The Specialist
04 Jun 2015
CD4 to commercialise in 2015 IF CD4 is commercialised in 2015 which is likely if the field tests proceed as expected, then the stock should get to the 40-50p band within 12 months. However given the allergies portfolio a take out around the 100p is a more realistic level within 24 months. Nearly a four bagger from here is not bad. Adding more to my holding here. Started buying around the 13p level and see huge upside here.
mnbvvvvvvvvvvvcxz
01 Jun 2015
newsflow Whilst welcoming the news, this stock had a long way to go it was 35p a few years ago since then the original holders have been much diluted. The number of shares in issue then was 30,000,000 whereas now it's 80,000,000 and apart from the acquisition of Joachim Ganzer GmbH not much growth.Omega are closer than ever to commercialisation but I still believe a big company will take them out because of the valution and a nearly marketable developed product that represents boly on profits. Immuno Diagnostic Systems are a possibilty because of the existing tie up. IDS also need to bolster their revenues a bolt on might do this.
pharmaspecialist
01 Jun 2015
Re: AS expected - CD4 - Good news - TOwards ... Yes, I would agree with you Specialist. It would appear that the share price anticipated that good news was going to be released into the market. It must be difficult to stop insider dealing when some products are being tested outside the company but I think this is an area the company needs to look at. Also agree with the positive sentiment on long term prospects, although there could still be a few hitches along the way.
The Specialist
01 Jun 2015
Re: AS expected - CD4 - Good news - TOwards ... .... and to top the good news on CD4 further..... and I don't even prescribe significant value here which now looks like I am being too conservative. ONLY UPSIDE ON THIS STOCK - BUY ALL THE WAY TO 50P and enjoy the ride UP."Allergy Development - Allersys® automation updateOur allergy development programme has continued to make progress. We now have 32 allergens that have been optimised to show equivalent performance to the market leading product. Of these, 22 have completed their claim support work. The manufacturing process and recent amendments to the instrument software have been validated for full scale manufacture and we now have commercial quantities for 27 allergens and associated reagents within our inventory which have all passed internal quality control procedures. These allergens will be used in beta evaluations at sites in Spain and Italy, planned in June and July respectively. A preliminary field study comparing the Allersys® system to ThermoFisher ImmunoCAP® using eight allergens was conducted at Udine University Hospital Laboratory, Italy last year. The investigators concluded that the two systems were comparable. The results of the study have recently been accepted for an oral presentation at the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) Annual meeting in Barcelona, 6-10 June 2015."
The Specialist
01 Jun 2015
AS expected - CD4 - Good news - TOwards the 80-100p As expected and highlighted on my May 20 post someone knew that this good news was coming. With the in house manufacturing process now confirmed and scaleable, a positive field validation result (and I expect it to be positive) can result in the company moving in a rapid manner to commercialise the product. The lead time to financials remains 18 months but the market will price at least 30-40% of the cashflow upside on a move to commercial production which means we will see the stock nearer the 40p level on such announcement. I still see the stock approaching 80-100p level if the company meets a potential demand of 7m CD4 units per year. Either way once confirmed we only have UPSIDE here. "Infectious Disease - Visitect® CD4 updateSince the trading update on 15 April 2015, the Company has continued to test devices on a large number of patient samples with the aim of optimising performance and deciding on suitable in-house manufacturing processes. The Company confirms that it has now made three pilot batches of devices, all of which have yielded comparable results and which demonstrate that Visitect® CD4 is capable of meeting the Company's performance design goals in comparison to flow cytometry when tested on HIV positive patients. The Company confirms that its internal investigation phase is now complete as planned. The outcome of this investigation phase has been the selection of in-house manufacturing processes which are scalable and which will now be subject to verification and validation leading to the release of Visitect® CD4 test devices for re-evaluation in the field. We remain very confident of the prospective commercial success of Visitect® CD4 and will provide further updates in due course."
gretel
01 Jun 2015
Excellent update today Looks like a very good update this morning on both CD4 and Allersys.
The Specialist
20 May 2015
Re: Tipped today by Faraday Research I see this stock well north of 80p once CD4 is commercialised. I have highlighted it in previous comments but based on 7m units of production at around £5 per test then the average sector based PE multiples, the stock will be around the 100p level, and that is assuming limited value in the rest of the portfolio. I see only UPSIDE here.
The Specialist
20 May 2015
Re: New Apointment hmmm! The management know the value of CD4 if it is approved for commercialisation. On the basis of 7m unit sales and average sector based PEs the stock would be around 90-100p. Selling it at 30 to 50p is a travesty. I rather hold on and will not subscribe my rather substantial holding as a private investor.
The Specialist
20 May 2015
Re: Remarkable share price rise NOW WITH THE ENGLISH CORRECTED!! I think we will hear even more positive updates on CD4 very soon. When the shares move like this, accompanied with healthy volumes, it is obvious that someone knows something and that it is very likely to be good news. We might hear soon (next few weeks if not earlier) that field tests for CD4 have been positive and all manufacturing variability has been resolved. If CD4 goes in production and assuming a lead time to market and then financials of 18 months then on a growth adjusted PE, it is easy to see the stock around the 90p to 100p. That assumes production of 7m units however. Very happy holder since around 13p and will keep on holding to 100p assuming they are not taken over for a higher price in the interim.
The Specialist
20 May 2015
Re: Remarkable share price rise I think we will here even more positive updates on CD4 very soon. We the shares move like this on quite healthy volumes it is obvious that someone knows something and it is good. We might here that field tests have been positive and all manufacturing variability has been resolved. It CD4 goes in production and assuming a lead time to market and then financials of 18 months then on a growth adjusted PE, it is easy to see the stock around the 90p to 100p. That assumes production of 7m units however. Very happy holder since around 13p and will keep on holding to 100p assuming they are not taken over for a higher price in the interim.
pharmaspecialist
20 May 2015
Remarkable share price rise Remarkably strong share price rise today on no new public news that I am aware of. If anyone knows why, I would be interested to know.
gretel
29 Apr 2015
Tipped today by Faraday Research The Faraday tip has been partly posted elsewhere as follows - and it doesn't even mention the potential of the allergy development programme...."What’s really got our attention is the huge potential of VISITECT and the fact this doesn’t seem to be fully priced in by the market. There are no guarantees as to exactly when it will be launched and we may need to be patient. But when it does finally happen the shares should rise significantly, with a re-rating looking quite likely." "Even with just a return to last year’s high of 31.6p (before the VISITECT trial issues) Omega shares would still offer investors 75% of upside. VISITECT could be a game changer• Commercial launch in sight• More exciting products in the pipeline • Profit ahead of expectations• Newsflow could trigger a re-rating After trials of its revolutionary new HIV testing device were held up last year, shares in Omega Diagnostics pulled backed. The issues causing these problems have been corrected and the device is now on course for commercialisation. We feel this isn’t full priced in and the shares are significantly undervalued."
mnbvvvvvvvvvvvcxz
27 Apr 2015
New Apointment hmmm! Colin King is moving from Axis Shield to Omega this is potentially rather interesting. Axis shield waqs the subject of a hostile takeover a few years ago by Alere (previously Inverness Medical)Alere market a CD4 analyser about which I have posted previously. Visitect would be complimentary to it's already marketed offering. The purchase of Omega would be buttons to Alere which has a turnover of in xs of $3,000,000,000.Previous buyouts by Alere have been a mixture of cash and Alere stock. The alere stock is trading at $50 with a strong dollar. Movement of staff from an Alere company to a take over target takes place a little while before a bid which then brings them basck to the fold.I would expect a takeout price of 30 - 50pence depending on the underlying price. A hadsome profit for recent purchasers.
Koifishman
27 Apr 2015
Re: Very good trading update High prospects of this doing well very soon.
gretel
17 Apr 2015
Very good trading update Excellent trading update in all respects - always good to be surprised on the upside! And that despite currency movements lowering sales by £0.5m too....Looking forward to the upcoming news flow. Positive sentiment could take ODX a long way up from here imo.Here's an interview with the FD.....[link]
