The buzz
12 Oct 2016
Re: Trading update - For/ Against Buying PFD... Footnote:-[link] are slogging it out with Unilever about putting up prices. Exactly one of my points, Unilever is much bigger than PFD but even they are feeling the wrath of Tesco. If one remembers back a few years, PFD had the same battle with Tesco - and came off worse! ie PFD could be finding its profit margins being squeezed.The B
Nice to Michu
12 Oct 2016
Re: Trading update A poor update, sadly. But a set-back rather than a disaster.Mug that I am though I topped up at 45ish p at lunch time ( granted I sold some in the 50's previously.)Still overall profit targets remain intact and their international business is growing and with international partner(s)and sterlings plight CAN SURELY READILY GROW MUCH MOREI still have faith here, one way or other: a takeover, at a better price than that recently refused, from a US or European player is more likely now sterling is much weakened.. or Darby and mates will turn it around bit by bit.. or if not be removed and the next guys turn it around.. or the guys after.Also, eventually price inflation instead of deflation will come back at the supermarkets and that will help.Premier Foods has strong brands and a way of better monetising these will be found, I believe.
pyueck
12 Oct 2016
Re: Trading update It wasn't that hot, it's the month after August what do people expect! I chose Manchester for no reason apart from it's around in the middle of the UK.[link] bit above average, but then again February to April was below and I can't remember a surge of sales then, or maybe its why they got the confidence to turn down the bid.September 2015 was a little cold [link] but come on the weather has not been 'unusual' at all this year. From my perspective, bar some catastrophic natural disaster, weather is a terrible excuse for a company. Of course it can affect sales short term, but over more than a few months will even itself out.
item club
12 Oct 2016
Buying opportunity ! Buying opportunity @ this well oversold price !!
alfa-spider
12 Oct 2016
Re: Trading update "Indian summer" - maybe they should introduce a curry flavoured gravy as a contingency
pharmaspecialist
12 Oct 2016
Re: Trading update I think blaming sharply lower gravy sales on an Indian summer is an indicator of the quality of management the company has, but I guess it also has raised a chuckle ot two amongst those who know the company.
The buzz
12 Oct 2016
Trading update - For/ Against Buying PFD? Sounds like my earlier decision to virtually sell out at higher prices was fortuitous. That decision was based on the yo-yo price for PFD. OK it is a bit like a moth round a flame - but recently buying low and selling high after a short holding period has worked out well for me. Currently 45-45.5p, a big drop - but looking at the chart I would really want to buy back at below 40p. That said we are already down about 10p on very recent highs - apparently based on the talk of a McCormick hostile bid.So the pessimist's view will be:-Trading is down (yet another weather excuse comes out). September is always warm anyway!The pension deficit will be much larger (in particular the fund that is in deficit, as opposed to the sum of the deficits as one fund was in profit) when they come to show their results.Pension payments will have to increase putting more pressure on the available profits.McCormick has gone.The managements' predictions are falling into tatters - they are becoming discredited - particularly after turning down the McCormick bid.The share could be a target for shorters.Costs have risen due to the falling pound (and the price of sugar) putting pressure on prices.Lower profits - so not trading as well as predicted - reducing the speed and scope for recovery and paying down of debt. ie Less attractive to investors and bidders. Did anyone mention dividends? - they are sailing into the sunset...The 50p+ share price was an aberration and will not be seen again for some time, if at all.It could be some time before some positive news flow comes back to make the share price move up - money in the shares will be dead money - and also subject to being held through the potentially turbulent period for share prices during the Brexit talks.The optimist's view might be:-The results were genuinely influenced by the weather.Things are expected to be better in H2.Full year profit predictions are unchanged.Lots of things are starting to go well now - eg overseas sales.The £ has fallen in value so it would be less expensive for a McCormick hostile bid.McCormick has an opportunity to come back while the company is recovering from a setback and the management will be unlikely to resist a second take-over bid.The share price has fallen - plenty of scope for it to rise back again.I feel that overall there could be so much short term negative news feed from the journalists that the share price could well go below 40p. There is the possibility that things could come good in time, but the main plus is a potential hostile bid: but what are the odds of that? Probably not high enough to be relied upon - and I am concerned that the pension deficit could be a poison pill as the the deficit will be much larger than when McCormick originally proposed a take-over. So I seem to have gone back in my mind to a buy price of below 40p to give me a prospect of a profit on any good news flow - and the prospect of a wind fall following with a successful take-out bid. 44.5-44.75p.The B
pyueck
12 Oct 2016
Re: Trading update Let me quote you from the 23rd March rebuttal 'McCormick approach significantly undervalues Premier's growth prospects'.What a joke, why do these companies always seem to have unfavourable weather, how often do they say it was a month of weather perfect for Sunday lunch.
pyueck
12 Oct 2016
Trading update Dismal, awful, full of excuses. Why didn't they accept the bid
Norman Barrington
11 Oct 2016
Re: McCormicks I am a fan of Ambrosia Custard and Rice. However it is frequently on sale at 95p at Morrisons, and £1 at Tesco. Fairly often though they are both on offer at 50p when I stock up, and note that they are flying off the shelf. Pricing these days is completely detatched from reality. How many things really happen to cost exactly £1? I suspect PF get the same price for their Ambrosia lines, and it is the supermarkets that play around with the pricing. Perhaps 50p earns the supermarkets small margin, whilst £1 is a windfall for the retailers, thanks to those shoppers who are less careful.Odd that there is no happy medium between 50p and £1 though, that applies to many other products.
alfa-spider
10 Oct 2016
Re: McCormicks shame the luxury custard isn't made is house at their Ambrosia site. sourced from 3rd party
pyueck
10 Oct 2016
Re: McCormicks Hi do you have a source you could share?In other news has anybody noticed that so much of pfd's items are on discount with the supermarkets? This should boost revenues but doubt much margins left as normally these are funded by producer not the supermarket.Loving the new product ranges though, especially the luxury custard, if you haven't tried it give it a go!
The buzz
06 Oct 2016
Re: McCormicks Does this explain the sudden jump just now to 55.5-56p on low volumes (so far declared)? What is surprising as the real time share trades are not registering many trades at this higher price range.Rats - I had sold loads at a good profit and had a minimal holding as I was waiting for the price to do its usual trick and fall back so that I could replenish. I was also concerned that the pension deficit will be much larger (cf Tesco). So in my eyes the pension deficit could be the poison pill (until interest rates have to be raised to defend the £
.The B
Fred Prior
06 Oct 2016
McCormicks reported to be manoeuvring to go hostile with PFD, which would explain the recent price rush.I would expect a price of 75-85p per share if cash, so a decent profit from these levels, whilst if true will not make LTHs happy, at least it will be with a BoD that know how to create value for their shareholders, Darby has not got what it takes, simple.Lets see what pans out the coming days weeks.Good luck.
pharmaspecialist
30 Sep 2016
Re: Positive news today. Sorry should have said Beever rather than Cheever - I imagine his period of tenure as Chairman will also be forgotten fairly quickly.
