Momentum slipping again The spot price has drifted back below the 30 day moving average and that is likely to preceed a further drop. My guess is that we will be in the mid £30's over the next month or so.
Re: New offer On the basis of your experience then it cant be a bad thing.Next seems to range trade between £38 and £40 awaiting the run up to dividends.Those should be interesting times given the mention of Special Dividends.There may as suggested be a 3rd profit warning but Maybe Mr Wolfson will have tried to draw a line in the sand at pw2. You would hope.Own due diligence
Retail Sales Non-food sales dropped for the first time in 5 years last month.Online sales have now risen to 20% of all non-food sales.According to the British Retail Consortium.
Re: New offer I appreciate the concern, but I wonder if having paid £20 for unlimited deliveries makes the customer more likely to order more? When I had this with ASOS and Amazon I certainly placed considerably more orders than I otherwise would have done. I think if you give delivery away then the effect is not the same, as the customer doesn't feel the need to "get their money's worth".
37% one year return Didn't see this shared last week. I read Redburns report and makes me confident in my holding in Next and to add further on any weakness. [link]
New offer Just bringing to your attention the wife has just received a message from Next letting her pay £20 for 1 year's free delivery normally £3.95 for clothes & £8.95 for furniture. Not read the small print yet to see if it includes furniture deliveries but @ £3.95 only 6 deliveries in the year and she (I mean me) is quids in.Think New Look is/was one of the first to offer this service at £10 for the year but someone is going to have to stand this cost and with the press all over couriers such as Hermes I can't see it being the courier that will carry the additional cost!Reminds me of the supermarkets with their home deliveries, I'm sure I read this is a loss making service but need to keep their customers.....
Re: Some Things Wrong "the childish name jokes could certainly do with some work"Hmm ... think the whole caboodle needs some work IMO ... hovering over the ignore button here.btw, NXT SP £41 by end March - you know it makes sense.
Uncle Warren on buy-backs At the risk of incurring the general wrath - as WB starts out, "discussions about share repurchases often become heated" - see below for Buffett's take, as highlighted in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual newsletter (last week). Sensible stuff IMHO, and also chimes closely with the Terry Smith take...As WB says, it is "puzzling" that so few companies disclose the level beyond which they will not repurchase stock. Berkshire is one (at 120% of book value, though they rarely get the chance to execute)... Next is a notable other (at least historically).---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ------"In the investment world, discussions about share repurchases often become heated. But Id suggest that participants in this debate take a deep breath: Assessing the desirability of repurchases isnt that complicated.From the standpoint of exiting shareholders, repurchases are always a plus. Though the day-to-day impact of these purchases is usually minuscule, its always better for a seller to have an additional buyer in the market. For continuing shareholders, however, repurchases only make sense if the shares are bought at a price below intrinsic value. When that rule is followed, the remaining shares experience an immediate gain in intrinsic value. Consider a simple analogy: If there are three equal partners in a business worth $3,000 and one is boughtout by the partnership for $900, each of the remaining partners realizes an immediate gain of $50. If the exiting partner is paid $1,100, however, the continuing partners each suffer a loss of $50. The same math applies with corporations and their shareholders. Ergo, the question of whether a repurchase action is value-enhancing or value-destroying for continuing shareholders is entirely purchase-price dependent.It is puzzling, therefore, that corporate repurchase announcements almost never refer to a price above which repurchases will be eschewed. That certainly wouldnt be the case if a management was buying an outside business. There, price would always factor into a buy-or-pass decision.When CEOs or boards are buying a small part of their own company, though, they all too often seem oblivious to price. Would they behave similarly if they were managing a private company with just a few owners and were evaluating the wisdom of buying out one of them? Of course not.It is important to remember that there are two occasions in which repurchases should not take place, even if the companys shares are underpriced. One is when a business both needs all its available money to protect or expand its own operations and is also uncomfortable adding further debt. Here, the internal need for funds should take priority. This exception assumes, of course, that the business has a decent future awaiting it after the needed expenditures are made.The second exception, less common, materializes when a business acquisition (or some other investment opportunity) offers far greater value than do the undervalued shares of the potential repurchaser. Long ago, Berkshire itself often had to choose between these alternatives. At our present size, the issue is far less likely to arise.My suggestion: Before even discussing repurchases, a CEO and his or her Board should stand, join hands and in unison declare, What is smart at one price is stupid at another. "
Re: Some Things Wrong Don't you worry about me. I'm here for high jinks as well as investment advice.Mr Wong said:" I also agree yesterdays rise was somewhat unwarranted considering nothing materially changed from the previous day, hence my rationale to sell and bank 5%. My friend Mr Fuu King....."Looks to me as if those english lessons are superfluous, but the childish name jokes could certainly do with some work.Some of our younger readers might not spot your sign-off reference to 'Full Metal Jacket' - I'm interested if that's your favorite film? Favorite films can give away a few clues to people's personalities.Mine's 'Wall Street', obviously.
Re: Out Mr Wong , you should have put that money in Carillion and got another 5% in one day today.Even though the service I get from Next is really bad I have taken your advice to BUY from 2 days ago and bought some more NXT shares @£40 - that was before I saw your later advice from one day ago which was to SELL.I am now sitting on a bigger loss than I was before but oh well, I look forward to your Target Price of 4500. I think the tide has turned and we've hit the bottom around 38/39.
Re: Out "I also agree yesterdays rise was somewhat unwarranted considering nothing materially changed from the previous day"STW -- I think the whole market went up yesterday because of the general excitement of Mr T issuing $billions in infrastructure investments - assuming he can conjure up the cash and the will of Congress.Not sure how it effects NXT in the foreseeable, but who knows eh!Games - Holding off seems like a sensible approach, as another profit warning (no'3) is not impossible.
Re: Out Mr Wong - I was out and about yesterday, but obviously a nice one-day move on little fundamental news.========== ========== Mr Bill thank you for the reply, it is very refreshing to get a reasoned response rather than someone throwing toy from pram because person take opposing view.I decided to hold off the buy today as, like you I am not quite sure of the current direction and agree it could be 50 or it could be 30. I also agree yesterdays rise was somewhat unwarranted considering nothing materially changed from the previous day, hence my rationale to sell and bank 5%. My friend Mr Fuu King, he put money in Swiss account that pay only 5% per year, so Mr Wong very happy man with 5% 1 day.Mr Wong wait patiently now to buy again.Mr Wong
Re: Out "Good luck with the sale and buy back strategy"Games - otherwise known as "trading"?Mr Wong - I was out and about yesterday, but obviously a nice one-day move on little fundamental news. A reasonably influential broker upgrade, but these things don't have any lasting impact, unless backed up by a genuine turn in sentiment and, more tangibly, meaningful institutional buying interest. We will have to see if that is the case.As an investor rather than trader, not something to get excited about for me. The bigger question is, does this sustain meaningful recovery back to £50, maybe even £60 over the next year or so, or will ongoing operational woes continue to weigh on the SP?But good luck on trading this one - could be a bumpy ride in the short term?
Re: Some Things Wrong perhaps it's your odd sense of humour?Some people might call your parody of a far eastern culture somewhat thoughtless.========== ========== That was question not answer Mr. Question I ask again, where have all the disappointed posters of yesterday gone, it most unusual for big rise on stock for shareholder not be happy, yesterday they sad and disappointed?FYI I am of Eastern descent, I cannot help if my mother tongue flick back and forth when write, do you have problem with Eastern culture? Don't worry, next week I start school for how to use English command more thoroughly, then I too shall speak good like my brother All, he study University here for all life, he very clever man, he pick good stocks like Master Yap.I think I sold too early and tomorrow I going to buy some more share in Next, that why I rate these share buy, Next good stock I love next looooong time.Ah SoMr WongP.S You not like my style, you not have to read, use ignore function it free to use.
Re: Some Things Wrong perhaps it's your odd sense of humour?Some people might call your parody of a far eastern culture somewhat thoughtless.