Premier Oil Live Discussion

Beatley 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! I don’t know the mechanics of it all, but what’s stopping the people they’ve borrowed the share from asking for it back? If I’d lent my shares to someone that had a huge MTM loss, I’d be getting worried they wouldn’t have the funds to buy them all back. Sold some of mine anyway, locking in a 100% gain is never a bad idea

Ripley94 07 Jan 2020

Down by PMO… XXXX Sliced that tranche today when i saw up 17% on the day. @ 117p

lots_of_sense 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! They only have 140m shares to buy !

lots_of_sense 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Yes, now sitting at -$93m MTM ! Feel the burn… I’ve let some go today but now am happy to hold onto the rest and see where the ride takes us. If ARCM are forced into the market as the short share owners want to sell…will be interesting times indeed…

Beatley 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Can you imagine having the biggest short position in Europe and seeing the price go up 17% on a single and that’s even before you’ve started closing. As you say, today is a good day. I’ve asked IR if shareholders will be able to take part in the placing, that’s my only concern out of all this, especially if the placing was say half of the $500m.

lots_of_sense 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Indeed, bit of a surprise on a few fronts. Buying assets as I think you have said before in the UK makes sense given the tax losses they have available and saying they have the equity raise fully supported is another good thing. Poor old ARCM, now sitting on a negative MTM of -$85m on their short…must be hurting vs the gains on the $380m debt and surely no other hedge funds would decide to make them squeal ? Plus the other ones with another ~4%. Nice to see ARCM put out a release when previously silent ! We are only thinking of all the stakeholders, LOL, they are only thinking of their companies position and their bonuses… Anyway, happy day today atleast !

Beatley 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Shows how much I know, share price up 14% lol. Market already pricing the 100k barrels a day and not concerned with unknown dilution bit? Quite a surprise to me, but happy anyway. Will shave a few off this morning, rights issue likely to be bigger than I anticipated so need to free up cash.

Beatley 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! We’ll I didn’t have to wait long for details of the hedging. Lots of information but at first glance the word placing is somewhat concerning. Is that the get out of jail card for ARCM at the expense of diluting ordinary shareholders?! Defo going to drop today, how much, who knows.

Beatley 07 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! As a side note, I’ll also be keen to see what they’ve done with the hedging position. Given that gas prices are still horrible, locking in the current forward curve is key to ensuring H1 revenues are robust.

Beatley 06 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! New debt holders are absolutely critical, we can’t be put in situation where a perfectly viable business is being held to ransom, when anyone buying the debt knew the maturities would have to be extended. A proper RBL and amortisation profile needs to be sorted out, although I doubt that can be done by mid-year which is when the debt becomes current. Personally, I’m not overly fussed about an equity raise, I’ve always thought we’d do one anyway when the right assets came a long, so for me it’ll just be doing it ahead of time. Moreover, the biggest the thing that’s been holding the share price back is the debt concerns, take them away and the share price should reflect the improved balance sheet anyway. Let see what Thursday brings, but it would be good to get some colour on what’s actually happening.

lots_of_sense 06 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Thanks for the update Beatley, yes I like how non specific it was regarding the debt sale by Barclays and that it went to hedge funds including ARCM but no details of how much of the $80m it was to them. Must be hurting having that £45.5 m (~$60m) MTM loss currently ! I wonder what the costs of borrowing PMO shares is currently with so much out on loan and the Middle East looking a little tense ? My other thought is with the FCF available between now and May 21, if they can get the other bondholders or new banks on board to extend and/or maybe increase, can’t they pay off the ARCM bonds on maturity ? Surely, non of the Directors of PMO will not want to willingly do an equity raise or cave in to this pressure when the company is looking in alot stronger position than a few years ago. I guess we might hear more on Thursday at the Update.

Beatley 05 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! You do have to laugh at some of the nonsense in the article, if Premier raised $600m from a rights issue, by my reckoning net debt would be just $700m-$800m at year end, or less than 1xEBITDA. However, If ARCM do get their way and we are forced to raise new cash then I reckon it’ll be about $300m, or maybe the board will find a suitable acquisition to make any equity raise easier to stomach for investors. “One US lending source told The Telegraph that Premier will need to raise between $800m and $1bn through asset sales and a rights issue – suggesting that they would require up to $600m to be raised through a combination of a rights issue and/or further asset sales.”

Beatley 05 Jan 2020

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! The Telegraph Premier Oil hires Rothschild in £2bn debt battle with lenders PREMIER Oil has hired investment bankers from Rothschild as a battle with lenders owed more than $2. Interesting development if true, ARCM and Co are reported to have been buying up further debt in the secondary market to strengthen their bargaining position. Thinking from ARCM’s point of view, it would make sense. If you held the biggest short position in Europe, would you capitulate on the position and start buying the stock back leading to a massive short squeeze?! Or would you dig in, strengthen your position and force Premier to go down the new equity route?! Maybe the article is nonsense, and just timely placed to ensure the share price doesn’t get away from them, particularly with recent geopolitical events. The very fact I’m posting about it suggests it would be doing its job, sowing doubts in investors minds, especially those that are thinking of buying or holders that have big percentage gains that might decide to lock in their profits. I will ask IR if there’s any truth in the article and post back when I get a response.

Diesel 16 Dec 2019

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Exactly Beatley, as far as I know AMRC bought the bonds on the secondhand market & were not the original lenders. We know that pmo are in a much stronger position when it comes to refinancing, if we agree that’s the base case, then lending will be easier & cheaper this time around. A quick glance at the sp this morning, despite the scare tactics of the Telegraph article I think shows that the pi’s get it & I would hope the sophistication of the City would see PMO’s strengths. Of course it would have made sense to have rolled over the existing bonds, but raising new bonds to buy out the old should be bread & butter for the city.

Beatley 16 Dec 2019

Highest short interest in FTSE 250 according to Sunday Times! Hi Diesel, the big inaccuracy within the article was the headline of the debt holders calling for the breakup of the company, or in other words more asset sales. PMO have quashed that rumour, which didn’t make much sense anyway given the tax loss position in which most of the assets operate within. Fully appreciate that Premier want to get the refinancing done by end of Q1, but I am still struggling with how we end up with a favourable outcome from a shareholders perspective. If these vulture hedge funds hold 40% of the debt and are working together, how do we get anything through that is favourable to the equity and detrimental to ARCM’s position? If the share price rises, does that just strengthen their resolve as the loss from the short gets bigger? The big concern from ARCM’s perspective would be a new lending group coming in, which would allow us to pay back the debt at maturity as we move to the new facilities, in that scenario we really would get some fireworks. What are your own expectations? As to be quite honest, I really don’t have a clue.