defender2084
12 Mar 2018
Gold price artificially suppressed? Due to massive short selling of paper contracts, apparently.According to some the ‘real’ price ie for buying in bulk, is at least $2000/ounce.DYOR but these shares are highly geared to a rise in the gold price.def ‘84
casabanker
10 Mar 2018
Re: Gavster! its me! Probably a wise move, Johan.Casa.
Johandesilva
09 Mar 2018
Gavster! its me! Historically this has been our lucky gold stock. Having sold up I lost all the gains here on the other gold stocks since then. The current price of PAF is tempting me back into gold but I am strictly steering clear of the tiddlers!
sasa43
09 Mar 2018
Re: FTAO casa/sasa... Hi casa - a realistic appraisal, as usual...Yes, the new mine and the tailings will obviously reduce the overall AISC from the very high $1286 per oz. as mentioned in the operational update issued last week, which I thought was pretty dismal on most metrics overall - for me, anyway. However, allowing for these benefits (impressive grades but over short / narrow strike data so far) my guesstimate for the AISC for this year would be to come in just shy of some $1000 per oz , given the relatively short contributory period involved. Better, obviously but more 'jam tomorrow', from next year onwards, if all goes well, I'd say.In the meantime, there are the strike risks to be overcome and the new Government's passing of a highly contentious 'asset seizure without compensation' law, where appropriate, being introduced; that might not affect PAF directly but it hardly inspires confidence in my book and I'm very wary when I read that sort of thing...Don't really know the new management's record, post Jan Nelson and I'm relatively out of touch with PAF generally, as I mentioned earlier. However, several brokers' forecasts are positive / upbeat about the outlook, so that's encouraging and thus I hope your renewed 'plunge' works out well for you - sasa.
casabanker
09 Mar 2018
Re: FTAO casa/sasa... I trust the management enough to have bought shares in PAF, yes. However, I have bought precious metal mining shares over a decent length of time to realise that a good result is not always guaranteed. There are lots of moving parts that are out of control of the Company's management such as currency values, mining difficulties, political interference, ore quality, staff issues...need I go on? PAF has had its fair share of these difficulties. Hopefully, a more tranquil business environment lies ahead particularly with the development and opening of the new mine.Casa.
defender2084
09 Mar 2018
Re: FTAO casa/sasa... So you don’t trust what they’re saying about Elikhulu ?
sasa43
09 Mar 2018
Re: FTAO casa/sasa... Hi casa - yes, I was in this until a couple of years ago (sold at 17p I see from my records after a few years holding it) but I'm not that convinced that the 'sunny uplands' are yet looming into view. I'll study it a bit more when I have the time but for now...Could well be wrong, of course and I'm less familiar with it than hitherto, I'll readily admit.Your FXPO find at the time was clearly 'the one that got away' unfortunately but SQZ might emulate some of that, given the very cheap stats applicable, especially now. I like the debt - free balance sheet with monthly income simply accruing, meanwhile - sasa.
casabanker
08 Mar 2018
Re: FTAO casa/sasa... Thanks for your input, sasa. I didn't know that you had invested here in the past. I bought PAF about a couple of years ago at around 17p but hightailed it at 13p due to Zuma's economic ruination of the SA economy and the restrictions placed on miners which effectively made it difficult for them to turn a profit. Yes, PAF much like many other Companies in SA have had labour problems which has effectively taken the sp down from 13 to under 8p. Hopefully these issues are behind them now together with a more business friendly political climate. I admit that I was over excited about the progress with a new mine opening with excellent proved up resources and a history of good production before the Zuma hiatus.The whole issue does depend on the actual gold extraction results against figures estimated as always with small miners. It looks good but atm, it's only a story.As you can see, I have bought some shares but the house is still safe and with any luck, in spite of the many moving parts, a good result might see a doubling of the sp.A comment on a totally unrelated issue is about FXPO. I looked at this steel maker at the height of the war in Ukraine. The sp dropped to 20p and I considered briefly whether to buy a small stake. Bear in mind that FXPO is domiciled in the Eastern part of Ukraine so effectively governed by proxy by Russia but who knows, so I backed off. No proper government and demand for steel at a low ebb. I looked at the sp yesterday and it stands at over 300. I know it's unrelated but a producing gold miner with a future producing gold, not steel in a (hopefully) better politically free country ought to be able to emulate FXPO but probably not by 15 times lol.Casa.
Thedarkkn1ght
08 Mar 2018
sasa Have you had a look at Elikhulu which starts in August?50K at AISC of $650Have a look at the AISC of the tailings projects first (>100K total production) then ask whether the model is any good.
sasa43
07 Mar 2018
FTAO casa... Hi casa - been having another look at this after our recent chat, fwiw...What do you think the current AISC is today? Seems a near marginal producer right now (great if AU turns sharply higher, of course but very costly if it doesn't). Been looking at the latest report and the figs look uninspiring to me, unless I've missed quite a few things.Is Evander a problem now? That was their big 'coup' a while ago (after Jan Nelson moved on) and even Barberton seems rather problematic. Also, union squabbles recurring? Back in the day, PAF was almost invariably 'insulated' from strikes because they were inclined to pay 'over the odds to keep the peace' - a policy which Jan adhered to throughout his tenure (when I held a decent position in these) and it worked. But now with union talks scheduled to avoid strike action? Dunno, about the current appeal even now, I have to say and I prefer the lower AISC producers to avoid negative gearing risks, as you know. Just my initial take after a long absence but I could well be mis-reading the present situation, 'cos I know you like sound situations and good dividend payers when you come across them (which this certainly is right now) but hope it's not a yield trap - sasa.
casabanker
05 Mar 2018
Re: Bought in today Hello defender,Millionaires? Could we be that lucky? I'd settle for a 50 bagger lol. In reality, I will be very pleased if PAF performs well and that goes for the South African government too. If PAF ramps up production and pays a decent dividend, I think that will be sufficient for 2018. If all goes well then next year may be bubbly time.Casa.
defender2084
05 Mar 2018
Re: Bought in today So have I, but slightly cheaper 😀At some point the market will have to notice Elikhulu.This time next year we’ll be millionaires!def ‘84
casabanker
05 Mar 2018
Bought in today PAF looks about the most sure fire bet that you will find currently although I do like SQZ too, a North Sea gas and oil play with no debt. I like PAF for its low cost production, the fact that it's a gold miner with an increasing amount of high quality ore and it yields a good dividend that is likely to increase too. South Africa has been a stable country with excellent natural resources and the new government looks like it is returning to proper recognised international standards of governance and economic stability. It relies heavily on commodities for income so I expect the new government to encourage Companies such as PAF to increase output rather than suppress and over tax them as experienced under the previous regime. I have bought some PAF shares this morning for a price of just over 7.7p including dealing costs.Casa.
Thedarkkn1ght
04 Mar 2018
P/E 3 with Elikhulu Targeting EPS of 2.5p-3p in the next year
casabanker
04 Mar 2018
Re: RNS Strong Operations Update This is excellent news. I held PAF last year but sold out when Zuma made it impossible for the Company to make a profit. Now that he is gone and Ramaphosa is seriously tackling corruption and ousting Zuma's cronies, I have been watching PAF's reaction. I didn't know they were reporting last Friday and I hope I will not miss any spike up in the sp but I intend to buy in on Monday morning. It may not be plain sailing for PAF but it certainly looks like the storm clouds have lifted for PAF and thankfully for South Africa. Casa.
