Meanbugger
16 May 2017
Re: Results The impression I get is that the maturity of the business is hitting home and the management have decided it's a waste of time trying to turn a carthorse into a thoroughbred. All they can do is run the business for cash and try and maximise overseas sales. It's all very well trying to extend brands but when the likes of Tesco are reducing SKUs it's a mug's game. It would make sense to gear up the business through issuing bonds and for PFD to acquire other mature grocery brands in the same way the tobacco industry has consolidated a declining industry. The shares are probably cheap but are going to stay cheap for the foreseeable.
marktime1231
16 May 2017
Re: Results rather indigestible report!Made deliberately difficult to draw an informed conclusion in fact, every set of negative figures is printed alongside a re-casting which makes them read more positive, except for overall pension liability which was not published anywhere in contrast to pension assets, and as you say is key to fortunes.My take was that revenues and profit have drifted away, for reasons which are rattled off - if you believe half the excuses then this business carries all the woes of the world and every bit of bad luck going seems to stick. No real prospect nor forecast of growth. There is a ruinous cash drain meaning they will be incapable of rewarding investors with a dividend for years. Instead did they say they were raising extra cash through 5 year securities instead, no doubt paying a ripping rate of interest, which is a double smack in the teeth for suffering shareholders.The only hope was a renewed buy out approach, of which activity not even a mention, and that for me is the last straw.Out.
The buzz
16 May 2017
Results Hmm. I have had a quick look at them and must admit that they appear to me to be rather indifferent. All underlying figures are lower than last year. Supposedly adjusted earnings per share of 7.2p -if only the money was not being shovelled into the pension schemes.As I suspected in earlier posts, the pension scheme figures are not good - probably mainly due to changing the discount rate from 3.55% to 2.65%. The pension deficit on the Premier Foods scheme has increased from £420m to £489.1m. PFD has issued 832.1m shares, so the increase in deficit per share on this scheme is 69.1/832.1=8.3p. ie The underlying earnings did not keep up with the increase in the pension deficit.There is talk about the overall deficit not increasing by so much, but surely the RHM scheme is not going to bale out the other scheme? The overall pension scheme valuation surplus 'only' shrank from £130.9m to £104.8 due to further improvements in the RHM pension surplus. The pension cash contribution has whizzed up from £12.9m to £51.7m pa. No wonder that PFD wanted a pension cash payment reduction - it is starving the company of cash Is this why they are talking about issuing a new bond? The only glimmer of hope is that the discount rate is now set at a particularly low level and might start to increase in the future.The B
The buzz
08 May 2017
Cadbury Cakes Renewal of the marketing agreement was a crucial deal that PFD could not have afforded to lose. Cadbury cakes has been a key product for some time now.The B
alfa-spider
30 Apr 2017
Re: ABF results sadly you're correct. They just seem unable to do anything to build their brands. (Those they have left)
tradingup
29 Apr 2017
ABF results mate - If ABF are in the Premier League PFD are strugging to avoid relegation out ofDivision 4!
alfa-spider
19 Apr 2017
ABF results This is what Premier should be aiming for.19 April 2017Associated British Foods plc announces its interim results for the 24 weeks ended 4 March 2017Excellent progress on all fronts Financial HighlightsActualConstant currencyGroup revenue£7,296m+19%+7%Adjusted operating profit£652m+36%+23%Adjusted profit before tax£624m+35%Adjusted earnings per share59.7p+30%Dividend per share11.35p+10%Gross capital investment£416mNet cash£190mStatutory operating profit up 36% to £640m and, with the benefit of a profit on the sale of businesses, profit before tax up 92% to £867m and basic earnings per share up 79% to 80.5pGeorge Weston, Chief Executive of Associated British Foods, said:“The underlying growth of the group at constant currency was strong in the first half. Primark delivered a substantial increase in selling space which, together with its strong consumer offering, contributed to a further increase in our share of the total clothing market. Furthermore, we achieved a more acceptable rate of return in Sugar and further good progress was made by our Ingredients and Grocery businesses.”Adjusted operating profit is stated before the amortisation of non-operating intangibles, profits less losses on disposal of non-current assets and transaction costs. These items, together with profits less losses on the sale and closure of businesses, are excluded from adjusted profit before tax and adjusted earnings per share. Constant currency is derived by translating the 2016 results at 2017 average exchange rates.References to operating profit in the Operating Review are based on the adjusted measure defined above.
The buzz
30 Mar 2017
Re: Pensions Update Wearing a pensions hat, the projected rate of increase in life expectancy seems to be reduced in the latest study:-[link] might sound a bit academic but could be very significant for PFD for future pension deficit calculations.Although it says ""Medical research, application of past breakthroughs, innovative use of technology and potential for lifestyle improvements all mean that lifespans will continue to increase," it does not mention the increase in obesity and its associated issues such as heart problems and diabetes - just go to the USA and one soon realises that obesity seems to be far more prevalent there - what happens in the USA seems to happen here a few years later.The B
The buzz
28 Mar 2017
Pensions Update Although I did not spot the new estimate of pension deficit in the announcement, I was really surprised that the near term annual contributions had fallen so much. I had anticipated a big increase in the deficit due to the lower discount rate that needs to be applied - and hence why I had been reducing my PFD holding in anticipation of some bad news here. As always pension deficits take a long while to materialise, so the removal of a significant amount of payment pressure is really good news for PFD as it allows them much more business freedom of movement.The B
Virtue
24 Mar 2017
Re: Quorn - Old news but I didn't know it un... But did you know that it was Premier Foods (when they were called Ranks Hovis McDougall) who actually invented Quorn in the 1970's. At that stage it was called Project A3/5 and struggled to generate much interest. It was sold to Unilever.
marktime1231
24 Mar 2017
Re: Merrill Lynch Holdings Looked at this yesterday and couldn't work it out. ML has sold its 7.8% stake presumably to an institution or it would have showed up as a market trade with a price. I guessed this was part of the Oasis transaction which has already been declared but it is now being reported after-the-event. If it was a new move the incoming investor would have had to declare?It feels like the only way is up from here but it is not yet clear what is going to happen next.Aparently Beever has been spotted on the golf course looking suddenly much older - "if he was a donkey he would have been shot by now" - so his already declared departure should be imminent. The next signal as to PFD's future will be the announcement of his replacement.
The buzz
24 Mar 2017
Merrill Lynch Holdings Surprised that there has been no comment on the earlier RNS:-[link] of 64,927,089 shares (7.8%) holding now below notifiable threshold - presumably 3%. So they have sold off at least 4.8%?Two questions arise - a large holder who should know what is going on has sold so many shares. The next question is who has been buying the shares and will the potential removal of a big seller help the share price?? Just opened this morning at 43-43.75p so the price is holding up.The B
The buzz
20 Mar 2017
Re: Just go my Pocket Money Just sold another 10k - this time got 43.75p. Someone clearly wants the shares. Not sure of the politics, but am just pleased of a quick profit!The B
The buzz
20 Mar 2017
Re: Just go my Pocket Money another rise today. Currently 43.25p-43.5p. Just sold another 20k for a bit more pocket money. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush as they say. Not big bucks but as I previously stated, I had bought on the premise that this was a yo-yo share with money to be made on the swings.The B
pharmaspecialist
06 Mar 2017
Re: Quorn - Old news but I didn't know it un... Yes, I think most shareholders would agree that the company's brands would be worth significantly more in someone else's hands, as the experience with Quorn suggests. I must admit that is why I have a small shareholding as a bidder would be aware of how to generate more value and I hope would bid correspondingly. I do not expect the existing management to be able to achieve much more than their track record would suggest.
