II Editor
26 Feb 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Market movers and why Provident Financial has plunged again "Equity markets in the UK and Europe made a good start, following on from a late surge in the US on Friday and a positive start to the week in Asia.Inflation and US monetary policy has been the catalyst for recent volatility and remains the centre ..."[link]
rRomeo29
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Chucko, please first explain why Woodford & each of his II's friends were supporting the Sp during the past four months (proven by endless holding increase), and then suddenly stopped it?During the first speculation around the announced 120 mln loss the Sp dropped to 670ish, but every drop was bought into by someone. It wasn't me.The 670 and at least the 658p line has been persistently supported, and every selloff was eventually leading to a rebound to 670p or even spikes to 720ish.-> Now suddenly, as from the past 14 days, when PFG was in urgent need for price support, someone allowed the 670p to be breached, even those 658p super lows.This can be only explained because someone knew that PFG would have another storm ahead.-> Right on the day when there was speculation on the share chats that one of the directors is leaving, the Sp dropped from 720 ish down to 670 ish in one afternoon. That's without any official RNS. Plse scroll back and check the chart.-> The fact is that journalists from UK Telegraph have known about the rights issue throughout the last week (and released their info last Thurday), which is a long time before PFG is informing the public. So much for your 14 yrs prision fine I am sure that Woodford got informed by someone. This is why all of the II's allowed the Sp to drift to untested waters (639p!) last week. They knew there was a big storm ahead.Today holds the proof.(Sorry to say, but your FCA is a toothless lion, nothing compared to the American SEC.)--------"...market has been speculating on many things the past weeks, one of which was the likelihood and scale of a rights issue. I think these market activities better explain the recent price movements rather than some sort of conspiracy."
FRTEB
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday So the PFG sp plummits within a whisker of the results being announced. Of course there's no such as leaked results or insider trading. Oh no. I would write another missive to the FCA but after previous dealings with them I don't think I'll bother. It went something like: Automated reply. Reply from real live person saying he'd pass the information on the relevant team. No update after two weeks so I sent a chaser email. Reply from same admin bod reiterating that he'd passed my info on to relevant team but that neither he or the team will be able to let me know what, if anything, they have done or will do. So I assume that's SFA. Waste of space.
dandigirl
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Exactly! Astonished that others cannot see this too. Hey-ho. There is a viable business trying to re-establish itself after techies persuaded management to ‘online’ something that should not have been. Watch the bond prices rise if the RI goes ahead. Really, can anyone see the likes of Woodford allowing PFG to go under now?
Chucko63
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday rRomeo,supposing that there will indeed be a rights issue, can you explain why Woodford et al. would have an interest in buying with “insider knowledge”. So as well as committing a criminal offence punishable with a maximum of 14 years in prison, they would also be costing their funds significant value.The market has been speculating on many things the past weeks, one of which was the likelihood and scale of a rights issue. I think these market activities better explain the recent price movements rather than some sort of concert party conspiracy!
Chucko63
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Dandigirl, my sentiments entirely. The business does not appear to be in such bad shape that the rights issue would not succeed. And from that point, the bonds appear to be well protected, offering in the case of the 5.125% 2023 issue, a total return of well over 40% over the next 5 years.
daverob82
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Agree, strange sentiment to have.I'm also a holder of the PFG7 bonds with a GRY around 18%, having bought after the crash. As a result, I have been somewhat insulated from the daily rollercoaster of PFG itself but clearly have a vested interest in the viability and return to profitability of the company.A rights issue will protect the bond investment in terms of guaranteeing the next coupon, but this is of no value if the company goes bust a year on!
john222
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday how do you mean, you feel ok and insulated or worried about collapse?
dandigirl
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Love it, as a holder of the retail bonds!
contrarianstyle
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday holy smoke here we go again..is a rights issue priced in at 5.75?
rRomeo29
25 Feb 2018
drop next Tuesday Place your bets - whether rise or drop.Some said that PFG could try to create double bottom at its 589p low, last year August.---------- ----"Provident tests the water on £500m rights issue: Doorstep loans giant Provident Financial has been sounding out investors about a bumper cash call as it seeks to draw a line under the most disastrous period in its 140-year history.Management want to raise as much as £500m to pay a string of forthcoming fines and repair the firm’s battered balance sheet. Senior bankers said a rights issue could even be unveiled alongside Provident’s annual results this week. Investment bankers at Cazenove and Barclays have led the discussions with investors and are likely to act as chief underwriters on the deal, if it goes ahead."[link]
rRomeo29
24 Feb 2018
rise next Tuesday IMO next Tuesday will see either a rebound or a stabilization of the Sp.Some say that "Vanquis" could be much better than expected. Or at least this monthlong hammering of PFG has been a little unjustyfied... mildly speaking.Think about it: The chart pattern shows that after every weeklong retrace, the following RNS release was much better than expected.And after every weeklong rise - and peak out - the following RNS held bad surprises.I will probably stay in with a samll 1k shares punt, and see how it goes.Whatever the reaction: Up or down, you will always have several opportunities to buy more or to sell.
rRomeo29
24 Feb 2018
Re: 671 - 676p support Chucko, good man, first of all please excuse my foreign English!So next time you try to explain something in French or in Spanish, or German and I look for your errors You know that I meant banks were indeed fined billions, and not a few million peanuts. So please calm down - detective.1) On some days in recent weeks a few "unknown traders" have managed to take down the share price substantially, by selling merely 50, 75 or 90k shares. Thats ridiculous. Far away from the 1% change you mention.2) Lets use the opportunity to recall that a PLC relies on financial allies as well as market makers in order to maintain its share price. And lets recall that every PLC has a strong interest to hold the Sp stable or even buy back shares to increase it.3) Invesco & Woordford can be seen as the main financial allies, as they are doing each and everything to support or even control PFG. Unlike institutions like Blackrock, who would have kicked many a r s e s by now. Hmmm, because Invesco & Woodford are incredibly calm when it comes to be tough on PFG. No?Untill recently Woodford continued to support the PFG share price without telling anyone. For months he bought on every weakness, and eventually reported this very large and mildly speaking "suspicious" stakeholding increase. Odd, because also his institutional friends have increased (one by the way is his former employer 4) If Woodford & friends had not continuesly bought shares on those many dips last autumn, from 880 / 830 and 790p, the Sp would have crashed down to all time lows last winter. It didnt.For some reason Woodford & Club decided to buy more shares - whatever it takes. Whatever the cost. Why is that, buddy?5) Suddenly, after the January company update (which partly must have been known by the biggest stakeholders), Woodford & Club stopped supporting the share price. Obviously we havent seen any further % increases, right?Since their support stopped, the Sp dipped to ridiculous levels. On some days, like last Thursday, a 20k sell trade manages to take the price from 680p down to 639p, which is a total joke.This is why some people on other share chats suggested that the support is over.5) How to find out the future share price? Easy peasy!The entire PFG management knows the figures since several days. You will probably agree that Malcom is not the one last to know, come Tuesday morning.This means that leading managers - and even small divisional managers - already have got a few hints what type of numbers will be released next week:Very good - good - okay - neutral - or bad.Dont you think a man like Woordford (and his former employer Invesco), II's who have hundreds of million Pounds invested in PFG, have the ability to dig out a few infos?All it takes is popping into any mid level PFG manager on the street and get a little hint.But lets just say Woodford, the man with the biggest network in the city, never speaks to anyone... Lets say only PFG itself knows the exact figures right this moment. Yu will agree to this, right? So in this case they know as of this minute if PFG will rise or dip next week. Never mind to what extend. In order not to let the share wobble uncontrolled, they must have strong financial allies for next week Tuesday to "handle" the share price movement. You guessed right: Woodford & Invesco.Come on, this is an "inbreed" share! They hold almost 80% !If II's got a hint that the company figures are neutral, then they know the Sp will come under pressure again. Is this the reason why Woodford for some reason stopped alloting more shares? He could have had shares for silly low 700p and 650p, but he ain't increasing. Why is that, matey?The only explanation is:He and his 80% stakeholder friends want to drive out remaining expendable holders. Some large private holders who have their life savings in here - for 2,000 and 3,000p per share.Or he stopped buying/supporting, because Woodford got a hint
Chucko63
24 Feb 2018
Re: 671 - 676p support rRomeo29, do you write your posts always during Happy Hour? I was going to respond to the very many errors in your post of Tuesday until I read Thursday’s post.You begin by debunking much of what you had previously asserted (a supported share price of circa 670p). It is not “very, very weird” at all what has happened, but rather quite normal from the standpoint of normal people.Woodford and Invesco do not have traders playing around in the market as you assert. Any 1% change in their holding of PFG would have to be reported - you think they would take the risk of having to report a sale that would contradict their public statements of support?Of course, one can never be 100% certain of anything, but you do not do your credibility many favours by seemingly putting Woodford and Invesco in the same “criminal” bracket as the various banks which, by the way, were fined many billions by numerous regulators rather than 100s of millions as you state. Furthermore, they did not “sell credit default” - they bought it as it is akin to an insurance contract. I could go on, but I am sure you have a better and more up-to-date theory to put me in my place. Perhaps it is the interesting concept of the “company knowing its next average price” (stated as a range 17.8% wide). This concept contradicts just about all current financial asset price theory and would be bound to make you a certainty for a Nobel Prize in Economics. And think of it, it all started from the tiny acorn of a iii BB page.
rRomeo29
22 Feb 2018
Re: 671 - 676p support Very very weird. Someone has stopped to support the share price. In my opinion its either a "flush out" of remaining small holders. Or the company knows its next average price (500 - 589p) and lets the Sp drift.
