oldjoe1
30 Nov 2015
OCDO, TAKEOVER TALK......... OCDO Ocardo......Take over talk going on again. Ive had a speculative punt. [link] Suisse</b></u>Broker.<b><i>■ Three key events – one past, one future, one possible – will drive Ocado’sshare price over the medium term, in our view. We have reduced our FY15and FY16 EBITDA forecasts slightly, but maintain our Outperform rating andcurrent Target Price of 466p.■ Event one – the coming of Amazon: Reports of Amazon’s entry into homedelivery for groceries spooked investors, causing Ocado shares to fall 15%over the 10 days after the stories first appeared. We were less troubledgiven the very modest success of AmazonFresh in the US market. However,Amazon Pantry is much more concerning, as it plays to Amazon’s strengthsand exploits the weaknesses of the existing home delivery model.■ Event two – a third-party deal: Ocado’s self-imposed deal deadline (YE15)is approaching fast. Buyers may be wary of the very high complexityinvolved in a transaction, but the real roadblock is more likely the fear ofcannibalisation of their existing operations. Without online competition intheir respective home markets, the incentive to stay on the side-lines is high.■ Event three – an outright acquisition: We list a number of reasons whywe believe an acquisition of Ocado makes sense. We see Amazon and Wal-Mart as most likely to benefit strategically from a tie-up with Ocado.Ocado has neither the balance sheet, brand, management depth, nor the mandate toexpand internationally. Those limitations underpin why they are trying to commercialisetheir technology by using partners rather than by expanding their own operations. Butmany potential purchasers are focused on their home markets, which, as noted above,introduces the strong likelihood of cannibalisation.Ocado’s technology enables rapid expansions into new markets, using less capital than atraditional store network build-out would entail. Even in low-growth markets, market share is available if you can take it away from incumbents (like the Discounters are doing in theUK), and is where a winning online offer can become a genuine disruptive technology.With a market capitalisation of ~$3bn, Ocado is a small enough to be bought by a widerange of companies, but two companies stand out: Amazon and Wal-Mart. Neither haspublicly expressed any interest in acquiring Ocado, but both have characteristics thatmake a potential acquisition of it compelling:■ Few cannibalisation concerns;■ Balance sheets that would allow roll-outs to multiple countries simultaneously;■ Global brands with global ambitions;■ Global supplier relationships; and■ A strong interest in grocery.Almost as important, by buying Ocado, that technology would then become unavailable totheir competitors.We would also consider other larger retailers who have the ambition, vision, and balancesheet to embrace a fundamental change in the way they do business. We would includeTesco and Carrefour in this list.Wal-Mart has been redeveloping its e-commerce platform (their “Pangea” project), whichwill have at least some overlap with Ocado’s technology. We also know that Wal-Mart hasa lot on its plate right now, and while the financial cost would be minor, it would bestretched from an operations management perspective. We think any transaction that putsa greater burden on management would be taken as a negative by the market.Amazon is more opaque. Their AmazonFresh operations in the US are barely past the trialstage. However, if they were getting reasonable returns we would expect them to expandoperations to the 85% of Americans who are not within the current catchment areas.Instead, th
IAmShareCrazy
27 Nov 2015
Re: OCDO, Time To Go Long Again..... It's also one of the most shorted companies at 9.6% and still fundementally well overvalued. On a knife edge!
Mr Paul Thompson
25 Nov 2015
Re: OCDO, Time To Go Long Again..... Well I think you called that just right oldjoe1. I topped up one of my daughters yesterday (she was the only one with any cash).Also you will have noted that Nick Roditi increased his interest around the 20th of last month via his investment vehicles by 1.32 million shares to a total of 81,045,512, or 13% of the company, so I think we can safely assume that something is going to happen sooner rather than later.
cooperboy
19 Nov 2015
Re: Pencil cases i'm just pleased that everyone has one!! its all ted baker in my house-and ive missed the bus on that share!
Mr Paul Thompson
19 Nov 2015
Re: Pencil cases Crikey, you must have some scintillating conversations in your house.
Tenobas
19 Nov 2015
Pencil cases My daughter says that every one at school has rubbers and pencil cases from Ocado and they are rubbish because they break easily.
valeite
18 Nov 2015
Re: OCDO, Time To Go Long Again..... nervous hold for me Joe......we need something to happen with a foreign partner to propel the share price . otherwise it's a yo yo share
oldjoe1
18 Nov 2015
OCDO, Time To Go Long Again..... Hit support. And bouncing up. Long again on OCDO...........Buy Buy Buy Buy.
oldjoe1
28 Oct 2015
OCDO, Back OCDO Going Up To Xmas....... OCDO, Ocado (online supermarket)OCDO Ocado GRP, technicaly very sound, the stock tends to rise up to christmas, has a weighty rating but buyers like and buy.[link]
KestleMill
18 Sep 2015
Re: Today's rise I still hold shares so you could call me interested! I hadn't heard of that News Now site before, thanks for sharing. Lots of interesting info on there.
Mr Paul Thompson
17 Sep 2015
Re: Today's rise Broker upgrades, and vague speculation from Deutsche Bank about takeover target. You are obviously an interested follower KM, so go to 'Ocado News Now' and you will get all the latest info.Best wishe
KestleMill
17 Sep 2015
Today's rise Any ideas on the reason behind today's 10% rise?KM
Tenobas
21 Aug 2015
Re: Run for the hills. All clear, you can come out now. (If you havent already exploited it.)
Tenobas
17 Aug 2015
Run for the hills. You are up against Goldman Sachs![link]
Tenobas
12 Aug 2015
Re: what turnaround ! Interesting that your views are always the opposite of mine....
