Deep Value? Good day almost up 9% on the news of the possible divestment. DL
Deep Value? Bloomberg: P/E Ratio 6.14 Dividend 5.08% Price to Book Ratio 0.8186 Price to Sales Ratio 0.9700 1 Year Return 0.44% EPS 2.21 Last Dividend Reported 0.7 Earnings Announcement for Period Ending Q3/2018: 08/08/2018 Discount to NAV 30-35%? Moat: one of the major players in Brazil, intergrated service model, been around 180 years. Market Cap over £360m, cash and near cash assets over around $277m (investment portfolio £5.70 of OCN share prive (May '18)) Downside: earning flat for the next couple of years, concentrated shareholder base, complex structure. Positive for me: conservative approach to running portfolio, Wilson Sons managed in a similar way - conservative and for the long term. I suspect there is good value, limited down side (no more that 20% - my stress position for EM), the share price is going to be help back by the structure and shareholding and EPS growth, there’s always going to be deep value! In the present volatility OCN might offer a good night sleep, within in the context of EM, and the management could be encouraged to reduce that might discount, so for me it’s an ADD or accumulate. DL
Wilson Sons Wilson Sons OCN’s listed interest.
From UEM's Report Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited (“Ocean Wilsonsâ€) had a lacklustre share price performance for 2017, up only by 5.9% despite a sound performance by its operaEng subsidiary Wilson Sons. Wilson Sons, the Brazilian port and shipping service provider, saw combined revenues at its two container terminals Tecon Rio Grande and Tecon Salvador increase by 26.3% benefiEng from a 3.7% increase in volumes along with a more favourable sales mix arising from an increase in import and cabotage flows. The towage business saw revenues for the period stay relaEvely flat with harbour manoeuvres increasing marginally by 2.4%, which given the downturn evident in the Brazilian offshore sector is a respectable result. Nevertheless, the shipyard conEnues to suffer on the back of weakness in the offshore oil and gas markets whilst the logisEcs sector benefited from increased demand for bonded warehousing space. The wholly owned investment porColio, Ocean Wilsons Investment Limited (“OWILâ€) saw an improvement during 2017 as funds under management increased by 14.2% with a net return of 16.5%. However, performance sEll lagged global and emerging market performance for the year. Consolidated revenue for the period rose by 8.6%, EBITDA grew 10.7% and normalised net income was up 24.0%. The improvement in OWIL and the operaEng cash flow from Wilson Sons led to an 11.1% increase in the dividend to USD 0.70 per share. During the period, UEM decreased its holding in Ocean Wilson by 10.3%. As at 31 March 2018, Ocean Wilsons’ discount to NAV was 29.8%. UEM are discussing with management how the narrowing of this discount is being addressed. DL
steel tarriff / brazil hi allany chance that the trumo's steel tarriffswill have an impac on wolsin's in brazil?appreciate it is likely to be small % of their businessbut they did buy a large asset last year so having a high fixed cost when volume reducing might be a negative, thoguth it might alos explain the OCN price weakness since JanAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLOCN is in my portfolio
Re: Good Results Indeed. And should have a good 2017 as well for British holdings, I think.
Good Results Great set of resultsHighlights Profit for the year increased US$51.4 million to US$80.7 million (2015: US$29.3 million) benefiting from strong exchange gains. Operating margins* were a healthy 21.2%, in line with prior year (2015: 21.5%). The Brazilian Real appreciated 17% in the period against the US Dollar at year end from R$3.90 at 1 January 2016 to R$3.26 at the year end. Earnings per share for the year up by 191% to 127.4 cents (2015: 43.7 cents). Dividend unchanged at 63 cents per share (2015: 63 cents per share). Investment portfolio decreased US$5.5 million to US$238.9 million (2015: US$244.4 million).
Challenging trading in Brazil Edison's note from this morning is up on Research Tree: "Ocean Wilsons Holdings (OCN) is an investment holding company that offers investors an unusual proposition: a controlling interest in a long-established Brazilian maritime services company (Wilson Sons) and a diversified investment portfolio, both run with a long-term view. While the trading background in Brazil is challenging, this is factored into market thinking and Wilson Sons has demonstrated resilience. An investor in OCN also gains the diversification provided by the global portfolio and a substantial discount cushion..."
Edison's note from this morning is up on Research Tree: "Ocean Wilsons Holdings (OCN) is an investment holding company that offers investors an unusual proposition: a controlling interest in a long-established Brazilian maritime services company (Wilson Sons) and a diversified investment portfolio, both run with a long-term view. While the trading background in Brazil is challenging, this is factored into market thinking and Wilson Sons has demonstrated resilience. An investor in OCN also gains the diversification provided by the global portfolio and a substantial discount cushion..."
Analysis report on Ocean Wilsons Holdings Great dividend stock, this infographic shows the recent performance [link]
Re: Results out Hi LD,I don't know where DigitalLook get their forecast, but Bloomberg gives similar figures - so I think the data is well sourced (and unlike Investors Chronicle, who's figures often don't match their parent, the FT !)- And you seem to agree that being Useful is more important than following a technical definition? - As your metric for small cap stocks being <100M market cap. is clearly useful - however excludes 90% of companies in the FTSE small cap index! (OCN are not classified, although by market cap they should currently fit near the middle of the range of small-cap index companies.)
Re: Results out Where does Digital Look get it's forecasts? Seems like pie in the sky. For 80p EPS, OCN would need to double their profit this year and they have not indicated this at all; how are they going to do that? PE is always historical unless you qualify it as Forward or prospective PE. The risk to OCN is that a lot of their business is oil related and low oil price means less work.Small cap / medium cap refers to the market value, not liquidity. Here's a definition of small cap as far as the UK is concerned plus a list of small cap shares; I don't see OCN among them:[link] Investor's Chronicle are rubbish. Their advice has lost me a lot of money over the years so that now I'm inclined to do the opposite of what they suggest!
Re: Results out Hi LD, to cover most of those points,65 cents was last year's figure. - Its around 80p for 2015 and 2016 (or 300M/30M if you look at raw figures). - After all, you wouldn't drive a car by looking in the rear view mirror, would you?!p.s. don't look sy HL for your figures, go directly at www.digitallook.com who supply all these financial companies with their data. - You'll get a much richer picture there, rather than looking through HL's blinkers.The yield figure is splitting hairs, its an above average income while waiting for the capital revaluation to take effect - and its years before interest rates compete with these yields. There's nothing wrong with UTL's yield, although I think its has a different fall/recovery profile to OCN.I don't see at OCN as an investment trust, I seem them as a company with growth, but also with a portfolio that mitigates their downside risk. -Although they're in a difficult economic environment at the moment.I don't think low dividend cover is a problem with OCN, it reflects they have started a policy of paying most of their income as dividend, so increasing profit will translate directly into higher dividends, which is good!OCN's underlying business volume is growing and they are in an essential business. I think the 'business' is fine, the issue for them is the Brazilian Real, and their economy which are the 'headwinds'. These will reach a base and then OCN assets and income should 'revert to mean' values in $, as will their share price. It's not so much as a rise in value rise, as a reversion to the mean from depressed valuations (like several other countries). I'm not sure how far OCN will carry on down first, but I think not far from here with their portfolio to support their valuation. (- And yes many markets may be at highs at the moment, but many others are not - Brazil, Resources, Shipping, and FTSE small caps among them).Finally, In my book, small caps would be any shares where there is not enough daily volume for the market to pinpoint the price accurately, so a market-maker decides a price to assign (and they generally put a 5% or 10% spread around that!). It's a more useful classification that a simple $ amount that doesn't take into account other factors which contribute 'small cap' risk (like restricted free float, location, etc.). - I think liquidity is as good an indication of a 'small cap' risk as the Market cap (while their Brazil location classifies them with the small-cap risk category for me).OCN isn't the only place to invest out there, but its a reasonable one. - and what do investors chronicle know! they recommended OCN as a buy at 1180, when it was obviously an at-the-top-of-the-range sell! Now they downgrade them to hold at 900, saying their recovery will too long! IC are just too late - they're just behind the curve!
Re: Results out Eagerbeaver66 - thank you for your reply but I find your figures are plain wrong.For a start PE is not below 10; on 65 cents it is more like 19 which Hargreaves lansdowne agrees with:[link] the dividend yield (barely covered) is around 4.6%; not 5%Long term trading range - depends how far back you go. Take the 10y graph on th eabove link and th etrading range could just as easily be 500p to 1250p or even 250p as a low!Sure they have reported NAV above the share price but so do many investment trusts on a discount e.g. UTL is 33% below NAV and pays 6.5% yieldThe spread today is 850-870 making a 2.3% spread; too much for a mid-cap share. Don't know why you call it small cap? Small cap in my book is under £100mI believe the trend is down for now. I can't see what will make them rise with markets already high generally and OCN stating that performance will be 'hindered' short term. How can it possibly rise? What is the driver for that?
Re: Results out Loassadosh makes a number of good points about earnings and the high fees on the investment portfolio but these are in my view outweighed by the large discount to NAV and the increased dividend. The Brazilian economy is struggling but will I believe recover and with it the OCN share price.