Armageddon
10 Jun 2019
Quiet on here Il simplify it . A company 6 months ago release great financials. Great ratios. Cashlfows. Etc. Looks good. But today, some fund with more info than us decides, ’ this next financial release wont look so rosy’. And as ever in SP, when money talks, books walk. So price starts tanking down 25% over five months, and most of the public cant understand why… until the next release… That’s maybe simplifying it too much but you get the gist. As for Fundamentals, they do have some info worth knowing. Not much but some. Maybe you should ask yourself why a trader here hasn’t looked at the PMO books? Maybe the related markets told me enough? And company books can’t halt that
Armageddon
10 Jun 2019
Quiet on here Fundamentals. Here is the funny bit. Most people class past technical data as a buy meaningless. Yet all known fundamentals are past data too. Anything known is past. So, technical or fundamental, we try to green future prices from past data. But here is the problem Funds are trading future fundadamental speculation. The unknowns to us. Maybe better to speculate their speculation?
Armageddon
10 Jun 2019
Quiet on here Beatley: Also, if you haven’t looked at the fundamentals, then maybe it’s best not to comment on a thread that’s talking about them. Unfortunately it’s fundamentals that mislead most. Example buyers here at 102-108p in recent past etc. An obvious short
Beatley
10 Jun 2019
Quiet on here Gosh you’re right, and there was me thinking what a wrote on a stock forum would influence the company in some way Moreover, if you haven’t looked at the fundamentals, then maybe it’s best not to comment on a thread that’s talking about them.
Armageddon
09 Jun 2019
Quiet on here Short interest went from 15% to 0% early 2018. This was somewhat reflected in price. From around mid 2018 to present day it’s increased from 0% to over 3%. This has also been reflected in price. On a scale of both periods… reckon the bears have it right? 're price movement to short interest in both periods? Maybe if you look at short interest in a few from the sector, is it reflecting crude outlook?
Armageddon
09 Jun 2019
Quiet on here What do the large and medium sized funds think? That’s what matters
Beatley
09 Jun 2019
Some shale restraint........finally? Continental Resources look to be the first company that are finally showing some restraint and giving their shareholders a reasonable level of return, the new dividend yield is small at 0.5% but the $1bln buyback over the next 18 months is certainly notable for a company with $14bln market cap. Unsurprisingly investors loved it, the share stopped its free fall and went up 15% on the day. Who would have thought investors liked getting something for holding the stock rather than a declining share price. The comment below is taken from their release: “Should market conditions warrant, the Company could prioritize further share repurchases in lieu of production growth†[link] I believe they’ll be the first of a few bigger shale players to do the same, PXD and EOG will be the likely candidates in my opinion. I’ve mentioned EOG’s as one of the worst offenders before, they’re a $50bln company that have had a declining share price for years. They’re not a tinpot operation, they have options but have chosen to prioritise production growth over shareholder returns. They do have a token dividend, but with a yield of around 1% I think they’ll struggle to appease their investors after the news from Continental, the half year results and investor presentations will be very interesting. Time will tell if this becomes a common theme, but with the smaller shale players really struggling, a change in policy to investor returns over production growth could change shale growth projections significantly.
Beatley
09 Jun 2019
Quiet on here Zama news over the next couple of weeks might spark a little bit of interest, although I doubt it’ll do much for the share price. The inventory builds in the U.S. and Trump taking on the world has certainly put a damper on a summer oil price rally, well for now at least. Worryingly, there’s also some horrible PMI data out there which could have a material impact on oil demand growth. Hopefully the final Zama appraisal well come in as expected and Premier put a big fat ‘For Sale’ sign up on the asset. Obviously we wanted to sell it cheap and I’m not going to pretend to know what we might get for it, but $400m+ would be a massive help in deleveraging the balance sheet, particularly when you look at our debt profile. Investor relations have confirmed that following payback of the ‘super senior debt’ we should be in a position to start paying back the expensive senior notes come the start of next year, so given that’s around $500m with average interest cost of 9%, a Zama sale and a good Q1 2020 might be able to wipe out the full lot, which would give us a massive saving each year in terms of finance costs, especially when added to savings of the $300m of debt we’ll pay down this year. I’m sure the board are looking at all the options, but should Sea-Lion be giving the green light this is definitely my preferred option. Any thoughts?
Armageddon
05 Jun 2019
3 weeks ago No point being angry about somebody else being right. Just short it and join the fun. Better
Diesel
01 Jun 2019
3 weeks ago Gk, Andyp or pop or whatever your calling yourself today. For the record I try not to predict prices, I don’t have a crystal ball, but yes rightly or wrongly I’m long on PMO. unsurprisingly given what’s happened to poo last month I’m a bit down on my current holding but can continue my position as long as I want to. In life I try to steer away from people I consider to be drains or give of negative energy, sorry Andy, although I don’t know you personally I still put you in that camp & rather than continue this personal tit for tat communication, which adds nothing to this board, regardless of what you post here, this is my final word to you. All the best mate & enjoy your life. End.
gk10
31 May 2019
3 weeks ago Diesel, For somebody who claims not to post much you are doing a great job of hiding that fact. Have a read back through this thread and then hang your head in shame. You have missed the target so many times that some may now conclude you are the poster not to be trusted. Good luck on Monday.i Cocka, Sweet dreams babe!
Diesel
31 May 2019
3 weeks ago I think arma, you think a bit too deep. No doubt a deal would be a big positive, but there again if the market tanks further the fed will step upto the plate. As an aside I think your smart not shorting HUR, regardless of poo big news expected next week.(which I think will be massive). Have a good weekend.
Armageddon
30 May 2019
3 weeks ago Do you know diesel, I have a slightly weird take on the trade war now. I think it’s got to a stage Where, apart from a few hours reaction, the city would see any deal struck as a signal that both nations are in bearish view of the globe. And would sink markets further.
Armageddon
30 May 2019
3 weeks ago I was short Diesel. Not stopped out but wasn’t far off to be fair.
Diesel
30 May 2019
3 weeks ago See you’ve changed your name last call. I don’t post much & not sure many investors hang around here . Hope you weren’t short on HUR today! but poo & macros looking sickly. From my position hope the Saudis tighten further… only time will tell. Best
