Eadwig
08 Aug 2017
Re: Help To Buy Scare 4 August 2017 Friday. David ParsleyThe government has embarked on a review of the Help to Buy housing scheme, which could result in it being wound down or replaced before its scheduled end in April 2021.The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) has asked the London School of Economics (LSE) to conduct an independent evaluation as part of the review.The LSE report will be delivered to the DCLG after it has heard the views of interested parties including the Home Builders Federation (HBF), housebuilders and housing charities. Property Week understands that the DCLG is not ruling out options, inc. scrapping the scheme entirely. Issues under review are believed to include the introduction of a tapering system before the end of the scheme, under which assistance to homebuyers would be gradually reduced in the run-up to April 2021. Housebuilders have been lobbying for tapering to be introduced as an alternative to the ‘cliff-edge’ proposal, which would see demand drop sharply at scheme end.The government, which made no mention of Help to Buy in its 2017 election manifesto, is also understood to be considering more stringent criteria for applicants. This could include the scheme being restricted to first-time buyers; a reduction in the max. sale price; or a lowering of the max. household income. Tougher affordability hurdles could also be introduced.The government may also implement closer independent monitoring of prices charged for Help to Buy properties to ensure they match those of equivalent non-Help to Buy homes.New housing minister Alok Sharma has yet to declare a position on Help to Buy. “We have committed £8.6bn for the scheme to 2021, ensuring it continues to support homebuyers and stimulate housing supply,” he said.“We also recognise the need to create certainty for prospective homeowners and developers beyond 2021, so will work with the sector to consider the future of the scheme.”David O’Leary, HBF policy director, said the scheme had played a key role in delivering new homes. “The future of the scheme is a critical factor in the investment decisions being made by housebuilders up and down the country,” he said. “The HBF and its members are supporting the government’s independent evaluation of the scheme, led by the LSE, which will demonstrate the important role the scheme is playing in driving up the delivery of new homes and getting households on to the housing ladder.”After housebuilder shares fell in early trading this morning, a spokesman for DCLG added: “The department regularly reviews the Help to Buy Equity Loan Scheme, with the last review taking place in 2015. To infer from this that the Help to Buy Equity Loan scheme will be cancelled is simply incorrect.”Across England around 30% of private completions have made use of Help to Buy over recent years. In the listed space, the highest exposure is at Persimmon (over 50% of private completions) and lowest at Berkeley (below 5%) and McCarthy & Stone (0 as all retirement homes). Help to Buy creates a distinct advantage for the new build sector, as it allows purchase of new build properties with only a 5% deposit but providing attractive interest rates at below 2%. Purchasing new build with Help to Buy can be 15-20% cheaper than renting and up to 30% cheaper than buying with a 95% LTV mortgage.Assuming around 40% of private volumes use HTB and these have not incurred a 400-500bps incentive costs, we estimate this would result in a 2% margin impact or 10% of earnings. Volumes could also be impacted. Industry estimates suggest this scheme has resulted in around a 15% boost to volumes.The final variable which is hard to estimate is the impact on pricing, to the extent new build prices have benefited from the existence of the subsidy. The impact will depend heavily on whether there is an unexpected abrupt end to the scheme or a taper or an end which has long lead times, which would allow the industry
PrefInvestor1
05 Aug 2017
Help To Buy Scare Hi All,Pretty well convinced personally that this is just a scare story and that there is no way they will pull the HTB scheme before 2021. The DCLG has said it is committed to the programme till then in one of the articles I read. Housebuilders have been lobbying for changes to the scheme to introduce a taper to prevent a cliff edge type end in 2021 which might be an outcome of this review. Might also do something about the leasehold situaton I suspect ?.Thats my view anyway FWIW - I bought more PSN, BDEV & TW during Fridays dip. Recent results have been stellar.ATBPref
rhino666
04 Aug 2017
Re: price Hopefully you saw this as a buying opportunity.
Baker2005
04 Aug 2017
Re: price [link] to believe a simple article could cause 5% fall in the sector... Shows how nervy the markets are..
chronicle
04 Aug 2017
price Whats going on 173 down?
malj1
05 Jul 2017
Re: H1 performance Can't fault these figs on any metric! Where is the much quoted collapse of housing market?! Separately looks lie the recent rise in general inflation is starting to plateau - so a one off impact so long as wages remain muted, meaning interest rates unlikely to rise.
riverside red
05 Jul 2017
Brokers notes You have to laugh.Jefferies International reiterate their hold and increase their target by £2..... To £23.16, who pays these jokers?
Hang in to the bitter end
05 Jul 2017
H1 performance "Excellent" Say PSN .... could be an interesting day HITTBE
Eadwig
06 Jun 2017
Re: Ex divi 15th June stabilo1, "just bought some in a dip ahead of the special ex divi "It isn't a special dividend, its the normal dividend, as timetabled some years ago. Difficult history to it all, but you can find ample explanation on these boards or the PSN site.There has been a drop off in the housing sector share prices over the last few days - not exactly certain why. PSN have held up very well, I'm sure because of this dividend coming up.I'm afraid that not only will PSN drop by the usual amount of the divi on ex-div day, it might take on falls to catch up with the rest of the sector at the same time. It all depends how the sector does between now and Ex-div day. As it stands, I'd expect a drop of around 170p-250p. I'll continue to hold anyway, so take my prediction as you will.
Stabilo1
05 Jun 2017
Ex divi 15th June just bought some in a dip ahead of the special ex divi
sparks1962
23 May 2017
Re: Bricks, demand, suppliers, stock Am seeing a lot of interest from Contractors and Consultants in UK products as a result of the increased costs of foreign imports. Architects are moaning that their concepts are being destroyed but those responsible for the budgets are happy.
Rhigos
23 May 2017
Re: Bricks, demand, suppliers, stock I have given up on my idea of investing in brick manufacturers as I think there is now over supply. Building of flats and as pointed out prefab reduce demand for bricks. Instead I recently bought WJG, "Watkin Jones provides an end-to-end solution in developing large scale, multi occupancy accommodation projects, with a primary focus on the student accommodation market."I heard of them through Eadwig, thanks, and then researched them and liked the look of them. Now have three companies involved in Student property ESP, DIGS and now WJG (5.8% of portfolio in total).
Eadwig
23 May 2017
Re: Bricks, demand, suppliers, stock Agreed with the build-to-rent sector using modular housing, and even 3D printing methods on-site to throw up units very quickly (not in UK yet, but will be in very short order).Lest we forget, PSN has its own prefabrication factory and bought its own brick factory to help overcome brick shortages rather than import from abroad to meet demand, which many had to resort to for a while.Ibstock (another I sold out of just before it really took off!) also have massively upped there capacity for brick production with the building of a brand new factory for which they had to raise a lot of cash.
sparks1962
22 May 2017
Re: Bricks, demand, suppliers, stock The growth in the Build to Rent marketplace following the interest from financial institutions seems to be resulting in a massive increase in interest in pre-fabrication or modern methods of construction as it seems to be called these days, so totally agree Space4 should be exploited a lot more to take advantage of this market before it becomes a bubble.
charlus
22 May 2017
Re: Bricks, demand, suppliers, stock Hi Rhigos,Personally I would like to see Persimmon make more use of prefabricated house from its Space4 division. I know pre fab is associated with crappy post war housing but you just have to look at what Scandanavian and especially German companies produce in a factory to see the potential in terms of build quality and build time. And not a brick or indeed brickie in sight.The UK needs to build a lot of houses and quickly. "second generation closed panel timber frame houses" could be the way forward.GLA,Chozza
