gretel
08 Sep 2015
Broker to increase forecasts? WH Ireland this morning have an 18p price target and note that their forecasts could be raised..."Petards*# (PEG) - Buy – Interims – solid results; forecasts unchangedMarket Cap £4m Price 12p Target 18pInterims demonstrated a very creditable performance. H1 2015A revenue decreased by 15.3%, reflecting the mix of work undertaken in the period. However, the gross margin moved 900bps higher to 36.4%. PBT of £0.4m showed an increase of 30.4%, with diluted EPS moving 22.6% higher to 0.8p. The Group ended the period with a net cash position of £0.4m, an inflow of £0.5m since the beginning of the year. Solid outlook for the remainder of the year. The order book at £19m is marginally lower than the previously reported £20m position in March but shows good order coverage for H2 and beyond. Management note that order intake across the Group has been slower than anticipated in part, but with a good number of opportunities in the current pipeline. Looking further out, last week’s formal opening of the new Hitachi rail vehicle manufacturing facility in Newton Aycliffe is clearly positive. At this stage, we make no changes to our estimates but should current trends continue, see scope for these to be raised in due course. Our valuation is undemanding. Based on our forecasts, the shares currently trade on a FY 2015E fully diluted PER of 7.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.5x. Given the level of secured work, in addition to the pipeline of opportunities ahead, we believe that these multiples significantly undervalue the business. We maintain our Buy recommendation and 18p share price target, a 20% discount to the wider Support Services sector."
gretel
08 Sep 2015
Good H1 results just out PEG made 1.03p EPS in H1 alone, against a 12p share price.Cash generation was good, and they now have a £2m cash pile against a £4.84m m/cap.The outlook statement shows a lot of confidence for the year end outturn.Looking good.
gretel
31 Jul 2015
P/E of 7.8, falling to 6.9 I notice from Hemscott that Hybridan also have forecasts now out for PEG, as well as those from WH Ireland.For the record, they're slightly above WH Ireland's forecasts at:this year : 1.52p EPSnext year : 1.72p EPSAt 11.88p that's a P/E of just 7.8, falling to 6.9.
gretel
31 Jul 2015
More institutional buying Downing UK Micro-Cap Growth Fund continue to buy here - they bought the recent 100,000 and are now up to 3.5m shares (over 10%):[link]
gretel
30 Jul 2015
..and up again today Online looks good too. You can only buy 35k maximum at 11.4p, but you can sell at least 100k at 11p.
gretel
29 Jul 2015
Moved up three times today Very little stock around - overhang cleared hopefully following a couple of big buys.Brief analyst update:[link] Ireland analysts maintained their 'buy' recommendation and 18p target price thanks to the "solid" update"
gretel
28 Jul 2015
WH Ireland have 18p price target ..which they have apparently reiterated today.
gretel
28 Jul 2015
Good trading update today A decent update, with some confidence expressed even at this early stage that forecasts of 1.5p EPS for the year, or around £0.7m PBT, will be met.I'd expect around £0.25m-£0.3m PBT for this H1, given the H2 weighting.The current £4.2m m/cap, with a reasonably strong Balance Sheet, looks good value to me on that basis.
gretel
02 Jul 2015
RNS : Downing now hold almost 10% RNS out - Downing continue to add. They've actually added another 580,000 since their last holdings notification in April and now hold 3.4m, or almost 10%:[link] that this is a mere £4.6m m/cap company one would think this kind of buying would at some point soon lead to a price rise!
gretel
11 May 2015
New ScotRail contract Terrific coverage yesterday - looks like a new contract not yet announced:[link] "Infrared beams ‘to help ScotRail ease congestion’Sunday 10 May 2015INFRARED beams are to be used by ScotRail in an attempt to reduce overcrowding on trains.The technology will be fitted to carriages to detect how full they are, so passengers can be diverted to empty seats elsewhere on the train. It will also enable the firm to add extra coaches to services when there is sudden high demand.The devices will be installed above carriage doorways to count passengers as they cross the beams.etc"
gretel
23 Apr 2015
New Beaufort Securities summary From Beaufort this morning:[link] Group (PEG.L, 11.50p) – Speculative Buy Yesterday, Petards Group released its AGM statement highlighting the range of changes and developments in the company’s internal operations and customer relationships. The company’s long standing partnerships with the likes of Siemens Mobility, Bombardier Transportation and Hitachi Rail Europe, helped it bag additional contracts from the existing customers and some new ones as well. The company has obtained orders worth £3m after entering a five-year framework agreement with Siemens Mobility for the supply of Petards train related products and services. Moreover, the company expects supplementary retrofit work opportunities following the award of the new rail franchises. New opportunities may be expected from the Emergency Services segment despite its small scale of operations at present. The company has been trading in line with the expectations and the order book looks robust and includes the recent orders from Siemens and a major UK defence systems contractor totalling £2m. Our view: The year gone by was a remarkable one as it marked the Petards’ return to profitability. The contract wins, customer acquisitions, tight control over administrative expenses, expanded product offerings, and technological innovation, together led to the overall growth of the company. With over 100% rise in orders from MOD, Siemens, Bombardier and Hyundai Rotem, we believe that the company is in a stronger position than ever before to bolster its prospects for more such contracts in the future. The UK rail operating franchise renewals are likely to more open new opportunities. Going forward, with a stable financial performance and some key contract wins in the past year, we remain hopeful of attractive shareholder returns. We retain a Speculative Buy. "
gretel
16 Mar 2015
Re: Very good results today It's extremely unlikely that the convertible holders will convert before September 2018, simply because 7% interest is too good to miss out on. A few may, but I suspect the vast majority will not.late 2018 PEG will be a completely different company and the convertible shares may well be largely immaterial.
II Editor
16 Mar 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Undervalued Petards returns to profit "LSE
EGetards has fought back following a terrible 2013 and returned to profit after doubling revenue last year. Management remain cautious, but investors continue to back the AIM-listed security and surveillance firm.Turnover reached £13.5 ..."[link]
janebolacha
16 Mar 2015
Re: Very good results today "PS : the convertibles don't mature for over 3 years, so it's pointless to include them in EPS calculations."Quite wrong, read the results statement, the loan may be converted (at 8p) at ANY TIME before maturity:"The convertible £1 loan notes, which were issued in 2013 in connection with its purchase of the entire share capital of Water Hall Group plc, carry a fixed interest rate of 7% per annum and are convertible at a conversion price of 8p into ordinary shares of 1p each at any time prior to maturity. Interest is paid quarterly and the loan notes mature on 10 September 2018."The true PER is about 11.
gretel
16 Mar 2015
WH Ireland have 18p target WH Ireland this morning say Buy with an 18p target, noting as follows:"Prelims demonstrate continued progressPrice 12pTarget price 18pPetards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Transport,Defence and Emergency Services markets. After a challenging few years, actionstaken have both stabilised the business and positioned it for growth, with results in line with our expectations. 2014 proved to be a successful year for the group, securing a number of important contracts across both transport and defence markets with clients such as Siemens, Bombardier and the MOD. Of strategic significance was the five year framework agreement with Siemens announced in June, from which two contracts have already been secured. With the order book remaining at £20m, the visibility for the current financial year and beyond remains robust and the performance in the year to date is reported to be in line with expectations. As such, our PBT/diluted EPS forecasts remain unchanged and we maintain our Buy recommendation and 18p share price target...........Valuation undemanding Based on our forecasts, the shares currently trade on a FY 2015E fully diluted PER of 7.9x and EV/EBITDA of 3.7x. Given the order book visibility, we believe that these multiples significantly undervalue the business. As such, we maintain our Buy recommendation and 18p share price target."
