Gooffy
24 Oct 2017
Re: goodwill danger?? Found it in last accounts.The cash flow is good tho and more than covers dividend in addition debt has reduced and share buy back plus director buying.Interesting point though good will has a value unless you go bust, I don't think Pendragon is going bust on a earnings per share basis it's worth more..comments welocme please
Gooffy
24 Oct 2017
Re: goodwill danger?? Where is this figure from please searched interim accounts and goodwill is 0
Gooffy
24 Oct 2017
Brexit effect Reflecting on latest RNSIt looks like the high pound is costing the franchises more money and reducing profits hence the comment on reviewing franchisesI wonder if EU will realise it's stupidity when Citreon, BMW and other franchises start closing.This is why pendragon is switching to second hand and service, there IT side is doing well, recently signed a deal with Hyundai.60 million is 10 million less than liberium quoted, less share buy backs or debt reduction would have meant the same profit so not sure why a big downgrade.Key statement is profit is expected to rise 2018 so whether to average down is the question, need to visit some sites and see what is happening there.Think this is oversold myself especially as directors bought at 30p
mildmouth
24 Oct 2017
goodwill danger PDG's statement has brought sharply back into focus that of their net worth of £418 million no less than £365 million is represented by goodwill. Accounting standards these days allow goodwill to be preserved on the balance sheet based (IMHO) on far too subjective tests, thereby flattering profits.Once franchises start to be seen as a burden rather than an asset (as can happen in a downturn and, from the statement, would appear already to be happening in certain cases)the potential for goodwill write-offs is huge.my rough calculation the net tangible asset per share is £53m divided by 1421 million shares, so 3.7p per share. That provides very little support to the share price about 6 times higher even now.
Mister Ed
24 Oct 2017
Broker Downgrade Liberium downgrade to hold (buy), target 25p (43p - Aug.01).The wisdom of brokers, eh?Expect the other sector players to announce similar warnings before year end. They are all on similar ratings. PDG looked a bit rich before the selloff. The next 18-24 months could see quite a shake-out. Lookers and Vertu are acquisitive, funded and prepared to buy the right sites. But I think the sales slowdown could be drawn out with Brexit torture so investors will need to show some patience. The companies which have repositioned more successfully to used and after sales will be the eventual winners. I note VTU has not been hit so hard this week.
Yee Wo
24 Oct 2017
Re: odder than odd “Takeover??”. The question is though, Who? Mr Finn et al are probably now of an age we’re the Golf Course has huge appeal, the balance sheet of The Dragon has been being tidied up nicely over the last few years. I just can’t see what assets PDG has which would be of appeal to any of the large scale existing operators in the UK! Interestingly yesterday’s news pushed Inchcape shares below 800p for a few hours yesterday which does strike me as a Buy. (Disclosure : I’m a Long Term Holder of Inchcape). If Pendragon stays at this price for any length of time it may become a HY investors plaything?
Gooffy
23 Oct 2017
odder than odd NEDs purchase at 30pShare buy back as wellShares managed downTakeover??
seadoc
23 Oct 2017
Re: odd More odd that there was an instant fall of 17% and rock stable thereafter. I bought these at 138p in 2000 and sold out at 222p (old money 10 for 1?) about 18/12 months later. I was a bit gobsmacked as they rose to £10, or about x5 what I sold for. Been on watch list ever since but as one I have sold and for my information and education. Has been very sensitive to news over last 15yrs and in some way a leading indicator. There have been a lot of "value" posts on all the motor companies and buy recommendations, based on holding values of the sites. I am not sure how much of their property is leased, nor length of leases but I see this as being the problem. I am looking for a few shorts (only 1.6% as of a couple of days ago) . Regards,Seadoc
Gooffy
23 Oct 2017
odd Perhaps less debt reductions and no buybacks might help
Hardboy
23 Oct 2017
IMS Just had a quick scan through the IMS. Doesn't look great but they still seem positive on the future. It sounds like new car sales are dropping off a cliff, which doesn't surprise me, What surprises me is it hasn't happened earlier. With the £ weakness the price of new cars must go up or the margins down; but I think there is also a lot of uncertainty in the market about future legislation - against diesel cars and pro electric (before they are a real viable alternative) - and distrust of the manufacturers after the VW scandal. The announced strategy is interesting - certainly committing themselves more and more to the UK 2nd hand car market. I'm not sure how much the 2nd hand car market is related to the new business. I have always thought that people wanting to buy 2nd hand cars may have a preference for buying them from car sale franchises which are that brand's main dealer, but that could be a misconception. Their US strategy is intriguing too. I would have thought that market offers greater growth potential than the UK, but they seem to be ignoring it, temporarily at least. The good thing is they think this year's reduction in profits is a temporary blip and growth will be back next year.£60m PTP is a reduction, which is not good, but it would mean an EPS of around 3.1, which still puts the shares on a PE of under 10, which is cheap, and there is no talk of reducing the dividend, which will still be well covered (more than twice) and offer a yield of 5% (and of course they may increase it to send a message of their confidence in the future) And despite a poor quarter, they have significantly reduced net debt levels,. which is good news. Although the share price may take a small dive today - after all it is a profit warning - the shares still look cheap, and the BoD seem optimistic on a 5+ year basis, so a dip today may be a buying opportunity.
tommytomata
17 Aug 2017
lookers It's a bit of a mixed message re Lookers. Interview in Glasgow Herald I think all car dealers will be a bit becalmed for a good while.
Hardboy
16 Aug 2017
Car Market Good figures from Lookers this morning, and fairly upbeat view of the future. Should help.
Hardboy
01 Aug 2017
Interims Only had a very quick glance through them, but they seem good. Nice progress on sales, profits & dividend. Used car sales are v impressive, but offset by a decline in new car sales. Debt is up, but still at manageable levels. I bought a new (10 months old) car in July from a large dealership, and was concerned when they told me activity in new and used cars had really dropped off in recent weeks. it's good to see this is not reflected in Pendragon's announcement. At current prices the full year indications are this will be paying a very well covered yield well over 5% & has a PE under 6. That is ridiculously cheap.
Hardboy
14 Jun 2017
CEO Selling 3.5m shares. I don't like that, but he still has 19m so he probably just needs a bit of cash.
Hardboy
08 Mar 2017
Lookers Produced some good results this morning and seemed confident about the outlook for the market.
