lizardtongue
17 Nov 2017
Waited long enough Just banged sizable amount in here.Take overs rumours @ £6.00 a share and price targets of £5.40Touching wood and all that.GLALT
Hub
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case MaxValue,PFC are being shorted by the same ilk as that on Tullow et al. The share price machinations are just markets bots and algo's doing the daily business.PoO topped off (temp profit taking) at $65pb ish on Brent and aligned to this Tullow was cica 200p+ and PFC as you say 440's ish.PoO's recent dip back to $61pb (brent) saw a number of oil comanies drop by 10% or so. Tullow back to 170p, PFC down to 390's and even BP losing a wedge too.It's got nothing to do with SFO news.500p off PFC's share price has everything to do with SFO news.In terms of sentiment towards PFC, I agree this has weakened over the last 3 to 4 months due to the $1bln debt pile. If in Dec they confirm this is back to $500m or $600m debt, I think the market will rerate. Combine this with TA whispers and hey presto you have a platform for breaking 500p+.HUBnb. still plenty risk involved so caution always required
veksi
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case MV equity raise is total nonsense and you know it.If PFC needs cash all they need to do is stop paying divi.But if u missed it - divi was already chopped a bit so please getyour facts in some logic please. Pfc still affords to pay 60% of old divi very easily.
MaxValue
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case HubI think its interesting to look at how the sp has moved over the last few days:Over 450 as oil moved higher then a sudden collapse to below 400 (10-15% drop). so what happened? I think its reasonable to assume the drop was related to this SFO update - someone must have known it was on the cards and started bailing.Then what happened - well the breach was stopped - we had the press reports that bidders are circling.Can it really be coincidental that we had the bidders appearing at the same time as the SFO charges?Ultimately we'll only know the truth when instead of press reports we get RNS's confirming an approach - or a denial.So we need PFC to issue an RNS if an approach has been made or the companies mentioned to confirm their interest. If we get that I'd think the sp will fly. Of course if we get nothing the recent upswing will turn and if we get a denial I think its possible the sp will easily breach 400 and maybe test the lows.In terms of the second half being the stronger half - I agree that was mentioned in the interims, lets hope they deliver - anything short will add to the downward pressure.GL, DYORMV
Hub
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case Like watching a herd of bufflo trying to get through a single door.Shorters getting stretched to point of capitulation soon after taking out more weights over last few weeks.It's going to hurt a few. Last time they got spanked was OMAN news. Some were wiped out on that move.HUB
Hub
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case MaxValue,The debt is not an issue. The company has already told you that H2 is heavily weighted to sales and debt reduction.The SFO worst case scenario is priced in already.There are a massive amount of shorts in play which will be crucified should someone make an offer for PFC at 600p+ levels.PoO is recovering. Saudi's want Aramco float in 2018. US shale struggling to find new funding.The list goes on.It's good to see difference in opinion so lets see how this plays out.You seem to be suggesting that you feel a trip back to 370's is in order if I am correct? If not, let me know where you think it better valued and we can base it from there.Remember, this is PFC's strongest half and a trading update is due post Nov 30th Opec meeting - Dec 14th I believe.HUB
MaxValue
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case Hub a rough and ready example of this would be:Say the market cap was 500mAnd the debt is 1bnThe purchaser would need to pay 500m + % premiumThey would take on the debt (which its reasonable to assume would be easier for them to manage and service hence their bid).If the company raises 1bn and pays off the debt the market cap would be 1.5bnOf course the number of shares would increase and the sp would fall significantly but the purchaser would now have to pay 1.5bn + % premuimThis extra immediate cost makes the company less attractive.Just my thoughtsGLA, DYORMV
N1m
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case In terms of SFO case, Hub is correct, worst case possible is priced in. i don't know if any good offer will come fast, I will wait and see!!
MaxValue
17 Nov 2017
Re: SFO case HubOf course the sp has taken a hit - been crushed in fact but that doesn't mean it won't fall further as new developments emerge.The article says the a couple of individuals have been charged by the SFO - if this is accurate it would suggest the SFO have found enough evidence to pursue a prosecution. That is a material development. I'd imagine deals are now being worked out between the parties involved...This can only be bad news for PFC if as you say the market already considers PFC has a case to answer.In terms of the potential offer - firstly at this point I'm not convinced - I think it might be a strategy to boost the sp in the same way 'city sources' were spreading rumours that BP was in play when its sp was floundering - of course that 'bid interest' was nonsense.But if we assume there might actually be some interest - the article says its unwelcome. In fact its already been stated in the previous article the company is formulating a defence strategy - what do you think that means?I would expect it means the company wants to create an environment whereby its not a good target, i.e. its not cheap.If we look at the last interims we can see the net debt position as $1bn. It clearly states PFC is already targeting a reduction in this net debt to strengthen the balance sheet. This level of debt makes a PFC prone to a low ball offer as the majority of the purchase cost consists of taking on the debt rather than the value of the equity.Under these conditions I would think its entirely reasonable and logical to consider the probability has increased of an equity raise to immediately reduce the debt and therefore requiring any bid to be significantly higher and PFC considerably unattractive.On a side point the current issues and uncertainty in the middle east must also be considered a negative on PFC's revenue streams but that's a topic for another day!GLA, DYORMV
