Photo-Me International Live Discussion

NoQuestionMarks 26 Apr 2019

Oversold? More diversification can only be good for us. The orange juice machines look classy and seem like they are built to last with little that can go wrong. If we can roll them out across Europe, it will be another string to our Bow(man) If we meet the £42m PBT forecast and have continued to ramp up our laundry roll out at 80+ per month I’ll be a happy bunny. For now I’ll hold and reinvest the divvy in May. Good luck. nqm

Bowman 25 Apr 2019

Oversold? I also had hoped for a recovery towards 100p+, but the profit warning a few days ago seemed to have knocked that back. However, today’s acquisition news does appear to have been well received. The BoD do seem to be working hard to get PHTM back on track, so I hope the diversification efforts are “fruitful”, although I have not sufficient confidence to add to my holding, although I am prepared to hold and wait for the annual results in July. phtm.png1204x906 65.7 KB

NoQuestionMarks 13 Dec 2018

Oversold? I am hoping for a recovery to around 100p, as long as there is no further bad news between now and year end that should be achievable. If full year guidance is met I could see 120p+, which from where we are would be a 25% profit, when you add the divi it’s more like 30%. Brexit is the known Unknown… If our MP’s continue to play politics and we end up leaving with no deal all sense goes out the window. Keeping plenty of cash on the sidelines for any eventuality but couldn’t resist the 82p offered yesterday.

Bowman 12 Dec 2018

Oversold? The drop since the peak in January has been fairly precipitous, and this drop I believe has been amplified by the very nervous investment environment we have experienced this year. This is now well and truly in the speculative category, and I believe that there is some scope for a re-rating with 120-130 range in mind. Any further recovery towards this year’s peak levels will take quite some time to achieve, unless there is a very marked change in outlook, which I am doubtful will materialise. phtm chart.png2812x2054 266 KB

NoQuestionMarks 12 Dec 2018

Oversold? Looking very cheap now, Yesterday’s results, in my opinion, were loaded with caveats despite the reiterance of the full year guidance for £44m profit before tax. However, a dividend yield of 9% and P/E ratio around 9x was too tempting for me. Not without risk, PHTM have been written off many times before, but on every occasion they have defied the ‘experts’ BlockquoteSerge Crasnianski, CEO, said: "In the last six months, the expansion of Laundry operations and deployment of photobooth identification solutions continued in line with our plan. Revolution Laundry units in operation and revenue from these machines were up 30.4% and 28.5% respectively in H1 2019. In additional we continue to diversify our identification business offering. “The Board expects to meet its previously stated guidance for FY 2019, with profit before tax of £44 million, net of restructuring costs in Japan and excluding movements in the value of the Group’s investment in Max Sight Holdings. The Group’s ability to meet guidance remains subject to the economic environment, foreign exchange movements and consumer sentiment, which could affect performance.”

Bowman 14 Sep 2018

PHTM - Disposal The nice profit [click to view] from their recent disposal should bolster their Balance Sheet somewhat.

BuySel 01 Jun 2018

Ready to go better Selected on the "UPS" this morning........."Looks ready to bounce after the sharp fall a couple days ago, there is volume today and rising the right conditions for the bounce." 2 hours trading an almost the same VOLUME as full day yesterday2 month Chart with volume[link]

IOMINVESTCOM 01 Jun 2018

Progressive Equity Research Trading UpdatePhoto-Me has issued a trading update ahead of the publication of fullyear results in July. The Group expectations for turnover and PBT forFY2018E are in-line with our forecast. The statement does, however,highlight difficulties in trading in Photo ID in Japan which will resultin a lowering of our PBT forecast for FY2019E to £44m from £53m. Theboard has taken steps to resolve the issues and expects the JapanesePhoto ID business to return to profitability following the restructuringin FY2019E.▪ Revenues for FY2018E are expected to grow at approximately 6% on aconstant currency basis, which is in-line with our expectations. PBT isalso expected to be in-line with our forecast of £50.2m for FY2018E.This includes restructuring cost associated with the UK Retail businessof £2.6m, a gain on disposal of the head office of £2.4m and a gain oninvestments of £3.7m.▪ The Photo ID business, except for Japan, continues to perform in linewith previous expectations. In Japan there have been difficulties due tooversupply in the market, meaning declining market share and aresultant reduction in average revenue per machine as well as upwardpressure on commissions payable. The Board intends to re-structurethe Japanese business to facilitate a return to profitability. For FY2019Ewe are lowering our forecast trading PBT for Japan by £5m andanticipate a restructuring cost of £4m.▪ The Laundry business continues its expansion and remains a keygrowth driver. Revenue from Laundry operations in FY2018E grew 49%to £32.3m. Following relocation to Poland, an increase in manufacturingcapacity will fuel an acceleration in the deployment of machines.▪ Post year-end the Group acquired La Wash Group, a leading Spanishlaundry provider, for €4.75m. La Wash Group had turnover of €3.7m forthe year ended 31 December 2017 and corresponding PBT of €0.8m.This acquisition highlights the Group’s commitment to makingcomplimentary bolt-on Laundry acquisitions.▪ Photo-Me Retail in the UK has been successfully restructured to provideunattended digital printing kiosk services. This will boost the profitabilityof the UK digital printing business with an associated re-structuring costof £2.6m in FY2018E.▪ Although the Board has made no final decision, it expects to maintainthe Group’s current dividend policyTrading UpdateExcept for the Japanese Photo ID business (see below), all areas performed in line withour expectations. Turnover for FY2018E is expected to grow by 6% on a constantcurrency basis or 7% on an absolute basis. PBT for FY2018E is expected to be broadlyin line with market expectations. We forecast PBT for FY2018E of £50.2m.Photo IdentificationExcluding Japan, the photo identification business continued to perform well. The UKroll-out of encrypted passport photo ID upload began in December 2017. the yearend, 2200 photobooths had been converted to provide direct and secure transmission ifID photos and data to HMPO. The Group is therefore well positioned to take advantageof the introduction of new UK passports.This technology continues to be deployed in France and Ireland and the Group is alsoin discussions with the Dutch government about its introduction in the Netherlands.LaundryLaundry continues to be a key growth driver with revenue for FY2018E expected toincrease by 49% to £32.3m.Manufacturing capacity of the Revolution laundry machines increased following therelocation of production facilities to a new factory in Poland. This capacity increase willenable an acceleration of the roll-out programme in the longer term.In May 2018, the Group acquired La Wash Group, a laundry services group. Theacquisition cost was €4.75m, 1.3x FY2017 revenue. During that year the business hadPBT of €0.8m. This acquisition shows Photo-Me’s commitment to identifying valuablestrategic bolt-on laundry acquisitions to

IOMINVESTCOM 31 May 2018

Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 160p. Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 160p.

schwee 31 May 2018

Re: news Numberbiter,Your analysis is spot on, though I would say that it will not be a 100% cash business, as many punters will pay with their cards. So trade debtors will arise from amounts owed by Visa, MasterCard etc. How much will depend on the deal PHTM has struck with these rip off artists.PHTM is one of those companies that will have to reinvent itself for the digital age, otherwise it wiil be a slow death by Chinese torture.

IOMINVESTCOM 30 May 2018

Paul Scott's view Photo-Me International (LONHTM)Share price: 115.8p (down 23.5% today)No. shares: 377.5mMarket cap: £437.1mTrading updatePhoto-Me (PHTM.L), the instant-service equipment group, announces the following trading update for the year ended 30 April 2018, ahead of its full year results which will be published on Tuesday 10 July 2018, and provides guidance for the year ending 30 April 2019.This is a tricky one, as the last time I looked at PHTM was in Dec 2012!Thankfully, to get me up to speed, there's a terrific article on Stockopedia from the excellent blogger (and thoroughly good egg) Damian Cannon, here.Graham wrote about PHTM's in-line interim results, here on 11 Dec 2017. The share price has come down 36% since then.Year-ended 30 April 2018 - broadly in line;For the financial year ended 30 April 2018, the Board expects the Group will achieve turnover growth of approximately 6% versus the prior year on a constant currency basis, with the Group's profit before tax expected to be broadly in line with market expectations, including a one-off investment gain of £3.7 million relating to the Group's shareholding in Max Sight Group Holdings Limited.It's not clear from this whether market expectations also include the one-off investment gain? Usually analysts strip out any one-offs like that, which implies that the underlying profit might have missed expectations? I've just found a broker update on Research Tree, which is very helpful, which seems to confirm that the underlying profit did miss forecast.The announcement does not provide a footnote telling us what market expectations are, which is unhelpful.Valuation - underlying earnings for 04/2018 are apparently c.9p. So at today's reduced share price of 115.8p, that gives a PER of 12.9 - probably about right for a business that has disappointed on growth.Forecasts - for year ending 04/2019 have been reduced about 15% today, to 9.2p - essentially flat against 04/2018.Net cash - is c.£26m as at 30 April 2018.Other points - I won't go through all the narrative today, but the main issue seems to be the "very difficult" Japanese market for photo ID booths. Dividends - the yield is now very high, but also only just covered by earnings;Although no final decision has yet been made, the Board currently expects that it will maintain the Group's existing dividend policy at the full year results.That's clearly worded so as to provide wiggle room to cut the divis in future, if necessary.Therefore I think investors should assume that the divis might be cut in future. Maybe they won't, we don't know at this stage. The group is nicely cash generative, so it could be possible to hold the divis. There's not likely to be much growth though.My opinion - I'm sure some readers know the company better than I do, so are better placed to judge it. My main concern with this company is how much longer photo booths are likely to survive? It seems to me virtually inevitable that selfies on smart phones, with a direct download to the relevant authority, would sooner or later make photo booths redundant.PHTM is trying to expand into other areas (e.g. laundry machines). For me though, if the core photo booth business is probably in structural decline, then I wouldn't want to invest unless the share price was crazily cheap - so a PER of 5 or less.It's not for me. This could be a value trap in the long term, I suspect.

stocks01 30 May 2018

Re: news Have held this shares for a good few years since it was tipped in SCSW at around 40p.I think in fact they recommended it at around 20p but it took me a little while to get on board.Since then I have traded in it quite regularly. I have taken some profits & bought some more from time to time but have always retained(by my modest standards) a significant holding & it has been a good reliable friend with decent dividends as well.Only last week I looked at share price weakness & was contemplating topping up but my general inefficiency & inertia when it comes to these things meant thankfully I hadn't got around to it.Anyway, today I have decided finally to sell the lot. Still a good profit & I wish continuing shareholders well but I don't like the vagueness in the statement. Also I have been reading a bit in past year or two about whether photo booths have a long term future & can see why logically this might not be the case. Finally, the lesson of history in my experience is that the first profit warning is generally not the last. Will keep watching though & might consider buying back in due course depending on news flow.

numberbiter 30 May 2018

Re: news The problem with this company is that everything it communicates is opaque. Having analysed the full year accounts, the only thing that put me off (price at date of analysis was 183.5p and based on growth of 12% (annualised over four years) my calculated price was 175p) was that a cash business should not have debtors and there was no explanation what these were.At 31/10/17 debtors of £25 million amounted to 37 days. Then we have inventories streadily going up from 29 days to 49 days without any explanation. At this date they had net cash of £47 million, but still paid £21,000 interest. Why, especially when the the three and a half years before then they had received interest?The latest stock exchange announcement is as clear as mud. It says that growth between 2017 and 2018 will be 6% and that 2019 profits will be the same, but will exclude a one off £4 million sale and the proceeds from the sale of the Group's Head Office buildings. Why sell head office buildings when you have plenty of cash?In six months cash has reduced from £47 million to a forecast (based on the latest statement) of £26 million.. They say that profits will meet market expectations, but no number is quoted. They say cash will be reduced because of capital expenditure, but such capital expenditure is not growing profits, as 2019 is forecast to be lower than 2018, given exceptional gains in 2018 will not be repeated. This will put annual growth over time to between 4% and 5% compared with the previous 12%. This would explain the fall to the current price to some extent. However, we know that the market does not like 'uncertainty', but this is what it has got with the company's opaque reporting.I will look at this company again when the full annual accounts are published in July. Based on what we know now, my advice would be to hold but NOT to buy.

Doggedly persevering 30 May 2018

Re: news Seems now that some sellers knew about the ‘profit warning’ a good week ago. That stinks.Other than Japan though, everything is flat or slightly improved from last year.-33% seems a massive overreaction though. Unless it’s a reaction against management incompetence?Too late to sell now so I’ll hang on in there.

Grill Bimsie 30 May 2018

Re: news Thanks tejo for your post, you have saved me £thousands!!Read your post on Friday, and this prompted me to look at the chart over the bank holiday weekend. Consequently sold out first thing Tuesday @ 153p, ahead of today's profit warning.Cheers,