II Editor
14 Dec 2016
NEW ARTICLE: 10 Dividend Dogs from this top income strategy "UK companies have paid out £1 trillion in dividends over the last 16 years. At the current rate of growth, the second trillion will be paid out within 10 years.There is no doubt that dividend income is a huge contributor to total stockmarket ..."[link]
Warren Buffoon
30 Nov 2016
Re: PSN - Dividend Info Thank you Eadwig. Sensible summary of the dividend situation.
Eadwig
29 Nov 2016
PSN - Dividend Info shovelier, "Div not due until March !? "For Ex-div probably, yes. Paid only once a year so no hurry to get in. There is now no benefit from the 'return of capital to shareholders' plan that used to be in place, but now it is treated exactly like a normal interim dividend. Paid in April or July, The ex-div date is around early-mid March as a rule, and not announced until the final results (mid-late Feb). Which hopefully will upgrade the planned payment too, but we'll have to see.Official payment is still currently 110p per share on 5th or 6th July 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 according to the payment timetable:[link] plan used to pay in July, but brought forward to April to avoid new tax rules, then it stayed there the following year too (last year), so I expect it will again. I wish they would go back to normal dividend payments. Quarterly would be nice, but I'd take bi-annually like most FTSE 100 companies. As it stands, it is unnecessarily confusing for investors.The frequency of payment does actually make quite a significant difference to the yield if calculating a compound interest return on your dividend payments. PSN need to take note! A change from yearly to quarterly might make 1/2% difference to compounded yield. Not sure how much it would cost PSN additionally though.
shovelier
29 Nov 2016
Re: Added Today @1688p Div not due until March !?
Eadwig
28 Nov 2016
Re: Added Today @1688p Eadwig "For reasons given below, but basically a dividend yield play with some growth potential. "I actually posted a lot of my reasons for buying - or adding on weakness around @1700p, elsewhere. I've copied it over from various places, so a bit disjointed, jokey in places and some details repeated. No time to clean it all up though. Some also actually on this board below on 16th November and 23 August26 November"Another BDEV non-exec has just bought a large number of shares in the open market, thus underlining my previous statements that the board are now seeing BDEV as a sound place in which to invest for dividends. Most of us would define that as a decent yield with a positive chance of capital growth in addition.I personally still prefer PSN [to BDEV] as a yield play, strongest balance sheet in the sector, lowest average selling price limiting risk of interest rate rises and almost no exposure to the greater volatility surrounding property within the M25. The dividend timetable is already laid out until 2021, with every chance of improvements to be made to that."17 November"Eadwig Asset Management issued a WEAK BUY - add on weakness - for Persimmon (PSN) the UK, house builder, noting the absence of debt, limited exposure to the south east and none to the London market, but good coverage in the midlands and north where BDEV had just reported strong growth. EAM believe PSN have room for more growth yet in this cycle.PSN have a timetabled dividend of @110p a share for the next 5 years to 2021.EAM said, "We believe these yearly payments will be increased because PSN, whose HQ is next door to EAM's HQ in York, are having problems closing their cash till due to around a billion quid stuffed in it. They don't like keeping that sort of cash on the premises, so they tend to pay it back to shareholders. As it stands they already have the next 3 year's payments more or less covered".At the time PSN was @1709p (yield approx 6.3%). PSN rose 1% on the EAM note release (or possibly some other factor). More info on the PSN board."18 November"PSN's business model is wholly based on the expectation of a cyclical sector with a serious downturn always allowed for on the balance sheet. It's operational directors have all been in the business long enough to have experienced two or three cycles so know what its all about.I spoke about the non-exposure to the most volatile market, London, and their average house price is about an average salary or two lower than many other builders. So, less vulnerable to rising mortgage rates.No debt to service, except a rotating facility not drawn on at the moment.The main weakness is their 4/5 star rating has dropped to a 3/5 star rating in terms of customer satisfaction for the last two years.Not certain exactly why, I could speculate and would probably be right, but wont because I haven't researched that aspect. They're supposedly addressing it.To be entirely cynical, the latter doesn't seem to impact their profitability improving. Not that I in any way condone poorer quality, but this is an investing site. I'd still like to see them raise that to the more standard 4/5 star industry rating that all FTSE 100 builders should be looking for as a minimum in my opinion. "
Eadwig
28 Nov 2016
Added Today @1688p Plus stamp duty ... For reasons given below, but basically a dividend yield play with some growth potential.
II Editor
17 Nov 2016
NEW ARTICLE: FTSE 100 about to get exciting "Investors have gone all defensive today, with utilities enjoying some time in the sun after an ugly sell-off in recent weeks. Traders are taking some money off the table elsewhere, however, given ongoing speculation around the new Trump ..."[link]
Eadwig
16 Nov 2016
Good News From BDEV WEAK BUY - Add on weakness [One divi payment timetabled p.a. currently planned at 110p per share each of the next 5 years to 2021 (total 550p per share)]Buy @1650p = 6.67% yieldBuy @1800p = 6.1% yieldBDEV have announced its earnings report which, in short, shows good progress everywhere except higher end prices in London. Especially Midlands and Northern England showing rising sales and returns. This is good news for PSN which has wider exposure to the growth areas and none to central London (I think) and much less in the south east.Based on PSN's latest earnings report and guidance and BDEV's market analysis I believe it is worth adding PSN on any pull back. In my opinion, PSN are still best of breed in the sector for me and actually have more potential growth than the other major players.I expect them to increase their return of capital to shareholders amount at least one more time in this housing cycle. I'd rather they now converted that to a standard dividend policy so that private investors wouldn't be so confused about returns and payments would revert to two a year not one.I've included my summary for BDEV posted on the BDEV board below:Acknowledging the slow down in London at the high end of the market (watch out BKG holders!), the group remains strong with rising sales across the rest of England, predicting 2017 will be similar to 2016, so transitioning from fast growth into a strong and stable dividend payer, as I have noted previously.Buying BDEV now is a dividend play rather than a growth play, but growth could still yet be boosted depending on the outcome of Brexit and the new governments policies to help house buyers or very possibly Buy-to-let (BTL) landlords. The latter if you take notice of the calls in the press for the recent stamp duty laws to be revised or even revoked. The above is all my opinion from past figures, management execution and cautious approach and this statement. Below are some key points from the statement."Total forward sales (including JVs) as at 13 November 2016 were up 4.3% on the prior year at a value of £2,654.3m (15 November 2015: £2,544.6m), equating to 11,733 plots (15 November 2015: 11,133 plots). Wholly owned forward sales were up strongly by 19.5% to £2,466.1m (2015: £2,062.9m).""The Group expects to deliver further good progress on operating performance in FY17, with modest growth in wholly owned completions, and is on track to achieve its target of a minimum ROCE of 25%. We remain focused on delivery of 20% gross margin for FY17 notwithstanding that the high-end London market presents some headwinds in this regard. Overall trading remains in-line with market expectations."We remain committed to our cash return policy and expect to deliver cash returns of c. £1bn of dividends (based on consensus earnings) in the three year period to November 2017."[The above is important - effectively giving forward guidance for P/E with no fall in returns expected]* Sales rate of 0.74 (2015: 0.71) net private reservations per active outlet per average week* Total forward sales (including joint ventures ('JVs')) up by 4.3% to £2,654.3m (2015: £2,544.6m), with wholly owned forward sales up strongly by 19.5% to £2,466.1m (2015: £2,062.9m)* As previously announced the Board has proposed a record dividend payment of £248m payable on 21 November 2016"Market conditions in London at higher selling prices remain more challenging. To mitigate these risks we have taken pricing action on a number of our sites in London. Further actions to de-risk London delivery include an exchanged build and sale agreement on a bespoke development of 39 apartments for a total value of £47m. We launched 69 new developments in the period (including JVs) (2015: 51). We are currently operating from 385 sites (including JVs) (2015: 380), with average site numbers (including JVs) for the period to date of 370 (2015: 386), down 4.1% on the comparable perio
Eadwig
10 Nov 2016
RICS House Price Balance +23% LONDON (Alliance News) - The house price balance in the UK jumped 23% in October, the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Thursday.That beat forecasts for an increase of 18%, which would have been unchanged from the previous month following an upward revision from 17%.The housing market continues to rebound, analysts suggested, following the volatility induced by the Brexit vote over the summer.DEFINITION of 'RICS House Price Balance' - InvestopediaAn indicator of the expected monthly change in house prices in the UK, published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The RICS house price balance is based on opinions about housing price trends of a sample size of surveyors based in the UK, covered by the RICS monthly Housing Market Survey.The house price balance figure is calculated as the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in housing prices minus the proportion reporting a fall in prices. A positive net balance implies that more surveyors are seeing housing price increases than decreases, which would imply a robust housing market. A negative net balance implies that more surveyors are witnessing housing price decreases than increases, implying a fragile housing market.BREAKING DOWN 'RICS House Price Balance'Example: Assume that in a survey of 300 surveyors, 120 reported that prices went up, 129 reported no change and 51 reported that prices went down. Proportionally therefore, 40% reported higher prices and 17% reported lower prices, for a net house price balance of +23%.
Hydrogen Economy
02 Nov 2016
Trading Update Housing crash, house price fall, sales decline - all phrases notably absent from PSN's update today. What is in there is very positive. Sales up 19% on last year with prices remaining firm- and last year fantastic for builders!Good to see PSN investing in space 4 manufacture and brickworks control input costs and increase UK content (avoiding more expensive imports)Some selected extracts below, full text worth reading :- H2Trading over the summer weeks immediately following the EU Referendum ..the number of customers visiting our sites remaining well ahead of last year. Our private sales rate in the period since we reported our half year results on 23 August 2016 has been 19% ahead of last year... fully sold up for the current year .. c. £757 million of forward sales reserved beyond 2016, an increase of 4% on the same point last year (2015: £726 million). .. resilient consumer confidence and strong lender support. The reduction in the bank base rate in August has resulted in more attractive mortgage products.. Mortgage interest rates remain compelling, especially for first time buyers utilising the Help to Buy shared equity scheme. Pricing remains firm across our regional markets. Our strategy emphasises disciplined investment in high quality new land at the appropriate point in the market cycle to sustain superior shareholder value over the long term... we recognise that the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the EU Referendum result on the UK economy may continue for some time. Therefore, we remain cautious with respect to new land investment but have continued to progress attractive opportunities on a selective basis. We acquired 7,580 new plots of land, and spent £116 million, including payment of deferred land creditors, during the period. c. 55% of the replacement land we have acquired so far this year from our strategic land portfolio. we welcome the Government's initiatives under the Neighbourhood Planning Bill. The Group opened 108 new housing developments in the first half of the year and has launched a further 102 new sites in the second half to date. We expect to open c. 45 new sites in the remaining weeks of 2016. The availability of new sites and the appropriate level of skilled trade resources remain key challenges. The improved coverage of our Group house types together with the increase in output planned from our Space4 MMC* facility, will continue to help address this latter challenge, while also supporting increased productivity and efficiency. ... increasing the number of new homes we build ...higher returns on the capital . .. further investment in the Group's manufacturing capability with the construction of our new "Brickworks" factory... substantial proportion of the Group's requirement for bricks... located near Doncaster, will be commissioned in the first quarter of 2017. We expect the Group's operating margin to improve in the second half of the year from the 23.8%** achieved in the first six months. .. new regional operating business near Nottingham on 2 January 2017, bringing the total number of new businesses opened in the last two years to five. The Group is likely to hold increased cash balances at the year end (31 December 2015: £570.4 million).
Rhigos
03 Oct 2016
Gov. £5bn boost to speed up house building From Flossoffa on BKG board:[link] is my favoured house builder
Rhigos
30 Sep 2016
Valuing house-builders by Phil Oakley IMO this article by Phil Oakley is well worth reading:[link] sharp rise in SP when wider market down proves IMO that yesterday's sharp fall was unwarranted. IMO house-builders are undervalued at the moment. They were falling before referendum but then sentiment turned far too much against them IMO. There is still a shortage of houses. Profits may be lower going forward for house-builders but I think they can still outperform.
Eadwig
23 Aug 2016
Re: Broker rec makes no sense?? LoadsDosh, [Liberum Capital reiterates 'HOLD' and Target @1486p after today's results.]"Why on earth would you advise anyone to hold if you thought the price was headed for a 20% fall?"Perhaps they're expecting a very large rise in the dividend? Like 110p to 440p?Easy work if you can get it, for these analysts, it seems to me, very often well behind the curve on their target advice - apart from a few that are real specialists in certain sectors.I wonder how Liberum Capital would answer your question if you were a customer and you put it to them.
The Haymaker
23 Aug 2016
But if you buy your house from them you need your head testing Half built houses are pretty much the norm. Bodgit & Scarper would be a far more appropriate trading n
II Editor
23 Aug 2016
NEW ARTICLE: What Brexit? Persimmon now up 60% since EU vote "LSE
SNersimmon beat expectations this year following knockout first-half profit and cash generation. The housebuilder and its rivals have raced higher and, after the market recoiled in fear in the aftermath of Brexit, management appears to be ..."[link]
