Lupo di mare
30 Jun 2017
Re: Looking to buy in Km, it still looks to be a good buy to me - there's a nice yield and whether or not you wait until it goes xd before buying wouldn't matter much, depending on how important yield is against capital growth.There's some concern that utilities will suffer if/when interest rates rise; so that's a negative, or needs checking out, anyhow.On the plus side, it doesn't look as if ma d do g Jezzer will get into power for many years to come, if ever; so the likes of Goldman Sucks should be keen to continue adding water utilities to their portfolios.I like Pennon's expansion into EFW, and stuff, and once those current investments have been made PNN should be able to reduce debt - if circumstances dictate.Good luck from Lupo who knows stacks about salt water, but not much about the fresh stuff.
VIDEOMAN_
30 Jun 2017
Re: Looking to buy in In my view the sp has got ahead of itself On Thursday ex div sp nearly always drops equal to the divi which could take the sp to under £8
paul1945
30 Jun 2017
Re: Looking to buy in Is it Corbyn? all utilities are flat that is a big downgrade from Credit I wiil wait till after xd
Lupo di mare
30 Jun 2017
Re: Looking to buy in Wish I could help, km, but I'm equally puzzled. Got a small holding and considering doing same, but I see Credit Suisse has today lowered its target price to 710. I'll check further after porridge.
km1
30 Jun 2017
Looking to buy in Hi Folks,I have been looking at Pennon for a few months to buy in long term for the divi. However, while the sp has dropped to attractive levels I cannot see any reason why, particularly with ex divi next week the sp normally rises in the lead up to ex divi, any thoughts greatly appreciated.Regards.
Attrick
15 Jun 2017
Re: SP over £9 Bought back in at 885.75; 2.8% more shares, not spectacular but happy to be back in before ex div.
Lupo di mare
28 May 2017
Re: SP over £9 Attrick - "I still expect to buy back at a lower price later in the year."You might be able to buy it at a very, very low price in June if Jezzer gets in. Apparently the water companies are "dysfunctional".Just hope that the Tories get a big majority; not that I greatly admire the Tories, but the alternative would be just too awful.
Attrick
26 May 2017
Re: SP over £9 It is always hard to call the top.I still expect to buy back at a lower price later in the year.I will post how It works out.
Bill1703
26 May 2017
UK utilities: comparative valuation update Following the full set of FY results and a decent run for the sector, see below for a quick snapshot of the valuation picture (prices as at earlier this morning): ---------- ------- NG PNN SSE SVT UU Yield (act) 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% 3.3% 3.7% Yield (fwd) 4.2% 4.1% 6.1% 3.6% 3.8% Div cover 1.6x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x 1.2x P/E (act) 15.0x 19.9x 12.2x 19.9x 22.6x EV/EBITDA 11.2x 13.6x 9.2x 13.4x 13.8x ND/EBITDA 4.8x 5.6x 3.2x 6.6x 6.6xValuations look pretty full across the board in absolute terms, suggesting limited scope for further SP upside for the moment... though the stocks will doubtless do well enough in relative terms on any market setback(s). In relative terms, not much in it of course, but leaving aside SSE as a somewhat different animal (with a much higher proportion of its business in competitive - and more politically sensitive - markets), I would say NG screens as the most "attractive" at the moment, with UU the least compelling.SVT and PNN offer faster dividend growth currently, but reflected in lower yields (particularly SVT), while NG offers somewhat better dividend cover comfort. And NG is trading on a decent discount to the (eye-watering) multiples of the water stocks on both earnings and EBITDA.On balance sheet metrics, it's all relative of course, with sky-high leverage typical to the group... but NG is in a notably stronger position than the water comparators (particularly UU and SVT, up at 6.6x net debt to EBITDA). Such debt levels are clearly not a major concern near-term given current interest rates and the availability of cheap long term finance - but as (if?) and when bond yields gradually 'normalise' I can see this becoming much more of a differentiating issue, and possibly one of increasing and significant market concern.On a modest yield, paltry current divi growth and lowest cover level, UU looks the most exposed currently - particularly when you throw in the highest P/E and EV/EBITDA ratings in the sector and the sector-high leverage level.
The Revenge of Meredith Hunter
25 May 2017
Re: SP over £9 You sold a little early. It's gone up to 944p
Attrick
24 May 2017
SP over £9 I have sold my modest holding at 918 today as a hedge against volatile in the coming weeks.The reasoning is very basic - the chart rarely shows PNN holding above 900 for long. Looking to get back in around 865. If that happened before ex div on 6 August I would be very happy.Long term I believe in this company as a steady dividend play.
nk1999
16 May 2017
Deutsche From ADVFN:"Deutsche Bank downgraded its recommendation on shares of United Utilities and Severn Trent ahead of the 2019 price review.Despite further increases in the share prices of UK water stocks year-to-date, on the back of a decade-long bull run, that review would come incerasingly into focus towards the end of 2017, the broker said.Its analysts downgraded their view on United Utilities and Severn from 'buy' to 'hold', but left Pennon at a 'buy'.However, they raised their targets on the former of those two from 1,000p and 2,300p to 1,050p and 2,450p, respectively.Shares in United and Severn, Deutsche Bank said, also appeared to be at 'fair value'.As for Pennon, there might still be scope for the Exeter-based company to reassure on the outlook for Viridor.Key in terms of the upcoming review would be the new political backdrop, with the focus for the 2020-25 review expected to be on affordability."
In the dark yet again
03 May 2017
Re: GMWDA Lupo,Yeah, they want a cheaper contract, saying they can't afford this one..... but then is anyone else going to actually do it cheaper?[link] quite sure what to make of it but the biggest risk (IMO) is if GMWDA succeed and everyone else tries to follow suit. For me, I rather PNN didn't take the payoff (unless it's a stupid amount - which it won't be) and dig their heels in citing the fact they do actually have a contract. Might have to rollover a bit in the end but sit tight short-term.The other issue is that, if they were to be paid off in full, it would clearly demonstrate just how much juice companies (all of them, not just PNN) had ripped out of government budgets (both local and central) through PFI schemes.Regards,ITDYA unable to think of a single PFI scheme that made any long-term financial sense. Kept government capital spend within 'limits' but always dreadful value for the tax payer.
Lupo di mare
03 May 2017
GMWDA How is this going to play out!?GM don't want to recycle? Going to put it all into landfill? Obviously not; so what's the solution? Presumably they just want to enter a new cheaper (for GM) agreement and are willing to pay upfront for that.Well it's still got to be profitable for PNN, or there'll be no more recycling in GM - I suppose.
Bill1703
20 Jan 2017
Re: 5% drop... "Similarly I cannot possibly imagine that CS or other bank will print an analysis of a stock with a downgrade or upgrade without first having circulated it amongst all the important clients... And not just circulated it but consult with the large clients and get them to move in/out of large positions... Therefore by the time you read an analysts report the large clients have already had it and acted on it."and"When you see an analyst downgrading a stock consistently, eg Liberum Capital and PSON, I would not mind betting their proxies have shorts on."Really Akis?!? I don't mind that many on here have only limited understanding of how brokers operate, and the significant regulatory and compliance constraints they operate under. I also know that many simply don't want to hear it. Fair enough... But for the benefit of anyone who is at all interested in the reality rather than conspiracy theories, I can assure you that in each case, the suggestions above are more or less 100% unfounded! Maybe less so back in the 1970s... But for any professional active in the broking industry today, or at any time in the past couple of decades, they would merely laugh at the suggestion (though I suspect one or two might be heard to mutter a quiet "if only...!"?)That's not to say that there isn't still the odd case of something similar from time to time... Go online and look up the (various) cases of recent successful insider trading prosecutions, and what the participants are doing now (clue - the answer being, "time... at Her Majesty's pleasure", and not just a few months in most cases). And sure, there might be the odd individual who has got away with it thus far... but trust me, of the people I know in the industry (a very substantial number overall), for easily 99%+ of them, it just isn't worth the risk in even contemplating it!
