The Dutchman
11 Sep 2017
Re: Price Drop There was a trading update last year towards the end of September.I might add a few tomorrow.Good Luck
pharmaspecialist
11 Sep 2017
Re: Price Drop Yes I would agree Hardboy that they are now fairly priced following the share price fall. I think they were over priced before as, although this is a good, solidly profitable company, it's ROCE and particularly the profit margins are closer to those expected from a commodity producer than from a company with a major competitive advantage. I would also point to the concerns previously raised by the company about cheaper producers of filters used in metal production as perhaps raising some worries amongst investors. I am inclined to play safe and wait until the next trading update (probably start of December) before deciding whether to buy, even though the price may have recover a bit if the trading update is OK.
Hardboy
11 Sep 2017
Price Drop It's now down 30% since the high 3 months ago. Maybe the 600+ price was anticipation of stonking interims rather than steady growth interims, and the drop after the interims would suggest this is true, but it's still down over 20% since the interims, which is ridiculous. The last trading statement we got from them was at the interims, and it said "Porvair has started 2017 well, with a healthy order book going into the second half. Organic growth continues to be driven by incremental new product introductions and capacity expansion. The recent acquisition, JGF, has started well. The Group has a strong balance sheet, a promising project pipeline and sees many opportunities for further growth ahead."That's all very positive, and nothing has changed (or the market would have been informed.) For most of the time I have followed Porvair they have been overpriced on fundamentals. Now they look much more fairly priced. Hopefully we will get a 3rd quarter update in the next week or so, which should reintroduce some confidence to the share price.
The Dutchman
26 Jul 2017
Re: Sold. You are right, they seem conservatively managed with small well-established core Exec team.
Hardboy
25 Jul 2017
Re: Sold. I've been following them for about 10 years, and since the financial crisis I've not known them release a nasty trading update, and invariably any guidance they give in advance of results is bettered by the actual figures.
The Dutchman
25 Jul 2017
Re: Sold. Let's hope it's only a downward re-rating back to something supportable and there isn't going to be some nasty trading update or similiar revelation. I've looked at their calendar on the Investor Relations part of their website and in previous years there was a trading update at the end of September, so a long way off.
Hardboy
25 Jul 2017
Re: Sold. And not badly timed it would appear. It's certainly been quite a rapid fall from grace. Over 600 at the start of June, and now below 500, with no significant news and no significant economic developments to affect them. At 600+ it certainly had got ahead of itself, with a lot of future growth built in, so maybe the fall is just a re rating to more normal valuations. So far I'm not too worried, there is far more growth of sales and profits to come here; which over the long term should be reflected in share price & dividend rises.
Heorot
10 Jul 2017
Sold. A bit too volatile for me. Bought in Feb @ 475, sold today @ 516 for a gross return of 9.11% including the dividend.. Not bad for 5 months. I usually buy for the long term but this share was always intended as a trading share. I won't be coming back as the spread is ridiculous now.
The Dutchman
27 Jun 2017
Re: Interims I agree, the results are solid but not sparkling! What I do like is that the results are presented in a straightforward manner with no attempt to hide behind terms such as "underlying earnings" nor scatter exceptional items across the P&L A/c. The only 'Alternative Performance Measure' ( as they now have to be called, is an attempt to illustrate what revenue would have been ignoring exchange rate movements and the large one-off contracts, but even here they limit it to Revenue and not Profit.They appear to be investing in the right areas, notwithstanding the initial losses in China, and so I'm sure we can look forward to a full year of growth and the same next year, but the rate needs to pick up! The shareholder presentation on their own website makes a good read.
Hardboy
27 Jun 2017
Re: Interims As the China Syndrome was the only real negative I suspect that's what's caused the drop today - that & maybe a bit of re rating with markets deciding it had got ahead of itself.
Hardboy
27 Jun 2017
Interims As usual an update on business reflects steady and positive progress. The one negative seems to be China where the new Metals Filtration facility is struggling to pay for itself; but it is early days there, and management have taken a long term view with the investment, so I trust them to get it right.
The Dutchman
06 Jun 2017
Re: IT's vs OEIC/UT's Maybe I should try and replicate Fundsmith, bur borrow against my house to gear up. As they have so few holdings and publish them monthly it should be quite possible --- would it mean I can sleep more easily?
Roger Baron
05 Jun 2017
Re: IT's vs OEIC/UT's I think the biggest factor in the out performance of ITs over OEICS is actually there ability to gear up. This of course also increases risk.
The Dutchman
05 Jun 2017
IT's vs OEIC/UT's Hardboy, I agree IT's have generally performed much better than UT's /OEIC's, but a lot of that in the past few years has been due to a narrowing of the discount to NAV . IT's have become better at introducing measures to control the discount through buybacks/ continuation votes etc. The problem is that the discount has been all but eliminated on many of them and I wont buy at a premium of more than 2-3%.I think that following the Retail Distribution Review ? the explicit charges have become much more consistent and there isn't a great deal in it now. However the UT/OEIC's still have issue of buying ans selling shares as funds flow in and out. In some cases that can work in our favour though as I have as the big and successful OEIC's ( Fundsmith) attract trillions and have to keep investing it, in the same companies forcing the share price up. Fundsmith and some very specialist overseas funds are the only OEIC's I invest in. The charges on these are probably about 0.25% higher than they need to be. I've written to Fundsmith to to point out that 1% AMC on £8 billion is a lot for a portfolio of only 25? stocks where they make a virtue out of buying and holding.
pied kingfisher
05 Jun 2017
Re: Trading Update Hardboy, note the Trading Update also says:"Progress towards commissioning large projects continues on track with very little revenue recognised compared with the prior period, as expected."
