know if the 4 winds characters were fools with regards to trees but they were definitely not with regards to negotiating the terms of their pay! Well rid of them.I had it in my "notes" that April/May 2016 there was going to be some kind of major decision made regarding the company but now I can't remember/find out what it was. Maybe there was going to be a vote on whether to wind up the company? I really can't remember but I wrote down that I should wait until said decision was made before I decide to sell or stick.Any ideas what I might have read which gave me this idea?!Many thanks
catsick
19 Nov 2015
Turned the corner 1 - kick out the shysters - done2 - Find a competent new management group with experience in managing forests rather than financial chicanery - done 3 - Major kitchen sinking exercise - done 4 - Directors know its the bottom and start buying in 5 - Now start doing deals to realize the value of the assets above where they are n ow marked This is looking better now, getting realizations well above valuation shows the assets are marked as low as they can be and the only way is up There is very good demand now for wood chips etc to be used in biomass electricity generation and supply is very tight, I think we will see plenty more deals ...
catsick
06 Nov 2015
looking better Things look to have become stable, the patient is out of IC Directors hovering up sharesPrice stabilizedDebt taken out of NZ asset by partner looking to increase stake Kitchen sinking operation complete
catsick
13 Mar 2015
So I finally changed my mind .... There has been a considerable change in the prospects for this company,Getting rid of the crooks at 4 winds is the best thing they could have done, the guys at stafford are decent forest managers who are doing a much better job for a fraction of the fees, going forward I think they will bring proper professional oversight to the assets of the company. It looks like a "kitchen sinking" exercise is now going on, write down all the assets as much as possible and get any bad news possible out of the way.The asset in new zealand they own 35% of is an excellent asset and actually produces much more cash than would first appear, Rayonier are the other JV partner and they show this forest is producing 46 mio Usd of Ebitda per year, the reason this is not showing up in the accounts as a huge profit is they take a depletion charge for the trees cut down of over 30 million but to not take a positive biological revaluation of the growing trees. Phaunos receive a small dividend and this is all they claim as income but Rayonier post profits based on the way larger Ebitda number and pay a fat dividend on the back of this , Rayonier has a market cap of over 3 billion us and this forest represents about 20-25% of thier business and profits , They also trade at more than 2 times book value which shows the valuation change that we could enjoy if this new management really does sort things out. I think we will get one more set of nasty numbers with well and truly every bit of bad news thrown in and then we will start to see the company being run much better and exiting positions at a premium to the lower book values, the new market cap based incentive structure aligns incentives well and I hope I managed to buy in close to the bottom for this stock
