Akis1999
21 Feb 2017
Re: How will PSN fare when Help to Buy s... Can't argue about interest rates going up however we are very densely populated, we have seemingly unstoppable inward immigration and a great lack of house stock to the point that the government is encouraging building on the green belt. The 20% fall in the pound is making investment in the UK cheaper. All these factors cannot possibly be ignored.
Rhigos
08 Feb 2017
Re: How will PSN fare when Help to Buy s... malj1,I agree with your reasoning to explain "So the gov't is not going to introduce policies to reduce house prices. " but how will that square with releasing land to build on? Perhaps they will not release enough land for building on to make much difference.IMO base interest rates cannot stay as low as 0.25% for long. Inflation will kick in this year because of weaker pound. That is going to cause big problems and I cannot see how it will not drive down house prices. Not much government can do about rise in interest rate as controlled by BoE.If you are wondering why PSN has gone up so much recently, good results yesterday from Bellway boosted the sector and the fact that I sold 1/6 of my PSN shares yesterday morning, at 1975.25p, to raise some cash in my ISA. Annoyingly SP nearly allways go up after I sell a share 
. Have applied for DIGS shares in offer they are having to raise equity to buy student accommodation in London, this is why I needed cash. I still like PSN.
malj1
03 Feb 2017
Re: How will PSN fare when Help to Buy s... Hmmm ............. a touch of the doomster shorting here in the original source.But it's worth thinking about house market & prices in the context of the aggregate UK banking system. Thumbnail sketch as follows.There are about 13 mortgages already historically in existence for each mortgage currently being issued. NML currently is growing in the range ca 1%-3% - so the banks are doing little more than recycle the repayment stream they are receiving from historic mortgages. Were prices of houses currently bought/sold to fall £1 each, the banks have to reduce the capital security value against their mortgages by £1 each = £1 * 13 write down against reserve capital/shf. They loan their capital out ca 10* pa, so that's a reduction of lending ca £130 for each £ off house prices. This is known as a credit crunch. Further banks trade/speculate on mortgage securities via options etc. Given the gearing inherent on these you can stick a zero or two at least on the write down of capital - this what played out in the CC & why the banks were recapitalised. This hasn't gone away, this is how the system works. The difference is that this time the gov't & banks understand this. So the gov't is not going to introduce policies to reduce house prices. That would be the equivalent of cruising down the motorway at a steady 70mph & then engaging reverse - you'll simply strip & destroy the engine. We'll see what the housing white paper says shortly. But gov't support in whatever form will be here for a considerable time.
Hydrogen Economy
03 Feb 2017
Re: How will PSN fare when Help to Buy stops... RhigosThanks, a interesting read for all the cos listed.HTB is and has been a useful support to the market, it was launched with an end date of 2021 so that has always been factored into market valuation. Its still a way off, but as the date approaches I guess it will be more of an influence but only one of many along with interest rates, Brexit, immigration, inflation, economy etc.I would be surprised if the Government would be willing to stand by and watch the housing market collapse and building work to stop, it is such an important part of the economy and an influence on the mood of the electorate. My guess is that HTB would be replaced, extended or some other measures (like cutting stamp duty) to wean the market off the habit but then maybe we will have JC as PM by then and privately owned housing will be anathema to be taxed out of existence in favour of council estates, God help us.I am out of PSN and most builders having had a great run for the last 4 years. I think there are still opportunities but feel the market is oversensitive to news flow at present which makes it a risk. I may be tempted back in if there is such a panic and SP dips significantly, as in the bargain days last July. Who knows, Article 50 might just do it.As for compensation VX1, I am unclear how that relates to HTB, could you please elaborate?H2
vx1
02 Feb 2017
Re: How will PSN fare when Help to Buy stops... just wait for those compensation claims to start rolling in. these builder will be paying out millions. The govt has not alternative but to step in and make them pay out. This is only going to get worst. sell sell sell.
Rhigos
06 Jan 2017
How will PSN fare when Help to Buy stops? Phil Oakley's Weekly Roundup.The well respected analyst in this weekly roundup analyses several companies including NXT and PSN: [link] roundup well worth a read IMO.This bit should be of concern to PSN shareholders:" Persimmon is one of the major beneficiaries of Help to Buy which accounts for 4 in every 10 houses it sells. How will it fare when Help to Buy stops?"
Rhigos
05 Jan 2017
Re: Added @1688p Sold @1749p Eadwig, "The capital plan is now just a useless anachronism since the law was changed"I agree, some data suppliers give the yield as zero which although true for dividend yield hides actual yield, according to ShareScope, of 6.08% at yesterday's close (at a SP of 1915.5 yield 5.75%).I agree with your comments on PSN which gives a good overview.PSN was featured on Bloomberg as one of the biggest risers in the Euro Stock 600. It compared its 2016 performance with some other UK house-builders; PSN down about 6%, BDEV -20%, TW.-18%, BVS -18%, BKG -22%. Total return on PSN must have been about break-even and clearly the best performer of the bunch. They suggested on Bloomberg that government ambitions to increase houses being built, particularly lower priced ones, might result in a lot of smaller builders expanding as public land and brown field sites released to them. This would have a negative affect for big house builders like PSN by taking away skilled labourers so increase labour costs push up price of raw materials and depress land prices.I am not planning to sell PSN yet and they are my 3rd largest shareholding at 4.8% by value. PSN becoming Hold, perhaps a weak Sell IMO.
Eadwig
05 Jan 2017
PSN. Top Performer Wed, 4th January 2017 - Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its hold investment rating on PSN and cut its price target to 2069p (from 2096p).Just get that out of the way first.5th Jan. Trading Update Guidance Highlights:* Revenues for 2016 of £3.14bn were 8% higher than the prior year (2015: £2.90bn) * Legal completions increase 4.1% (599 new homes) to 15,171 (2015: 14,572).* The Group's average selling price increased by 4% to £206,700 (2015: £199,127). * The Group's private sales rate for 2016H2 15% ahead of 2015H2* H2 completion volumes 7,933 (H1: 7,238).+9.5%* Value of forward sales at 31 Dec 16 of c. £1,230m +12% (2015: £1,103m). * Acquired c. 18,700 plots of new land in 83 locations with good deferred terms* Cash balance of c. £913m at 31 Dec 16 (2015: £570m). [Told you they had nearly a Billion quid in that till of theirs.]* Building on all sites which have an implementable planning consent. Market Sentiment Guidance:Sales reservations in Autumn 'strong'. 'Healthy' customer demand for new homes.Continue to see good opportunities to acquire additional land whilst remaining mindful of risks associated with the uncertainty arising from Brexit.More in final Results for year ended 31 Dec 16, to be released on 27 Feb.Conference Call TODAY:An audiocast of the call will be available on www.corporate.persimmonhomes.com 9am GMT [Hopefully a recording will remain available]Share Price currently @1909 +5.25%
Eadwig
05 Jan 2017
Re: Added @1688p Sold @1749p Eadwig, "Added @1688p - Sold yesterday @1749p"As PSN sales beyond @1900p today I think we can safely say I miss-called that trading range I was banking on. Glad i still kept my core holding @407p untouched!
Akis1999
26 Dec 2016
Re: Added @1688p Sold @1749p Eadwig ,Thank you for the elaborate explanation.Will have to revisit near March with the divi.
Eadwig
23 Dec 2016
Re: Added @1688p Sold @1749p Akis,Yes, that example does sound bad, and I have seen some similar things myself where a partner's head became completely focussed on the possibility of the money he would make from an IPO and almost instantaneously losing further interest in the company we had built.It would have been an earlyish dot com IPO and we could have probably pulled it off. We were actually generating profits and they were growing at 10% a month at the time, which is a lot more than many that floated ever managed.We decided to keep our independence in the end. The director who lost interest then went on to attempt to found several more companies for potential IPOs and never did do any work for us again. We booted him out after a couple of years of salary for nothing. He never was part of an IPO either as far as I'm aware, although has done well for himself in a kind of niche celeb sort of way.I don't think PSN are in anyway like that though. A long established family company before they floated and very steady then (I knew someone who married into the family, as it were. PSN are from my home town of York). The Return of Capital plan was a tax efficient way to pay cash back (if you are an income tax payer) although I don't think that was ever stated. I've always assumed the original family members are still large share holders and this is why the plan was put forward and adopted. I might be wrong on that. There may have been a take over at some point in the very distant past. Anyway, if you read the directors' CVs on the web site, you'll see most of them have spent their life in the industry so probably realise all too well that their skills don't lie in financial jiggery pokery. Plus, they've probably seen all the ideas come and go through two or three housing cycles. I doubt very much they'll have their heads turned. Steady and conservative.The capital plan is now just a useless anachronism since the law was changed and should really be done away with. It is nice to have a dividend, a minimum dividend I like to think, already set out for the next 5 years (ten years originally - or was it 9?), but private investors often don't understand PSN is actually a high yielder - and came back and began paying dividends earlier than the other majors after the financial crisis decimated the market.[Decimated literally means reduced by 1 in every ten - so not the right word. Anyone's Latin up to a word for reduced by 9 in every ten?]
Akis1999
23 Dec 2016
Re: Added @1688p Sold @1749p They should concentrate mostly on making profits and distributing them in an uncomplicated way (dividends of course).When you see the directors getting obsessed about share buybacks, issues, weird dividend structures and all that jazz then you know they are not doing their day job.I was once working for a company that had just gone public. All the directors upstairs, meeting after meeting and memo after memo, it was all about the IPO, the stock market, their share price, options given to employees, the internal company structure... They had forgotten that the company was producing and selling a product and that there was no one else to do that job but them.
Eadwig
22 Dec 2016
Re: Added @1688p Sold @1749p Added @1688p - Sold yesterday @1749pAll part of building a new position in PSN in my SIPP. Or will be so long as the price drops to a little below @1700p again before the next ex-div date (or probably the full year results in mid Feb).I have limit orders permanently set at the moment for buying PSN on any drop below @1680p and sell @1749p. I hope to trade around this position as I build it to effectively reduce my book value and hence increase the yield. I've had to tighten the numbers due to the recent range PSN has traded in. If the pattern in the chart below continues through to ex-div date, I'll hopefully have a reasonable position by then.In terms of dividend yield, PSN has fallen behind a little now with its 110p payment planned once per year. In years past, PSN has been the historically highest yielder in the sector. I'm open to correction on that, but its certainly true amongst the larger builders with interests beyond London.That amount to be paid back could be increased as has been done in the past during the ten year plan. They could bring forward some of the planned payments for the remaining five years, they have done that before, but it would unbalance the current timetable which is:2017 110p2018 110p2019 110p2020 110p2021 110pThe original plan had a small payment every 2 years, and PSN filled in those gaps, by bringing later payments forward. I don't think they'd want to 'front end' the planned payout balance now by, say, making 2017 160p and 2021 60p.The other option is to transfer to a 'proper' bi-annual dividend payout and abandon the capital return plan now there are no tax benefits from it. That would also give the option to up the next dividend payout, or add a special dividend payment if they don't want to set a precedent. It would be much less confusing for new investors also. Most sites still show PSN as having no yield, as they have done, incorrectly, for years.I retain 3 tranches of the position built in my in my trading account @407p
Akis1999
21 Dec 2016
Re: PSN - Dividend Info Thank you in one message I found what I came here to find "where is the dividend?"
divvent argie
14 Dec 2016
Re: NEW ARTICLE: 10 Dividend Dogs from this ... Just bought in today as having been in and out of Berkeley a few times recently I thought I'd try my luck elsewhere now their sp is a bit too high. Interesting that in the dogs table our yield is mid-range and projected cover is 2nd best at 1.7 which makes me feel content. Happy to hang around for a while.
