Plus500 Live Discussion

rogerhorton 12 Feb 2020

Trading update today PLUS…improving after 2nd half performance… [link] Share Buy Back prog: [link] Plus500 Ltd PLUS Liberum CapitalBuy953.50910.801,000.00-Reiterates SP target 1,000

marktime1231 12 Apr 2019

Odey and Plus Rubbish! Plus have yet again been hedge trading positions against its own clients, and lost 28M of our profits doing so in Q1. Even before that “adjustment” trading revenue of 82M was 20% below expectation. Subdued, clearly incompetent as traders themselves and profligate with our money. Gambling it away in fact. I still do not forgive them for disguising the hedge trading it was doing while pretending it was all driven by transaction fees and “in the margin”. I would like to say something impolite to the board and executive. A shame they didn’t mention cash conversion or net cash position. So, hard to tell what this means but it looks like the business did 4 years ago. Potentially still highly profitable and cash generative provided they are not wasting all the cash on acquiring a few new clients. As with my other disasters I remain deeply in the doodoo hoping against all the signs that something will lift us back up, instead of cutting my losses.

Ripley94 12 Apr 2019

Odey and Plus PLUS… XXXX Hi marktime What is your view today down 25% trades first thing below 400p .

marktime1231 12 Mar 2019

Odey and Plus OK so in answer to my own question I do not think Odey are making a move, just trading really big positions while the stock is jumping around several % on a daily basis. Can’t be very comfortable for Plus though, having an investor bigger than you are with a massive position and playing around with it like a toy. So much for welcoming institutional investors as a FTSE250 company. Not feeling a lot of sympathy with the exec though after what stinks of a deliberately misleading situation where they failed to reveal the impact of trading on the p/l in 2017 accounts and omitted that crucial info ahead of 2018 main market listing. Allowing us all to believe (except of course for Dan “this is too good to be true” at FT Alpha) that revenue was all transparently from transaction fees and marginal gains in the spread. Surprised heads have not rolled, given this “mistake” by execs, auditor and listing sponsor has caused the share price to halve. Is Lady Penelope just a puppet chariwoman then or does she owe it shareholders to act?

marktime1231 04 Mar 2019

Odey and Plus Odey has now built up a stake in Plus500 approaching 20%, about half in stock and half in CFD. What does this mean? The only other group buying stock at the moment is Plus500 itself.

marktime1231 14 Feb 2019

The next chapter Thank you. My forecast for 2018 was quite close then, if anything a tad conservative, the outcome beat every analyst forecast. Q4 revenues of $145M followed Q3 revenues of $100M … that sort of performance “momentum” as heralded by the CEO carried into 2019 would achieve market expectation of $450-$500M revenues. I do not, therefore, understand why the CEO has warned of “materially lower” performance. No-one has unpicked the results to explain to me what the problem is … the idea has been put about that a large number of existing customers need to be discounted because they have lost so much money gambling on volatile markets. We didn’t get any hint of year to date numbers. A big disappointment was that there was no special dividend and no buy back, despite a large cash pile at year end, more than enough to cover basic dividend, tax bill and its marketing cost for 2019. We got all the jam in the interim, I was hoping for a generous final too. So, what has boshed the sp is the warning of “lower” revenue and “materially lower” profit than expectation and left us to guess what it means. We are used to Plus outperforming, so are they just setting a low bar? Or is a huge effort required to shore up business activity because private punters are shedding as a result of ESMA and gambling losses? And yet didn’t the results point to a huge sum of client money on deposit, something like $1.3B, so er um … Accepting that a sp of £25 is now off the table, two brokers are saying around £18. If we drop to £9 just because everyone has turned gloomy and unsure of what the real outlook is, Q1s might be weak, then on a reduced eps forecast … my figures … of $1.30 (from $1.80) that would be an extreme bargain. I am not saying you might not be right, Plus has discounted its real value by 50% for most of its recent history. A few “brave” shorters saw this shock outlook coming, some were also bluffed by positive updates and quit before the 12 Feb, others have now settled. The one sure this has further to go DE Shaw has increased its short, which is worrying because they are a notably successful hedger. Me, I know nothing. Except there is a big hole.

jghosh56 14 Feb 2019

Trading update today Stay away form crypto. Regulatory authorities are getting stricter and stricter on crypto trading,and it’ll hurt companies like plus500

jghosh56 14 Feb 2019

The next chapter Mark mate, I’m afraid your last paragraph was spot on… The insider shorters knew the previous reports were misleading… The company continually saying they were going to beat earnings forcasts. They led everyone down the garden path, and the shorters are making big money out of a (like you say) ‘too good to be true’ business. I think this stock is unfortunately heading for around 900p

marktime1231 08 Feb 2019

The next chapter So 2018 revenues to end of Q3 we already $565.6M, and according to analysis of “ahead of expectations” updates since then the broker Liberum says Q4 target revenues of $100M had likely been achieved by 20 November … hence my forecast $650-700M looks pretty safe would you say? How that translates into earnings is harder to say, there will have been costs involved in transferring to the main market etc, but $450M-$500M is quite credible, and operating cash flow >$350M+ for the year. The big (only) drag is high Israel tax rate - 25% corporate and another 25% withheld on divdends, strong argument for a strategic review. Otherwise awash. Spare a thought then for Canaccord Genuity, who after Q3 results picked on the setback in customer numbers growth while overlooking that it is market volatility which primarily drives P500’s business. They warned SELL when the sp was at 12.xx. Maybe Canaccord are right to be cautious in terms of outlook for 2019 and 2020 … in quiet market trading revenues might only be $100M per quarter. But Q4 indications are that even after ESMA anchors on private investors and slower progress in acquiring new customers, in periods of market volatility the business bubbles up to … well my guess is $165M+ quarterly revenues, in order for the board to have been so confidently “ahead” by 20 Nov and a further “ahead” on “strong momentum” announced 27 Dec. Shall we spare a thought for the shorters who have built up to 12.5% most of that has been since August 2018? Do they think the reported numbers are false, that the board are lying … or is it just another case of taking against a “too good to be true” business they don’t really understand like FT Alphaville’s investigative rucker Dan McCrum did three years ago. Tuesday then.

freedom-thirty5 08 Feb 2019

The next chapter Full year results Tuesday 12/2/19 I believe.

freedom-thirty5 08 Feb 2019

Plus500 Full Year Results: Tuesday 12 Feb [link]

marktime1231 01 Feb 2019

The next chapter Well … we will find out in the next couple of weeks. So exciting. Bubbling up this morning, so pleased because after a deep breath at New Year I ditched some pedestrian income stocks and doubled up at 14.xx hoping for a surge ahead of results and another one when they announce the bumper dividend. I cannot understand the shorters here, performance worthy of £18 a share was already in the bag nine months ago. A stutter, on ESMA hitting harder than foretold, has been followed by 3 insistent positive “higher than expectation” updates. Volatility has trumped any loss of momentum from the restriction on private investors. So I am still betting on $450M+ net earnings. We might not get £30 a share so soon, given the weight of negative sentiment, but I do expect Plus to hit £25 when they announce yet another £1+ dividend (after tax). Anyone care to join the fun as the shorters get toasted?

Teemo01 25 Aug 2018

I'm hoping that the shares that I bought before going Ex Dive will at some point bounce back above what I paid for them, other wise its beans and burger, not steak!

mememe 06 Aug 2018

PLUS UPGRADE.......................... @Lastemporer, has your broker paid the dividend which was due on 23rd July to your account? Mine hasn’t

Lastemporer 02 Jul 2018

PLUS UPGRADE.......................... Cracking update again here. ( Also great that 2nd quarter ended and they report so fast, just shows how well run the company is, at least in that aspect.) Price now at 1750, hopefully on to it’s next step up. One share that thrives from bitcoin and volatility.