gretel
12 Dec 2017
Big new contract win for Bombardier Just announced a few minutes ago - Bombardier have won another huge contract to "to supply 333 new rail cars, along with a contract for maintenance work, with a U.K. rail company" - these will be new Aventra trains:[link] Petards have regularly RNS'd contract wins for Bombardier's Aventra trains. There's every reason to believe that this new contract will provide another big bonus for PEG. WH Ireland still forecast 2.1p (fully diluted) EPS for the year about to end, and 2.3p EPS for next year.
gretel
24 Nov 2017
Bargain time imo - P/E of 7.8 Bargain time here - crazy sell prices being taken yesterday on the news of the conversion of the convertibles.. This dilution has been known about for some years, and is already accounted for.WH Ireland forecast 2.1p fully diluted EPS this year and 2.3p EPS next year.To emphasise, that's FULLY DILUTED.No convertible holder is likely to be selling at these prices, or anything like them.A P/E of 7.8 is just far too low considering the growth prospects.
gretel
14 Nov 2017
Re: Chelverton Growth Trust buying more Bouncing nicely today after a 100,000 buy at 21.9p.
gretel
09 Nov 2017
Chelverton Growth Trust buying more From the rather successful Chelverton Growth Trust's results yesterday - having top-sliced PEG at the peak (which may be largely the reason for the share price fall from the top given PEG's tiny £8.5m m/cap), they've been buying back again more recently.They now have 10.3% of their portfolio in PEG:[link] holding in Petards plc was reduced as the share price moved up very sharply and then towards the end of the year the holding was modestly added to at much lower prices despite very positive interim results. Petards plc supplies sophisticated products to the rail industry and is building a very large order book to be delivered over the next two to three years."
gretel
06 Nov 2017
Huge HS2 potential From the FT - five firms have just been shortlisted for a huge £2.75 billion HS2 contract.PEG already work with four of the five, and even the fifith - Patentes Talgo - recently announced UK localisation plans to build a production facility here.....with a localised supply chain:"Thursday 2 November 2017HS2 names Bombardier and Alstom among five shortlisted firms vying for £2.75bn trains contractHS2 has named its shortlist of firms in the race to win a £2.75bn contract to deliver trains reaching up to 225mph for the railway linking the capital, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds.The bidders vying for the contract are Alstom Transport, Bombardier Transportation, Hitachi Rail Europe, Patentes Talgo S.L.U and Siemens, and they will now be invited to tender for the contracts which cover the design, build and maintenance of at least 54 trains, in spring 2018."[link] Oct 2017 Talgo unveils localisation plan for the UK, scouts plant locations in Northern EnglandThe company has already visited potential places around Leeds and LiverpoolSpanish train manufacturer Talgo is set to gain a foothold in the United Kingdom rail market and has devised a detailed long-term industrial plan which includes the construction of a plant in the UK and the creation a fully localized supply chain.etc"
gretel
02 Nov 2017
RNS: Chelverton buy above 5% Chelverton Trust are buying and have gone above 5%, with 1.925m shares:[link]
gretel
31 Oct 2017
Looking very good value now imo WH Ireland forecast fully diluted 2.12p EPS this year and 2.31p EPS next year, with a 42p target against the 22.125p share price - almost 100% upside.That's now a P/E of 10.4 falling to 9.6.Given the very positive outlook in the interims and the £1.5m cash (against an £8m m/cap) PEG are looking pretty good value at these levels.
gretel
27 Sep 2017
Re: WHI : Buy with 42p price target Enough time has passed since publication to post WH Ireland's full post-interims views.They see 2.12p EPS this year rising to 2.31p EPS next year. At 25.25p that's a forward fully diluted P/E of only 10.9 now, and an adjusted EV/EBITDA of less than 6. The order book has increased by 20% to £24m since the start of the year, giving excellent forward visibility:"Petards*Interims illustrate good progress; order book +20%Petards supplies advanced security and surveillance systems to the Transport, Defence and Emergency Services markets. H1 2017A results demonstrate a creditable performance, with growth in Transport and Emergency Services more than making up for a reduction in Defence sales. The order book has increased by 20% since the beginning of the year to £24m, providing excellent visibility over the next 18 months, including £8m order coverage for H2 2017E. Following the results, we have left our revenue and profitability forecasts unchanged, whilst reducing our year-end net cash expectation to reflect the increase in working capital and higher capex in the year. We maintain our Buy recommendation and 42p share price target.H1 2017A revenue increased by 8.1% to £8.0m, reflecting good performances in Transport, which accounted for almost two thirds of Group revenue, and Emergency Services, offset by lower activity in Defence, albeit with the latter ending the period strongly. The gross margin moved 340bps higher to 38.6%, this reflecting the fact that two of the six major eyeTrain contracts were nearing completion. Administration costs increased by £432k, in part reflecting a full period of costs from QRO, along with higher depreciation and amortisation following increased investment. PBT of £503k was 5.9% ahead of the prior six month period, with diluted EPS moving 3.2% higher to 0.98p. The Group ended the period with a net cash position of £33k (FY 2016A £0.8m), reflecting an increase of £1.1m in working capital and total capex of £585k, principally relating to three major eyeTrain orders. Management expects to see positive cashflows from these eyeTrain contracts in H2 2018E.The order book is reported to have increased by 20% to £24m as at 30 June, with eyeTrain accounting for more than 75% of this and including Stadler Bussnang AG on the list of customers for the first time. H2 2017E order coverage presently stands at £8m, with approaching £11m secured for FY 2018E.On the back of the results, we have left our revenue and profitability forecasts unchanged. However, given the anticipated working capital and capex requirements, we have reduced our year-end net cash forecast by £0.9m to £0.3m before expecting to see an improvement in H2 2018E. The shares currently trade on a FY 2017E fully diluted adjusted PER of 13.8x and adjusted EV/EBITDA of 6.0x. Given the level of secured work, in addition to the pipeline of opportunities, we believe that these multiples continue to undervalue the business."
gretel
12 Sep 2017
WHI : Buy with 42p price target WHI say Buy today, with a 42p price target.They see 2.12p EPS this year rising to 2.31p EPS next year. That's a forward fully diluted P/E of only 11.7 now, and an adjusted EV/EBITDA of less than 6.They point out that the order book has increased by 20% to £24m since the start of the year, giving excellent forward visibility.A few early profit-takers, but every reason to hold for a further re-rating imho.
gretel
12 Sep 2017
Promising H1 results today Sound H1 results, with prospects good across all 3 divisions and a particularly optimistic outlook:"It is encouraging that we are continuing to see a flow of new opportunities across all of the Group's target markets with a particular emphasis on the UK rail market which continues to generate a good level of potential new business.The results for the first half of the year and a strong order book that includes almost £8 million of revenues scheduled for delivery in the second half of 2017 and nearly £11m for 2018 providing good support for the current year and a foundation for 2018.Against this backdrop and on-going customer discussions for new projects, the Board continues to be confident about the Group's future prospects."This section also reads very well:"Several of the new orders for eyeTrain systems have embodied requirements for additional functionality such as automatic selective door opening (ASDO) and driver only operation (DOO) which materially increases the software content of our systems. This is becoming increasingly essential for train operating companies to increase capacity and efficiency within rail networks. Consequently, eyeTrain is establishing itself as a core system for train operators in addition to its role in security, surveillance and passenger and train safety."
gretel
24 Aug 2017
Moving up 2 days in a row yesterday and today. Good to see a 52k buy yesterday cause a decent tick up.Last year's interims were on 7th September - so hopefully only 2 weeks to go.Given the strong AGM statement and subsequent contract wins, I'm pretty sure the H1 numbers and outlook will be good.
gretel
14 Jul 2017
Re: Nice rise today - and sector expansion Re the CAF factory expansion news story, it's worth noting that CAF are already an existing customer of PEG's:[link]
gretel
14 Jul 2017
Nice rise today - and sector expansion I wonder if it's partly prompted by this news story today:[link] are opening a new £30m train building factory - more evidence of the boom in this sector:Extract:"Spanish infrastructure firm Sacyr also unveiled plans for a new office in London.Richard Garner, CAF’s UK director, said it planned to increase its work in the UK, where it has more than £800million in contracts, at a time of huge development in the industry.CAF is looking at contracts on the new HS2 high-speed line, having worked for major projects and companies including Heathrow Express, Northern Ireland Railways, Arriva Rail North and FirstGroup.On Wednesday, CAF announced it was buying the Nottingham engineering consultancy BWB Consulting, to help with expansion plans."
gretel
05 Jul 2017
New Hybridan note on PEG Hybridan have issued a new 6 page report on PEG, which concludes as follows FYI:"Yesterday's new business wins for the defence division, from both a Government agency and a major equipment supplier is a pleasing uptick for a division which was reported to have had a relatively slow Q1. The rail division by contrast has already announced new business wins of over £7m since the year end.Following a terrific performance in the shares, they have paused for breath somewhat over the last month, down 6.8% and are some 19% below their year high of 38.5p. We certainly see scope for the shares to break back through this level and are confident that our full year expectations will be met.At current levels, the shares are on a fully diluted current year fully diluted PE of 14.8x. As at 31 March, the order book was £21m with £13m scheduled for delivery this year. Yesterday's orders serve to further underpin our forecasts for 2017 and to establish a foundation for further growth in 2018. The Company has net cash and as such is on an EV/EBITDA multiple of just over 5x."
gretel
04 Jul 2017
RNS : £2m of contract wins £2m of contract wins for the Defence division - including £1.5m of new contracts and a £0.5m renewal.These fall almost entirely into 2018, thus further guaranteeing a considerable portion of next year's forecast revenues.And it's great to see the Defence division stepping up and winning more business, diversifying PEG away from reliance on Rail:[link]
