Hardboy
05 Jun 2017
Trading Update They surprised me bringing it out today, but just had a read.As usual it is steady progress with improving sales, & profits. but hardly meriting the recent rise. Sales are up 7% & profits are ahead of last year - in line with management's expectations. I'm not exactly sure what that is, but last year's EPS was 17.1 so it will be higher than that. It is to be hoped that profit will grow at a greater % than sales, so maybe a 10% increase in earnings is reasonable. That gives an EPS of 18.8. Digitial look's brokers' forecast say 18.03. If it is somewhere around 18.5 - 19 that puts us on a forward PE of over 30; which is a bit high; and profit growth of around 10% hardly justifies the 40% share price we've had since last year's finals. I certainly won't be buying more at this price; but I'm happy to hold for the long term growth.
Hardboy
04 Jun 2017
Re: Closed above 600 TD,Interesting you mentioning RPC. In my hunt for a good priced acquisition I began to look at them in the last couple of weeks. As you say, with the recent acquisitions and increase in shares I was finding it very difficult to get a good handle on them, and I thought I'd take a much closer look at their next announcement, which, of course, is also this coming week. Like you I've been getting more international exposure of late, selling some mainly domestic businesses like Halfords, United Utilities, EasyJet. But it's interesting you mention switching from ITs to OEICs. I admit to being prejudiced, but it's always ITs for me. Since RDR things have begun to equate a bit, but I still believe OEICs/UTs are inherently less efficient than ITs and usually have higher fees. And for me UTs/OEICs have historically been designed to make money for the Financial Services Sector rather than its clients. I see your logic if the ITs are at a premium, but I'd still stick with ITs. I manage my Dad's investments as well as my own; and I recently had a good look at an OEIC he owned. I was drawn to look closer at it, as it was the only one of his investments not earning any income. It was JP Morgan Japanese Fund. It had done well for him in recent years, but I thought I must be able to find a Japanese IT that offers similar growth Plus a dividend. I did some homework, and found a couple, one of which was a JP Morgan Japanese IT. So I did a direct comparison of the 2 JPM funds. Their share price over 5 years was inseparable, their top 10 holdings were almost identical & surprise surprise it was the same management team, but for those 5 years the OEIC had yielded 0; while the IT had given a 2 -3 % yield over that time. The only explanation is the IT is more efficient and/or charges lower fees. I changed to the IT. I think I'll sit on my hands regarding purchases till Friday at least.
The Dutchman
03 Jun 2017
Re: Closed above 600 Interesting Hardboy, our experiences are similiar. I too originally got into this share at well under 100p, but sold some on the way up and most of my holding was bought in 2009 to 2013. It's either my largest or second largest holding, it competes in that regard with RPC. Unfortunately RPC has been hit by concerns wrt their very large number of acquisitions which some argue are value destroying, I don't entirely agree but for sure they make it difficult to see the wood for the trees. Thankfully PRV have made fewer much smaller acquisitions - very much stuck to their knitting !Like you I have cash waiting waiting to be invested, I have been investing in European, Global or F East Investment trusts for the last year or so, but I now find many are now trading at a premium, which in my view beyond a couple of % is madness. I must find time to identify where there is an OEIC which is managed by the same team and switch there.
Hardboy
03 Jun 2017
Re: Closed above 600 Meant to add - we should get a pre close trading update this week which should add some clarity to where we are, and how overpriced it actually is
Hardboy
03 Jun 2017
Re: Closed above 600 I don't think PRV is alone in looking expensive. I've got (for me) a lot of money burning a hole in my pocket wanting to be invested, but finding anything with good prospects reasonably priced is proving elusive.I've been in PRV since around 60p, as it has risen I have slowly reduced my holding so that I am in profit (without dividends) and it is still my largest single company holding. In that period it has consistently grown sales & profits & dividend, and I have thought it exceptionally well run; and it has kept shareholders well informed. For most of the time it has been overpriced on fundamentals, but the growth continues, so the pricing has always been justified. The yield looks poor at 0.6% but on my initial entry level it is giving me around 6% return. In many ways (although it has been sensible) I regret selling any of my shares on the way up. I'm happy to sit & hold as things stand. I recognise that the share price may oscillate, but as long as the overall trend is up, I'm sticking with them.
The Dutchman
02 Jun 2017
Closed above 600 Only last October I was noting that PRV had closed above £4, then in February above £5, barely 4 months later it's at £6. After each milestone we comment that it's results are good, it appears well run but are mildly surprised that trading results justify the P/E. I would normally add to a steady riser like this but with 10% of my wealth across all funds invested here I'm too exposed - but when to take some profits ?? Interesting that today's rise was on the back of a reasonable volume.DYOR.
The Dutchman
08 May 2017
Re: Price jump today There will most likely be a trading update on 30 May or thereabouts based on previous years patter
Hardboy
08 May 2017
Re: Price jump today No idea. No complaints, but I get a bit uneasy when there are big moves for no apparent reason. There are still about 6 weeks to the next set of results, so it's a little early to be rising in anticipation . The volumes a bit up on the average today, but only marginally, so it's not deliberate stake building.
The Dutchman
08 May 2017
Price jump today Up about 5% today, but I cant find any news to support this - anyone got any ideas?
Hardboy
11 Apr 2017
Trading Staement Another positive update - year started strongly, healthy order book - future looks good
Hardboy
04 Apr 2017
Salt filter News today says University of Manchester have developed a micro filter which can remove salt from sea water. There is more development work to do, but they would be looking for commercial partners to help develop and commercialise the technology. Maybe water is not a medium Porvair are normally associated with, but it sounds like it could offer a nice diversification.
Hardboy
20 Feb 2017
Re: Closed above 500 And still it goes up, without particularly high volumes. Often when a share reaches a milestone like 500p it struggles to push on as many holders have set that as a target sell price. But on it goes. I'm not complaining, but can not really see the reson for the strength. The finals were good, but hardly merit a PE of 30. Still onward & upward.
The Dutchman
17 Feb 2017
Re: Closed above 500 You mean a DPF (diesel particulate filter) as already fitted to diesel cars and requires replacement at large cost after 80k
.Maybe they can do a better one!
Hardboy
16 Feb 2017
Re: Closed above 500 I've been in this since 63p; and for most of the period I have thought it overpriced; but it just keeps on going up and up. The Stock Market in general is overpriced right now; and investors are looking for secure businesses with international exposure, with plenty of growth potential. Like you I would buy at this price at this time, but that's partly because it is already my largest single company investment, despite some sales on the way up. Maybe it is fair value of 2018 earnings, and this has usually been the case, that the share price at any time looks fair value 2 years later. But if you can invest in a share that keeps going up and up, to a certain extent , in the long term it does not matter when you get in. I'm not sure a takeover will come - if that were likely why has it not come already? I don't think there have been ay suggested predators during my time being invested; but it seems to be very well run, and is doing a good job as an independent. A nice filter to remove particulates from card diesel exhausts would be a nice little earner.
The Dutchman
16 Feb 2017
Closed above 500 It was only in October that I was noting that this had closed above 400 for the first time, the general consensus was that this was a good company but it struggled to justify its high PE. The subsequent full year results, though good were hardly spectacular, so though welcome it's difficult to see what the driver is for the subsequent 25% increase; maybe just that it is a small tightly run ( note V few exec directors, and long-term at that), with a global business. The takeover will come eventually and turn this from a five bagger into a ten bagger perhaps, but I'm not risking any more capital for now.DYOR
