gallant02
18 Sep 2017
Re: golden hedge The sp fall and general comment represents an over-reaction in my view. There are limitations to what hedging they can take out and fundamentally they run some of the most efficient plants in India. Load factors continue to improve, tariffs are due to rise and the coal price will fall.I accept their rating will be affected medium term but a forward p/e of c.3.5x is ridiculous given the medium term prospects. Their market cap is lower than when they first floated with just an idea, whereas they are now a c£40m pre-tax business so must be ripe for takeover or eventual recovery. Darkest before dawn as they say....
spankaroo
18 Sep 2017
Re: golden hedge 305020 - I totally blame the management. Trading update 31 May 2017 gave no indication that it was at it was completely un-hedged and it was at the mercy of future roller coaster coal prices. What an utterly moronic way of running a business. Running this sort of business is relatively simple - agree a price and length of contract; hedge the profit for the contract period; once the contract comes to an end repeat. I made an investment decision based on what Gupta put out in that trading statement, which gave me comfort for 2018 projections. He isn't fit to run the business.
thirty fifty twenty
15 Sep 2017
Re: golden hedge I am less angry than some posts on here...or indeed anything angry at myself!the coal price has been in a steady downtrend for several years with very low volatility,and was forecast by industry experts and by the futures market to continue on that trend.Then the Chinese Gvt makes an unexpected policy decision and the price "spikes"OPG were hedged to a degree and in effect this has caused me to be lazy as an investor.the OPG share price did not initially react to the large rise in the Coal price because there were hedged, but the spike lasted longer than expected and now they have had to 'come clean' (excuse the pun!).So, the company ahs many failings, but I was aware of those, and the risks with a majority dominant controlling shareholder but thought I had them priced in, but I was not monitoring the price of their underlying cost i.e. coal. If I had then the recent share price fall could have been very easily avoided. So , yes I am angry, but I take full responsibility that my lazy investing has cost me to lose value on OPG. In this instance I am now actually glad to have a controlling dominant shareholder, as this might force his hand. I've always thought that OPG would be worth much, much more to a large Power conglomerate than be by itself. The finance cost would be lower, the operational risk would be diversified, and the industry risk would be spread between coal and renewables in a way appropriate to the Indian economy - so the value of OPG to a larger power concern would be much much higher than the value given to it by the stock market - recent examples of the same would be the heavily geaered GKO (take over premium 150%), and INB last year take over premium 130%). I believe that previously when there was some chance of success Gutpe would have been tempted to 'go it alone' - now that he realises the risks the business is exposed to he might well be tempted to sell out and start again - this time in renewables. No dobt there would be a premium for the equity and he could get a nice little earner as a condition so that the retun he achevies would in effect be higherh than the average shareholder. Its not great but it is the way the world works and it is the risk buying shares which are 60% held by some-one else.So despite the loss, from here the future is bright. They have no problems with Cash Flow (unless coal price rises further) so they will come through this, they may sell out, of the coal price may fall back down. For me I have only 25p to lose now and a good 50p to gain ... it is still a risk investment and i'm not brave enough to buy more yet but i'm watching, and watching the coal price, as there will be a good return to be had here (very likely) at some point relatively soon.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLOPG is in my portfolio - sadly 
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spankaroo
15 Sep 2017
Re: Midas tip in Sunday Mail I wish you the best of luck. Gupta has messed up really badly here and what on earth were the non-ex doing! Gupta should go, but he won't and minority shareholders can expect nothing from the cardboard cutout board. I hope Gupta has learnt his lesson and I hope what he has done doesn't lead to the collapse of the Group. He really has to get someone in to run it at an operational level, otherwise shareholders will be left with nothing.The whole episode is really quite shocking and institutional investors won't be rushing in to mop up stock from the queue of sellers IMHO
Turbo Charge
07 Sep 2017
Re: Midas tip in Sunday Mail Thought I'd give you some company, I also bought some @ 26 a few days ago...
Ripley94
05 Sep 2017
Re: Midas tip in Sunday Mail Picked some more up @ 26p .... Had a price of 28.5p noted not sure what i set limit buy at now !
king sinbad
04 Sep 2017
Re: Stand down Gupta... Totally agree spank, surely someone else can do a better job than Gupta for a 1/4 of his salary.£1.3 MILLION for gambling, and loosing shareholder value is a disgrace.
spankaroo
04 Sep 2017
Stand down Gupta... Well down she goes again and the message here goes way beyond its inability to properly hedge. Investors just don't believe the company is being run properly. I have just changed my electricity supplier and have signed a 24mth contract. Eron will lump my agreement and others for this particular promotion and will lock in its profit and forward hedge. OPG on the other hand just leaves it open, in some divine belief it knows better than the rest of the commodity market and the price of coal will work in its favour. Doh. That's just gambling! I have met the management and I ashamed to say I trusted them. Now, until confidence is restored ie recruit someone who knows what they are doing, this could easily go sub 20p
Ripley94
01 Sep 2017
Re: Rigged Thanks for explanation Winning streak.Notice i have missed an e on the end of not ( note ) in my last post a little time ago..
Ripley94
01 Sep 2017
Re: Midas tip in Sunday Mail Topped up again @ 30.5p although i have been advised not to buy into downtrend.We will see in time. I not the post above this link by spankaroo has a heading "Bottom picking"
winningstreak
01 Sep 2017
Re: Rigged Banman - Not rigged. Market makers are the 'go-between' doing the actual buying and selling of the shares. If they are confronted with more sellers than buyers or anticipate such situation, then they drop the price, and vice-versa raise the price when they see more buyers coming onto the scene. I daresay they got stung buying up sharesearly on the bad news day when the drop was not yet so large, so don't blame themfor not stocking up.ws
banman
31 Aug 2017
Rigged Yesterday, OPG had all sells in the first 30 min of about 400k, so those who allegedly know what they are doing, dropped their sp by 26%.Today in the first hour, we see over 600k shares trade of which 90% are buys, so do they up the sp by 26%?,,,,,,,, do they foook, they drop it another 0.4%If this system is not rigged, then your dad is your mum.
winningstreak
31 Aug 2017
Re: at 44p i think its a lull Spakaroo - I agree, looks like management is not on the ball, but busyblundering into contracts that can only pay when the price of coal is low.I apologize for my earlier enthusiasm for this company. I was fooled by high EPS forecasts /anticipation.ws
spankaroo
31 Aug 2017
Re: at 44p i think its a lull I have just had a look at Newcastle Coal Futures chart and back Nov 2016 it was over 110, so I can only conclude past favourable forward ended for it full yr ending 31st Mar 2017 and it has been left buying coal at uneconomical prices. This makes the business model very risky, especially as it has a huge debt mountain to maintain. I notice in its last trading update in May it thought coal was expected to fall - it called it wrong and shareholders are paying the price. So if it can buy at 60-70 it can make good profits and at todays prices virtually nothing. It can't even pass costs on quickly. This is not how to run a sustainable power generation project, so under current ownership, its uninvestable, especially with debt repayments and interest charges hanging over it.
David Global
31 Aug 2017
Re: at 44p i think its a lull Large volumes in the first 30 minutes of trading today, lots of buying, not much selling at the moment. It appears people think the news is now proced in and we are at a bargain price.
