bamboozled
17 Sep 2015
Re: Sentiment Gawd, should have set a stop loss on this one,too late now. Markets seem to love doing these big drops.Do I wait for signs of a turnaround in company fortunes/mkt sentiment to add or buy more now. Answers on a postcard.........
Omaha man
17 Sep 2015
Remuneration In the light of these poor figures and the company now deciding that what it should be doing is 'making sure its business is run well' to paraphrase the words of the announcement, I trust that Laurence Bain will not be walking off with any severance payment (he earned £900,000 lat year) and there will be no bonuses paid to any of the directors who as recently as the report and acocunts in May were telling us how well positioned the business was to improve its profitability.The market hates this type of story, but I would echo the views of others on the board that the fall is probably overdone. That said I think you might need a 2 year horizon to see a good return from here, though a favourable CEO appointment could hasten that.
nk1999
17 Sep 2015
Re: Future Divi Games - You calculation of 6.2p total dividend based on 40% cut in Final dividend also seems reasonable.Looking at numbers, the EPS is expected to be in 12.5-13p range. Board is targeting 1.5-2.0x cover with a progressive dividend thereafter. So they may like to start with lower figure i.e. 2.0x cover. That also gives about 6.2-6.5p.nk
axel27
17 Sep 2015
Re: Sentiment HI Games Investor,To quote, "Basically the business is struggling"...NO!"Sub-optimum" rather than struggling which I reserve for loss making business'. PFL makes money, pays dividend.Agree that sentiment indicates uncertainties in future dividend versus future investment required. I was not sure WHY exec indicating they need to invest more in IT infrastructure and I think a clear plan showing investment versus improved gross margin is what is needed in the business optimization. I did not understand why they need so much dividend cover in a mature business, which really shouldn't need continued significant CAPEX. I use them as a supplier and they and the IT is fine.What's the loans / gearing and is that reason for selling parts of the business, or are we looking at special dividend to return excess shareholder funds...I guess I need to average down to make yet more money out of the folks who want out....A
gamesinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Sentiment Sentiment in the stock market is a wonderful thing isn't it?OK before everyone starts reaching for the sick bucket because of some philosphical crass sentence to follow, let's look at the numbers.In 2011 PFL share price was about 305p at the peak, when revenue was about £990M and pre-tax profit was about £93MToday the share price is 114.7 as I type and the Revenue is approx £975M projected for this year (give or take 5-10% for error) and pre-tax profit is projected at £73M - £77MSo the revenue has declined 1.5% and the pre-tax profit is down about 21.5% taking the low projection of £73M.The share price is down 62.5%.Was the share price at 305p overpriced on a P/E at that time of 16?Or is it now very undervalued at 115 (went up while I'm typing) on a forward P/E of about 8.8.Basically the business is struggling, but it hasn't collapsed per se. It is definitely more competitive and the online aspect has changed the goal posts, the management needs a kick up the backside or a kick out the door, but it ain't a disaster.Games
Frankers70
17 Sep 2015
Re: Future Divi Yeah, I was just wondering what the overall divi would now be. It still looks ok at 5.2% based on a 119p share price but I'm averaging 158p and the share price is still dropping as I type.Posters are probably right about the sum of the parts being fair value at 140p but here's the rub. The city hates a profit warning and dividend cut, and together gives an opportunity to drag the share price lower, buy in cheaply and sell again once any future good news emerges. Sadly, I always seem to be at the other end of the cycle!!! 114p as I finish typing 
gamesinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Profit Projections """Accordingly, we now anticipate second half operating profit performance to be lower than previous expectations, with full year adjusted operating profit now expected to be in the range of £73m to £77m.""Given that the 2015 FY figures ending Feb 2015 were an operating profit of £69.1M, then £73M-£77M doesn't look too bad.Unless there is absolutely no confidence in even the lower figure, then the share price drop is well over done - twice over now as this is the second time the share price has been hit.The share price at now - quick check - 114.3 is down 43% from it's 200p peak.Games -- If you are brave you could buy more here, collect the September divi and put them under the mattress.
gamesinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Future Divi So if 40% has been axed of the interim, taking it down to 2.6p, is it safe to assume a similar cut from the final of 6p takes it down to 3.6p.Quick calculation gets 6.2p or approx 5.2% yield based on a share price of 119 as I type.Games
gamesinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Lol!! You couldn't make this up :-"As part of its strategic review the company said it would now refocus on the “fundamentals of distribution: product, pricing and proposition". So what she is saying is that she forgot what the business was all about, i.e stocking and selling other manufacturers parts to equipment builders on a timely basis in a mix of small and large quantities.How on earth does she still have a job fercryinoutloud.Games
gamesinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Akron """Chairman Val Gooding said Akron was an "excellent business", but did not fit strategically within the portfolio given the group’s refocus on its core distribution activities"Clearly it's so excellent - she wants to sell it. I wonder how she managed to get the job?I can understand closing off the Brazil unit if it's in cost overun and burning cash, but if it's an excellent business it makes profit and therefore can probably grow --??Games -- Still they can use the cash to shore up the main business.
Greyinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Re: Results out I couldn't agree more, Harriet Green would have been perfect. In, wham, great sale price, out.......
gamesinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Re: Results out Hi Grey,The results are not as bad as the drop in the share price suggests, which is more a reaction to the cut in the dividend which at 40% is harsh and ahead of the fall in the business.Overall the revenue and profit are not a million miles away here and it just needs a management team to sort it out.Harriet Green would have been the perfect fit as she is radical and used to run Macro (now Diploma) so she knows how distribution works. She has gone off to run a division of IBM for some enormous salary no doubt.This is still a sound business and it could be taken out if the share price gets any weaker.Games - I too got caught in this too early enetering at 170
Greyinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Valuation In my opinion the market is pricing this incorrectly. I think that the company should break itself up and sell out. I put the 'sum of the parts' valuation at a bit north of £1.40. So at todays price, it's a Buy for me. Unfortunately I have as many as I want. Grrr......
Greyinvestor
17 Sep 2015
Results out Half year results out today, and they are not pretty.Revenue up £498m v £479mPBT down £30.6m v £36.4mEPS 5.8p v 6.8p, well downDivi 2.6p v 4.4p, down 40% - terribleFull year profit forecast £73m to £77m, seems high to meAkron Brass up for sale - good, should fetch a good price. Good business but no 'fit' at all.This is a recovery story. Will the City like it or not?These shares were a value trap, and I fell right into it. Post Akron, this company should merge with ECM. Nothing else makes any sense. Get on with it.....and get rid of the Chairwoman, who should have pushed and reacted harder.I'm holding, for now......
Omaha man
10 Sep 2015
Re: Everyone likes a bit of... As I understand it though margins on the Pi are very low so while it may be good news I'm not sure it will do a lot for profits.
