Eagerbeaver66
30 Mar 2015
Re: Results out It's a reasonable buy since
i) the p/e is still below 10, even after the 40% fall in earnings, and (2) it pays a healthy dividend of 5%, which was increased (reflecting a level of confidence in the amount of cover available for dividends, in NAV as well as earnings).(3) They are near the bottom of their long term trading range of 800 - 1200, so should have more upside potential than downside. (4) They have underlying net asset value of 1400+, so give some degree of protection against falling too far. When currency rates accounted for much of the decrease in earnings, I don't think the business is in a bad state, it is just in a difficult environment at the moment. It has a bit of downward momentum, and their location isn't brilliant (or should I say Brazilliant?!) However being near the bottom of its range, they'll probably turn around and recover to 1000+ before too long, so not a bad time to get back on board. And, while I don't think the discount to NAV will unwind very much, it is like buying the earnings on 1400 of assets for just 900. A lot does depend on the state of Brazil, but its a relatively low risk investment with fair dividend and the potential to gain 30% fairly quickly.Incidentally, I think the low turnover is down to some large long-term static holders, so little free float exchanging in the market relative to its capitalization. - and I don't know why you think the spread is large, it only ever seems to be about 1%, so quite modest for a small cap company.
LoadsaDosh2
30 Mar 2015
Re: Results out I am interested in why you rate them as a 'Buy' ? EPS down 40% ! How is that a 'Buy'? There was a little gain on the investment portfolio but the fees are huge:"Investment portfolio up US$2.7 million to US$251.7 million (2013: US$249.0 million) ""In 2014 the investment management fee was US$2.5 million and a US$0.6 million performance fee was payable."So the fees outweighed the gain! Laughable.Plus negative outlook from the horses mouth:"Global growth remains sluggish and substantially below pre-financial crisis levels. The fall in oil prices should boost consumption in developed markets but will negatively impact oil producers. Stronger economic data coming out of the US raises the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates earlier than markets are anticipating resulting in rising US bond yields although bond yields in the euro zone and Japan should remain suppressed by their accommodating monetary policy. We remain positive on the long-term prospects for emerging markets and our portfolio although slowing growth in China, the decline in oil prices and the expectation that the US will raise interest rates earlier than expected may hinder market performance in the short-term."
the julio
25 Mar 2015
Results out Profits down but dividend up by 3 cents.Highlights · Improvement in key operating performance indicators· Reported sales 4% lower at US$633.5 million (2013: US$660.1 million)· Earnings per share for the year of 65.6 cents (2013: 107.1 cents).· Dividend declared increased by 5% to 63 cents per share (2013: 60 cents per share)· Investment portfolio up US$2.7 million to US$251.7 million (2013: US$249.0 million)· Net cash inflow from operating activities for the year of US$105.6 million (2013: US$108.4 million)Brazilian shares have been badly hit in the past few months following a decline in the Real and scandals at Petrobas and Vale.OCN is trading at a discount of 27% to nav and must be a good speculative buy.As always DYOR
LoadsaDosh2
18 Mar 2015
Re: 900p The spread is offputting too. Maybe there is only one market maker for this share; I really don't know though I have come across other shares that rarely seem to trade; strange.
dokp
03 Mar 2015
Re: 900p I was looking at OCN as a recovery play on Brasil although it seems to have a slightly unusual corporate structure, but am more put off by the fact that it seems to be the least traded company of its size that I have come across.Zero trades for today as I write, why is that?
devonplay
10 Feb 2015
900p We going to see 900p again?DL
