PrefInvestor1
24 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Well not if you use guaranteed stops surely ?. But I can see that you are managing your exposure by minimising your margin. Personally I would have stops set for profit taking as well if it was me (but each to their own obviously). Good luck with it anyway. Having tried it for a few weeks I decided never again… ATB Pref
IAmShareCrazy
24 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Stops are useless because they slip and often market makers spike the share price. 500 margin not big. I expect most of them to continue down. Read up on the Altman Z score. Puts the odds more in your favour!
PrefInvestor1
24 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Wot no stops ?. To take profits / stem losses. I had a play with spreadbetting last year and found that using stops was essential, and I was only playing with virtual money. With the markets as they are SBing without is a brave decision, most things are UP today which won’t please you. ATB Pref
J_Westlock
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders SaraRacano: Isn´t that the real reason they brought in a liquids ban, just to make a bit more money out of people waiting at airports? WH Smith is so post 1990´s. You would have thought the likes of Tesco would finish them in the 1990´s. The rents at the likes of Heathrow & Gatwick must be astronomical (so are their prices). Locations are important but does the consumer still want the product? I am totally lost with WH Smith! Maybe… well the liquids ban didn’t stop the Novichok nerve agent supposedly coming into the country… nor a peculiar looking perfume bottle (assuming both originated outside of the UK). The ones at train stations and airports are busy for less than 3 hrs each day and many of the stores look like khasis… I see a contraction for them approaching.
SaraRacano
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders relying on bored travelers Isn´t that the real reason they brought in a liquids ban, just to make a bit more money out of people waiting at airports? WH Smith is so post 1990´s. You would have thought the likes of Tesco would finish them in the 1990´s. The rents at the likes of Heathrow & Gatwick must be astronomical (so are their prices). Locations are important but does the consumer still want the product? I am totally lost with WH Smith!
J_Westlock
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Only a question of time before WHSmith goes the same way as Poundworld. The High St is almost dead so to have a goal of being Britain’s most popular high street stationer, bookseller and newsagent isn’t that great. They have good locations at stations, airports etc (ie. relying on bored travelers) and that’s where I expect they will remain rather than the High St… if they can make enough money out of it.
SaraRacano
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders You´re right, I was looking at the 3 month chart in sunlight, I saw underneath a 2013. 2100p to around the 1700p mark puts the share in bear territory (a 20% fall in 52 weeks). This is some amazing SP growth since 2013, especially being a High street retailer, what has been the driving force behind it? But Bowman, the key thing with any bubble is once any bubble bursts it very seldom re-inflates. Just going on a hunch without specific empirical examples, if you´re a long term holder say since 600p & the share peaks at 2100p & then starts to fall 20% it´s probably advisory to sell & take your profits.
IAmShareCrazy
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Companies like Circassia, Allied Minds or Velocys are ripe for shorting. Low or non existent revenues and big year on year debts which was through cash piles from fundraising.
Bowman
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Which chart are you looking at? SMWH was nowhere near 2100p in 2013, Yes they have dropped a long way since their peak in December 2017, but then the markets have in general also fallen. A large portion of that drop happened this month, and resulted from their last results announcement, which was not taken too positively despite the quite respectable numbers. This came against a lot of retail negativity coupled with the general market weakness which both amplified the poor view of SMWH’s prospects. I believe that you are not alone at not understanding how SMWH has managed to keep going up over the recent years… My personal view is that the drop has been overdone, and these should reverse back towards 2000p once the markets settle down a bit. However, I am glad now I took to opportunity to top slice my holding at 2100p last year, although I might be tempted to add again when I see the trend reversing. SMWHt.png2880x1785 207 KB
SaraRacano
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders I am glad you trust the accounting of many of these companies. Most of the time I get the feeling that most of these corporate accounts are at best misleading. Note the ECB, outsourcing a financial audit of Europe´s top 130 banks to Blackrock (huge conflict of interest). Banks true balance sheets are huge guarded secrets. Tesco, who saw that coming? Not PwC! Moody´s downgrades Italian debt to BBB - Just enough for the ECB to keep buying.
IAmShareCrazy
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Not for me. I am sticking to low Altman Z score and Pitroski F score companies or ones with both. Preferably a free cash flow to debt ratio below 0.05. A Gap down (preferably below all the major moving average), a bearish chart pattern - see technical insight or break of trend line - prorealti good for auto trend lines and trend breakouts) No guarantees of course!
SaraRacano
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders I have them at 54p. What do you think about WH Smith? It already looks in bear territory. From 2100p in 2013, to around 1700p today. This business model has me absolutely astounded how they have survived. Books have gone online, “newspaper†sales have dived since the end of of 99. CD´s/DVD´s (confined to history). Travel agency (DIY these days). Not sure too much if people buy magazines. I remember the days when everybody (a whole line) would just go into the shop & read the magazines & walk out. I have never understood WH Smith.
IAmShareCrazy
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders screencapture-financials-spreadex-en-GB-2018-10-23-10_01_05.png1325x1059 76.3 KB
IAmShareCrazy
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders No worries on that one! 25/09/2018 09:31 Communisis, Mar UK Shares 70.00 54 Closed -7.00
SaraRacano
23 Oct 2018
Not Looking Good For Housebuilders Not looking good for you big boy, Communisis, up nearly 40% today alone! Your thesis looks to be some what floored should we say. You have had some seriously, seriously big moves against you in such a short space of time. My Weir, now is moving in the right direction (for me) since 1600p, it´s 4.5% down. I reckon in due course you´ll pick this up for less than 250p.
