Provident Financial Live Discussion

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rRomeo29 01 Mar 2018

Re: Real price 725p ...now retrace to the mentioned 940ish.

rRomeo29 01 Mar 2018

Re: How much didwoodford pay for them Woodford has build his stakes since the old 400p days, and again since the 1,500p and 2,500p days.Last year he basically increased during the downspike to 425p where the Sp was massively supported. He bought more during the week closing around 589p.And when the Sp rose to 800 ish and 900ish (even at 940p!) he topped up substantially.My guess now is that he increased his holding last week Friday during that 550p downspike. And now he has enough shares )

Davala 28 Feb 2018

How much didwoodford pay for them Anyone know?

rRomeo29 28 Feb 2018

Re: Real price 725p Struggling to hold the newly gained 1000p.Near term the Sp will likely bounce and return to about 940 ish.- New buy signal only if 1,045 are climbed- long term buy only if 1,096p is climbed

Damp Seaweed 28 Feb 2018

Re: at 1000p hard to see value Overlooked the mess they have yet to sort out with their agents. But I hope hearts and minds are focusssed on fixing that.

Damp Seaweed 28 Feb 2018

Re: at 1000p hard to see value 305020,Like dandigirl, I have limited interest in the equity. I hold PFG7 retail bond.But it seems to me that the smart money has decided that there is no profit on the short side in the near term. The price action certainly has a goodly element of a short squeeze in it.I’m sure that there might be money to be made shorting this stock at some point. But at the moment their is a lot of trend supporting momentum on the long side. I’ve no idea of your entry point, or level of conviction. And I certainly would not express a view as to when to take a hedge. (Daily is looking marginally over bought).But you might want to consider it as an option.On a fundamental level, did PFG not have a market cap of ~£3bn last year before the poo hit the fan. One could argue that most of the problem is quantified and behind them. Certainly they may be less profitable going forward. But a valuation in excess of £2bn does not seem in plausible.All very IMHO, DYOR etc etc

r21442 28 Feb 2018

Re: at 1000p hard to see value Top marks for admitting your short position. Entitled to your opinion that the market has this wrong. Hope your losses are not terminal.

bhptuner 28 Feb 2018

Re: at 1000p hard to see value ohh, your the dump in pump and dump?

thirty fifty twenty 28 Feb 2018

at 1000p hard to see value amazing bounce yesterday but i find it very hard to see value at 2bna 17 for 22 rights with no business benefit????the money goes for either compensation or higher contingency capital...that is not a good place for a business to beand the FSA is going to be all over them for the next few years......they will , just using common sense, not be as profitable as before,and they will not be allowed to grow agressivelyso i find it very hard to see how they can have even a market avergae rating.profits at best 3 years out will be 200m,thet are only expecting a 10% return on equityso i dont see value at 2bn valuation post rights.at a simple level as well the fact that the regulator forces them to have extra contingency surely sends a signal that the regulator is worried about the health of the UK consumer (at the lower income end)this area is also critical politically so i think the days of excess profits are overAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLPFG is in my portfolio (SHORT)

bhptuner 27 Feb 2018

Re: Real price 725p Get real ,it's priced in

r21442 27 Feb 2018

Re: Real price 725p Oh my goodness! The LSE must have become a really inefficient market and all these financial whizz kids must have got it so wrong?

quiet 27 Feb 2018

Real price 725p All this excitement about a £10.00 share price ignores the fact that we're about to be heavily diluted by a 17 for 24 rights issue at £3.15. I make that an average price of about £7.25 - do you agree? Anyone thinking of not taking up their rights would be best advised to sell before the record date.

FRTEB 27 Feb 2018

Re: Wild ride " Is the dividend worth it over the profit? How many years of dividends would you need to match the profit? Profit is a profit at the end of the day. " Good questions and I don't disagree with your stance. I've swing traded a lot in the past (not PFG) with good results but I think the risk here is not being able to get back in at the ~650 level. On my original buy in price I can easily see a yield of 5+% from 2019 onwards along with a further paper profit so as tempting as a quick and healthy capital gain is, I'm sticking with my original intention of a long term investment for the income and as things stand I'll take up my full 17 for 24 rights.

meisterx 27 Feb 2018

Re: just to think .. I bought yesterday to average down not much as was drip feeding. I've been in numerous stocks over the years that have had a rights issue or open offer and none have risen 75%. This is a rare one off in my time investing in the markets. Conversely it could have down a significant amount.One detail l missed is the amount of stock short here l didn't anticipate such a short covering but that helped sell out with healthy profit.

axolotl 27 Feb 2018

just to think .. I could have bought a shedload yesterday and somehow I didn't think of it. What planet can I have been on?

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