contrarianstyle
27 Feb 2018
Break above £10 Shorters getting buried, staying long
bhptuner
27 Feb 2018
Re: short covering please tell me you shorted at 900 shuggle lol
shugg1e
27 Feb 2018
short covering Looks like just a short covering induced rally and looks to head back to test the lows with the rights issue.looking to go short again at 900p
blouson blouse
27 Feb 2018
Vanquis settlement I suspect the market is reading too much into this. the provision is a large number but it doesn't- so far as I can tell from a very brief look- deal with any actual claims from the public for misselling. As Lloyds has shown so brilliantly every year, trying to accurately assess payments for misselling is very difficult ( they confidently kitchen sinked PPI ( after denying ANY liability) at £3b and now have provided almost £19 billion....think about what that means).I feel Vanquish is the liability that will continue to haunt this business for years to come. Add in the uncertainty over where the business does stabilise, which is still unknown especially with so many people having gone to competitors; and the dilution from the raise and it just seems there are many more lurches down on the roller coaster still to come.One for traders not investors IMHO
meisterx
27 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Wow!
dandigirl
27 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday The press release indicates that Woodford accounts for nearly 50% and is supportive of the RI. The RI is fully underwritten. Great news for debt holders. I have had a little top up of 66WS @ 88 this morning.
Chucko63
27 Feb 2018
Results 2017 A rights issue of £300mm (fully underwritten) not £500mm and a pretax 2% higher than market consensus. Unspecified FCA fine but will be covered by the RI with remainder for increased regulatory capital. The wilder estimates of £500mm to £1bn total fines were a long way off which is rather what has crushed the SP the past months.Gradual return to dividend in 2018. An expression of some return to normality.Although I am not a shareholder, I would take some long term comfort from the absence of negative surprises. As a bond holder, this is as good as I could have wished.
Chucko63
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Dandigirl, you are talking my language!What is important for me is to get an idea of what the balance sheet will look like once the one time capital hits are defined (ie the reg fines and loss for 2017). And once we see the collection numbers and direction of travel on this, it will be easier to take a view on the safety of the bonds after a RI announcement.
Chucko63
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday FRTEB, although I cannot cite chapter and verse on insider rules, it is acceptable to discuss many price-sensitive things with individuals, including existing holders of stock or debt. However, once done, it is illegal to trade on such information.This happens all the time as corporations and even governments need to assure that a proposed issue or restructuring (or whatever) is feasible.I have myself been an insider (via my work) on many occasions and have had to sign a form on each occasion acknowledging such. It says what I can and cannot do.Much more broadly, banks have greylists of securities which no employee of a bank may trade and this would typically be those securities relating to deals which some part of the bank might be working on where such a deal could be considered price sensitive. It is, of course, not unknown for individuals to ignore, circumvent or abuse this information. Oddly (or not) it is the compliance function which administers such a greylist who have a disproportionate frequency of offending! (maybe because they are upset they don’t earn the big money).In the case of PFG, a discussion with Woodford and Barnett would be vital, I would have thought. That said, I am not sure at what point he becomes an insider as it is different from saying that a RI is certain. But I see the probability that Woodford would play any game with PFG shares to be the square root of zero.
meisterx
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Sqeeezy bottoms tonight best hope the wives don't wake up to a stink
FRTEB
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday So it's perfectly acceptable for a company to discuss material information that may affect the share price with some investors but not others? I think not.
dandigirl
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Between them, Woodford and Barnett ‘handle’ nearly 50% of the shares. It would be just plain stupid behaviour if the Board did not confer with them regarding a RI to ensure that they are willing to take up their allocation. If they don’t, any RI would fail. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if they (W and B) are part of an underwriting group. For goodness sake!
FRTEB
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday Chuck, effectively you are saying that a rumour (it is not "news"
about a rights issue has been taken as fact by enough of the market to drive the sp down today alone by almost 13% ? I don't buy it. If it turns out to be fact, and we will only know that tomorrow, then it is too much of a coincidence and I think it much more likely that someone somewhere has let the cat out of the bag prior to a release of information to the wider market. Otherwise we have some very, very expert clairvoyants operating in the financial world.
daverob82
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday rRomeo - my guess is that Woodford's proximity to PFG led him to believe that a rights issue would become an inevitability. As this will be at a significant discount, I wouldn't be surprised to see him buy then and for support to continue from the RI price.
Chucko63
26 Feb 2018
Re: drop next Tuesday FRTEB, I think your suspicions are as ill-founded as those of rRomeo’s (seems like I like arguing).Yes, the results are tomorrow. But why do you ascribe the fall today as “insider trading” rather than the more prosaic reason that it is actually a reaction to a potential RI that is about 55% of the current market value (Friday’s) of the company. Shares do tend to fall on such news!The FCA are interested in insider trading, but there does have to be more than pure guesswork.
