CoolHandLuke_1
02 Dec 2014
Re: Tender offer Hi Casper,thanks for this - a copy of your spreadsheet would be great. My email address is [email protected] regardsCHL1
casper72
01 Dec 2014
Re: Tender offer HiPEBI issued a balance sheet to end September that provides the starting figures.[link] can track changes to the value in the Magna Biopharma fund here.[link] gives you the day to day value of the distribution via the buyback.You then have the balance of listed and unlisted shares that make up the remainder of PEBI's value. The only disclosed investments are Summit and Plethora, which make up about 80% of the total.I've tracked the discount to NAV off and on through the summer. Happy to share my spreadsheet if you pm me with an email address.
CoolHandLuke_1
28 Nov 2014
Re: Tender offer Casper,thanks for your analysis. Where are you accessing the detailed numbers discussed above - I would be interested in cross-checking?CHL1
casper72
28 Nov 2014
Tender offer I read the announcement today as essentially saying:"we will buy back shares from existing shareholders and cancel them, using money from the Magna Fund".no details on price, but its fairly easy to work out the overall picture.The Magna fund value is currently about 9.6p/PEBI share, so the distribution will, after costs, deliver equivalent value to each shareholder. Lets assume that they decide to buy back 1 share for every 2 shares owned. - you get back 9.6p/share (capital gains as its a share redemption, rather than dividend, but think of it as a dividend)- total value of PEBI drops by 9.6p/share, leaving a balance sheet value of 5.8p remaining, half of this being holdings in listed shares, half unlisted- the shares in issue halve from today, so the net asset value per share doubles back up to 11.6p/shareThat means that the market is effectively discounting the remaining PEBI investments by 80% (difference between current offer of 10.5p share and the 9.6p distribution = 0.9p, vs. balance sheet value of 5.8p/share prior to share redemption).This seems like a material discount to me. The only complication will be the fact that PEBI will be so small at the end of this process that I don't think that it will be economically viable in the long run (would only have a market cap of £1.8m).Welcome views on the maths and other risks - I flagged that this was a good opportunity a while back - seems to be even more so now.
