Jdawg2k
05 May 2015
I'll just hold on to mine , might come good in the next 10 years 😞
TX2
05 May 2015
Re: Up 60% ! AL,the majority owner are unlikely to be interested in selling Optare,so any tax loss is only of value if and when Optare makes a profit.In theory they could save £10m in tax,if the company makes a profit,but it could be over a 20 year time scale.You need to discount the value of this saving.Fairly marginal value.My understanding was when AL made their rescue funding of Optare a few years ago;they were given the right to use any Optare designs,r&d etc without payment to Optare elsewhere in the AL group.So although they are presently supporting Optare they may be gaining from using Optare designs elsewhere in the group.So Optare has an additional value to AL that is not available to minority shareholders.Optare is not a stand alone business so in effect any outside shareholder is a minority shareholder in a small part of a larger group.
stockman123
04 May 2015
Re: Up 60% ! Interesting post TX2I too have held stocks that have been delisted for them to come very good a few months later.Why do you think this company has been going so long with this negative equity?Do you think as another poster mentioned that the tax losses are worth anything for a buyer?
BOWOOD
01 May 2015
Re: Up 60% ! OPE has no chance to survive without AL. It is their company and without their finance there is no future.The balance sheet is full of debt and all the time there is an operating loss things will get worse. It will be essential to refinance to prop up losses and support R&D. If ant PI can get 0.05p now it is worth taking IMO
axel27
01 May 2015
Re: Up 60% ! TX2,Let's look at the balance sheet....I am embarrased to say I havn't looked at it recently.I'm still happy to pay £100k for 10%, realising that I may need to find another £1-2m or so fund the business going forward. And there we agree, "as it will be drowned out by the new funds" - and AIM just is not delivering new equity from the existing shareholder base and what happens is someone steps in and PIs get drowned out...and I am looking at March 2014, showing MINUS £8.8m.Then Goodwill £8.5m - difficult to understand valuation methodology, but could increase or decreaseIntangibles £8.3m - taken R&D assets and other stuff, likely to be worsePropert plant - £3m - look normal stuff usedInventories - £12m - work in progress, as ongoing business it is held at cost, so if gross margin on sales was 30% may be £3m in value to an on-going businessDebtors - they are owed £8m, about 60 days, fineThen Lost £3m on operations, paid £1m interest.It is a £56m revenue business. It is presumably still recovering (and that is your main risk)AND they have £56m in retained losses, so big tax benefit here as they won't be paying corporation tax at 20% or so (so its worth £10m).Inventory -
TX2
01 May 2015
Re: Up 60% ! The problem for speculative buyers in Optare who might buy now for a nominal price hoping that in the future Ashok might buy them out,and some appear to be doing so, is that all the equity including that owned by Ashok appears worthless.Essentially Optare has negative shareholder assets of around £11m or if we exclude intangibles over £30m;has lost around £60m in recent years and is still loss making.It is financed by its bankers who are only providing facilities because Ashok has guaranteed them.The probability is that sometime in the future Ashok will have to refinance Optare and it is difficult to see how any of the present equity capital has any value as it will be drowned out by the new funds.I have an interest in a couple of previously listed AIM companies.Norman Hay Plc,a chemicals company and Baqus Group PLc,a quantity surveyors & building services company,both bought shortly before delisting and both have turned out to be excellent purchases.But both had & have very significant net assets,are profitable and pay dividends.I have had opportunities to sell shares in both companies at a substantially higher price but to date declined.It is difficult to see potential here I feel .
axel27
01 May 2015
Re: Up 60% ! Bowood,I have invested in non listed "tech" companies and I agree that having one shareholder with more than 75% control can be problematic. However Company Law provides some protections.The question is whether one thinks that Optare is worth more or less than the market cap, which stands at 2.2bn shares times 0.05p or £1.1m. Do you know, I'd be happy to take a punt at owning 10% of Optare at that price....even better is I could get entrepreneurs or EIS reliefs......I have some expereince of cleantech transport start-ups and OK there is debt, so long as one is prepared and allowed to match Ashcock's cash if Ashcock attempt to dilute. I hope Optare do well, there is considerable emphasis on cleantech mass transport in the developing world, mainly driven by air quality (polution) in cities. Optare and Ascock will no doubt make money. We have several other bus manufacturers in the UK, mostly now in private hands.For me the learning and this is being re-inforced by other companies, is that AIM is not suited to many companies with small market caps investing in new products. I am seeing too many loses as the companies are not raising equity from the shareholders and turning to intermediaries or going private (or just going under, but I accept that risk). I'm not happy finding others are making money from companies I back when this type of activity happens....Right who wants to find me that 10% of Optare for £110k.....?!A
Jdawg2k
30 Apr 2015
There's no point in cashing my holding, after today's bloodbath. Have we lost everything do think the master plan is Al getting a UK foothold. Don't really know what to think after today , so excuse my naivety
BOWOOD
30 Apr 2015
Re: Up 60% ! Problem is there will be no market and the time will come when OPE will make an offer for the shares they don't own at a price they dictate - a take it or leave it situation. GL but I would like to have any cash now.
axel27
30 Apr 2015
Re: Up 60% ! Yes. It is not good "exit" and an open offer would seem better.I though there was a 21 day notice period for a general meeting unless they are going the written method...IMy shares are in a nominee account (ISA). I would continue to hold the shares as the market price is way below what I recard as fair company valuation but I expect I will become a (distressed) seller.regards A
BOWOOD
30 Apr 2015
Re: Up 60% ! This is a very poor way of exit for investors. The company must have known what they were going to do several weeks ago and an offer for the stock not owned by them at say 0.20p would have been a more acceptable end. This would have been accepted by all PIs and OPE would have stopped all of their on going costs.
BOWOOD
30 Apr 2015
Re: Up 60% ! I suspect that AL will be taking all stock held by the market at the end of the day thus increasing their holding. Within a year or so they will mop up the balance at about 0.5p
city watcher
30 Apr 2015
Re: Up 60% ! Ha Ha - you were spot on with this post, wish I had listened to you. Owing to certificated dealing I have just - and only just ended up with a pint of real ale with my proceeds by selling today. You win some and you lose some is what I say - so not even enough to get pissed. (33k sold) - good riddance to them!
Jdawg2k
30 Apr 2015
AL will scoop this all up for peanuts , not that it was worth more than that.
Jdawg2k
30 Apr 2015
A
